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		Rules for 2009-10 Jumps TTF Competition

		Column 2 Rule The first step to entering this competition is to reduce the large official master list of horses down to a manageable shortlist from which to perm your lines of ten. Column 2 is split into five main sections, with some sections being further divided to create a total of nine subgroups.  Column 2 specifies a maximum number of horses per section or subgroup.  Those maximums automatically limit the final total number of horses in the shortlist to not more than 36.  The sections and subgroups in column 2 are carefully designed so as to ensure that each line of ten permed from the list will be properly proportioned with regard to the types of horses usually needed to win the competition.  The use of subgroups also makes the perming of this number of selections a far more viable proposition.  Perming instructions are specified in column 3 in the shortlist.
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		Columns 3 and 4 Rule All horses which are under consideration for the final shortlist (i.e. column 3) theoretically begin life in column 4 and are progressively moved over to column 3, during October/early November, as and when they become serious considerations for the final shortlist.  Each horse, whether in col 3 or col 4, must be put in the most appropriate subgroup as defined in col 2.  Horses which do not conform to any of the first eight subgroups defined in col 2 can be put in the ninth subgroup, a small Miscellaneous section at the bottom of the list.  The final horses in col 3 should be listed (i.e. weighted) within their subgroups in a perceived order of merit, as judged at the beginning of the competition in November, to ensure that a realistic mix of stronger looking horses interlaced with lesser lights can be maintained when putting together the lines of ten. The subgroups in the shortlist are generally blocks of four horses.  Once any such block in col 3 is full, no other horse can be moved from col 4 to that block in col 3 except if an existing horse is taken out of the block and moved back to col 4 or is deleted.  This stringent, disciplined approach keeps the mind focused at all times on keeping the quality in col 3 high but the quantity reasonably low.  Inevitably, many horses starting out in col 4 can never make it to col 3 because of these crucial quantity limits.  When the competition gets underway, most of the horses that were left in col 4 may be deleted from it as otherwise they become an unnecessary distraction (especially if they start winning!).  One exception is if horses left in col 4 were contributions emailed in by followers of the system - by not deleting those particular horses from col 4, a check can be seen on how well or badly the offerings performed. If there are not enough worthy contenders to completely fill a particular block of four horses, then a blank space should be left somewhere in the group.  Poor horses should not be put in just because there is a space it could go in on the off-chance it might do something.  Deliberately leaving 'vacant slots', where appropriate, are an integral part of the system.  Any such vacant slots must be permed into the lines of ten just as if they were a horse, albeit one with no name initially.  The blank spaces are then to be used later, as a final step, like a wildcard, for fine-tuning any lines containing a blank space.  More on that is further down in a wildcard rule.
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		2½m Chasers Rule - Paddy Power Gold Cup (November) & Ryanair Chase (March) The first bonus race in the competition is the Paddy Power Gold Cup and it is the first race specifically targeted by the system's shortlist.  The race is important because the likely runners and the betting are common knowledge before the deadline for posting competition entries.  That means a huge number of entrants will kick off with the PPGC winner's 50+ points and you must, therefore, try hard, within reason, to be one them - with the winner of this race in a good proportion of your lines.  Otherwise you will be toiling behind from the very start.  In particular, if the actual winner of the race proves to be a popular fancy in the betting, and you do not have it in any of your lines, you could be in very deep trouble right from the off.  That is because those players who do have the (well-fancied) winner will be people who know what they are doing - so many of them will have it in strong, sensible lines.  On the other hand, if the race is won by an outsider, missing it should not normally matter in the long run because those players who have fanciful horses in their lines are going to be people whose lines will usually lack quality in depth - and will, eventually, probably be caught and overtaken by many of the more rational entries.  For those reasons, the system concentrates for its selections on just the first four in the very latest available ante-post betting for the race.  The perming instructions in the third section down in the shortlist ensure that you cover only those four market leaders - and use only one of them in each line.  If, in any year, you were to fancy only two or three of the first four in the betting, you would then just cover those two or three, instead of all four - but still with only one in any single line. When one of your lines of ten has a vacant slot in it from one of the other, non-PPGC subgroups, this is the only valid circumstance under which you could consider putting in a second Paddy Power selection (still chosen only from the original four) in the one line (i.e. as a wildcard).  However, you would need to be very confident of one of the two horses actually winning the race because having two Paddy Power losers in a single line would be as good as £12 down the drain straight away. Sometimes, a horse in the first four in the PPGC ante-post betting may not be in the TTF competition.  In that event, its position in the PPGC subgroup may be left as a vacant slot rather than bringing in the riskier 5th in the betting to make up the four.  This means the three named horses will be permed more tightly in your lines, which is a very good thing if one of them wins the race.  But it also means you could leave some of your lines containing that vacant slot without a PPGC horse in them by using the vacant slot as a full wildcard (in accordance with the wildcard rule further down).  This could be very advantageous if the race were to be won either by the fancied horse which is not in the TTF or by an unfancied outsider. The later Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham is a higher-grade bonus race over a fairly similar distance to the Paddy Power.  The Ryanair is not specifically targeted by the system in November.  Consideration of this particular race is left till substitution time in late February.  However, if, in any year, there appears to be a standout candidate, in November, which is known to have the Ryanair as its long-range target, is not a runner in the Paddy Power, does not fit into any of the other main categories, and warrants not being left out of the shortlist generally, the solution is for the horse to go in the Miscellaneous section [past examples: Noland, a 2½m chaser put in our shortlist's Misc section in November 2008; Voy Por Ustedes put in the Misc section in November 2009].
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		3m+ Chasers Rule - Hennessy, King George & Cheltenham Gold Cup types The 3m+ Chasers' group is where each line is loaded up with three, quality, seasoned 3m+ chasers. There was a time in the competition when half of the 50-point bonus races were for these staying chasers, so it often used to pay to weight entries heavily in favour of them (extra ones could always be added via the system's wildcard opportunities or at substitution time when it used to be in January).  Subsequently, however, new bonus races have been added to the competition for completely different types of horses (most recently, two races for novice chasers and one for 2m 5f chasers).  The overall effect has been to reduce to only one third the number of bonus races for the seasoned staying chasers, hence using wildcards to weight some lines with more than three of those may not necessarily be as advantageous as it sometimes was in the past.
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		Miscellaneous Group Rule A strong staying hurdler, one which could win the World Hurdle at Cheltenham, should go in the No. 1 slot in the first block in the Miscellaneous section.  If a second staying hurdler is worth adding, it can be weighted further down, say at No. 5.  The other six spots can be filled with anything as long as each one is seriously expected to win at least two races and clock up some good points (e.g. 20+50, 20+25+25 or 20+20+20 etc.). It is usually difficult to foresee as many as eight 'miscellaneous' horses all capable of achieving such scores, in which case one or two vacant slots can be left somewhere in the group for use as wildcard opportunities.  This would also keep the final number of horses below 36, which is quite desirable from a perming point of view.
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		Wildcard Rule Part 1 (of 3) Using Vacant Slots as Wildcard selections If, in any block of four horses, not enough good-enough horses can be identified, pre-competition, to fill the block, or one of the four horses fancied to go in the block is not actually in the TTF competition, that will leave an empty space.  These vacant slots are an important feature of the system.  If, in the final shortlist in November, there are, say, 32 named horses, that would leave four vacant slots dotted around the shortlist.  Those vacant slots are basically a good thing to have as it means the base horses will be permed more tightly.  But there should never be too many empty spaces or one runs the risk of not having enough runners through the season to keep one's interest going. A vacant slot in a block must always be regarded as a horse in its own right, albeit an unnamed horse initially.  A vacant slot must not be ignored or bypassed.  It should be permed into your lines of ten in proportion (i.e. weighted) according to its position in its respective block (e.g. if selection 1 in a block of four horses is shown as a vacant slot, it should go in twice as many lines than if selection 4 were the vacant slot).  When there are several vacant slots in the shortlist, you may find that two or even three vacant slots might be permed into a few of your individual lines of ten.  Normally, though, most lines will inevitably have ten named horses straight off and no vacant slots. Actual names should be put in the vacant slots as a very final step.  Hence a vacant slot effectively works like a wildcard and, as such, can be a very powerful tool for the final fine-tuning, strengthening and varying of individual lines. There are two ways in which a vacant slot in a block of four can be used.  Either or both ways can be used if the same vacant slot appears in more than one of your lines of ten.  Firstly, the vacant slot in a line may be filled by any of the other adjacent horses in its immediate base block or base section which does not already feature in the line in question.  That will mean the horses in the base block or section are being permed more tightly in your entry, which is obviously a very good thing if any of those horses prove to be high scorers  Alternatively, a vacant slot in a line can be filled by any horse from anywhere in column 3 which does not already feature in the line in question.  That will mean the vacant slot is serving as a full-blown system wildcard.  This latter strategy is what is probably more likely to pull off a jackpot win or a monthly bonus prize though, mathematically, it will always be difficult in practice to have brought in the right horse as the wildcard in the relevant line. If the same vacant slot is permed into more than one of your lines of ten, the vacancy does not have to be filled with the same wildcard name each time - the horses which fill vacancies can be varied at will.  But take care not to put in a horse which is already in the line - this error is surprisingly easy to make with postal entries where horses are, ultimately, identified only by a four-digit number, not by their name.
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		Wildcard Rule Part 2 Using Linked Vacant Slots as Linked Wildcard selections If, pre-competition, one horse is known to be strongly fancied for two different target races in the shortlist, then one of those instances may either be used to bring in another horse from column 4 of the same subgroup or, if there isn't one worth bringing in, be left as a blank space, in a position corresponding with the perceived strength of the horse relative to the others in the block, for use as a 'linked wildcard'.  Then, whenever that 'linked wildcard' happens to be permed into a line of ten which does not contain the dual-race horse, it has duly been flagged up that consideration should firstly be given to bringing that horse into the line as the 'linked wildcard'.  If the horse is not brought in, that line would, it should be borne in mind, be left without that particular fancied horse for both of the key races.  That may or may not be what you want depending on the overall makeup of your other lines but, at least, the 'linked' label ensures the situation cannot go unnoticed. As an actual, past example of a linked wildcard, in the 2006-7 season, Kauto Star was the ante-post favourite for the Queen Mother Chase and the King George Chase, both at Cheltenham.  A ludicrous situation as Kauto would obviously run in only one of them.  It suited us, strategically, to list Kauto in the Queen Mother's block, consequently leaving the first line in the King George block empty and, hence, designated as a 'linked wildcard'.  That meant, in lines of ten which contained that 'linked wildcard', priority would accordingly be given to including Kauto if it wasn't already in the line in question. Conversely, if a linked vacancy happens to be permed into a line of ten which already contains the dual-race horse or, if the dual-race horse is not of sufficient calibre to warrant being in too many lines, then the linked vacancy can be used as a normal wildcard.  Which means the vacancy can be filled by any horse from the same block/same section/any other section, in column 3, provided, of course, that horse does not already appear in the line in question.  If the same linked vacancy appears in more than one line of ten, and is used as a full wildcard in more than one of them, a different horse can be brought in each time as the wildcard, if that seems the tactical thing to do. Wildcard Rule Part 3 Validation For the purpose of validating the system's performance, selections for filling any vacant slots shall be taken only from the named horses in column 3, not from any of those in column 4 nor from all the others completely outside of the table.
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		Bonus Horse Rule Substitution time, as it used to be known, used to take place during the second week in January each year.  From 2009, it was moved to late February and seriously improved.  Substitutions were no longer £5 to make, per horse, but free, and two horses no longer needed to be taken out as it became a case, after subs have been added, of counting the best ten from twelve per line.  These were great changes as they took all of the stress and cost out of substitution time.  Delaying the transfers to just before Cheltenham was another nice touch as it means all persons who, by March, are already out of contention for the overall prize (i.e. most of us!), can, at least, bolster some lines in the hope of being one of the two people who will win the consolation prizes for most points at Cheltenham (£25K) and/or for March (£10K). One of the beauties of adhering to our system is that you will find, year in, year out, it will automatically take you into the Cheltenham Festival with a good half of your lines still looking to have every possibility, on paper at least, of being capable of winning you the £25K prize.  So, even if you are dead and buried for the overall prize by Christmas, the feeling of anticipation and excitement will still continue right through to March. What you have to do, come the end of February, for any promising lines you still have for the overall prize or, more probably, for the Cheltenham £25K consolation prize, is pick pairs of bonus horses to add to each such line from any of the original horses anywhere in column 3 in the system's shortlist which are not already used in the line in question, and/or from the few new names which will be added at the foot of the shortlist at the end of February. You should vary the horses/pairs-of-horses you add to your lines to suit the actual make-up and strengths of each individual line. People who intend to make their substitutions by internet should leave themselves sufficient time.  If you have never done it online before, do a practice run a couple of days before the deadline day so you will know exactly how the process works when you come to do it for real.  Furthermore, the Racing Post entry form (for 2008-9) carried a warning not to leave it to the last minute for fear the demand might crash the Tote's main server computer.
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		Totesport Trophy Hurdle Rule This race is run in mid-February and has always been a 50-point bonus race.  However, it has never specifically been targeted by our system.  The problem is, nobody knows in November, pre-competition, what is likely to run in this race and, even if they did, they still would not have a clue what would win it.  Some long-range hints, tips or rumours always abound for the race at competition entry time but, invariably, are best resisted. The race is sponsored by the Tote, who jointly administer the Ten To Follow competition, which explains how a moderate handicap hurdle race comes to carry bonus points it does not relatively deserve.  The race has almost never had any influence on the final outcome of the overall competition. From 2009, the substitution window comes a month after this particular race has been run - so that finally dispensed with the other temptation which was to waste a January substitute on the race.
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		Grand National Rule In all the years the competition has been running, the horse to win the Grand National has never come from the four horses which were heading the ante-post market in November.  In addition, the ante-post favourite in January (when that used to be the time for making substitutions), has never gone on to win the National either.  And the ante-post favourite at the end of February (the later time for making substitutions, from 2009) has not gone on to win it either [first instance was in 2009, Black Apalachi, 12/1 fav on Feb 25, though not on the day, led till fell]. Sometimes, by the beginning of April, horses have emerged out of our shortlist's Hennessy/King George/Gold Cup section (including any January subs to that section) as actual runners in the National.  These horses have usually looked far better, on the day of the National, than anything which could have been picked back in either November or January.  Yet none of those horses ever won it either!  [In 2009, there were no GN runners from the shortlist.] Up to and including 2009, on only two occasions did anybody ever have the National winner in a line which was able to leapfrog over everybody else and snatch the first prize at the last gasp.  On both occasions it was back in the days before January substitutes were allowed and, in both cases, neither player had put the horse in their lines in November as a potential winner of the National.  And they were both one-off instances as none of the other nine prize-money winners on those two occasions needed the National winner to win their shares of the money. The later date, from 2009, for adding substitute horses does now mean the National will be only 6 weeks away.  And, for the first time ever, before substitution time, the official entries are known [closing time is end of January] and the official weights are known [publication time is early February].  So, there are now very serious prospects that this former most difficult of races could play a much bigger part in the final roll-call of the competition.  [But it still didn't in 2009, when the race was won by a 100/1 shot.] Addendum 4.4.09 - Several of the near-leaders in Feb 2009 did take a chance with GN substitutions (mostly with Black Apalachi, the then favourite).  But, in practice, it merely turned out they had deprived themselves of subbing in, say, the Arkle or RSA winner (much easier prospects), thus losing ground at Cheltenham which could not then be made up at Aintree even if their GN selections had subsequently won [which they didn't].  So that becomes a further, new, negative consideration against subbing for the GN, even with the later subs date.
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		Betting Rule NEVER back your own horses in the TTF competition.  It's the kiss of death.  If you are in a syndicate, that goes for everybody in the syndicate too.  Don't let anybody break that rule.  If they do, and it loses, lynch them! If you must have a bet in a race in which you have a TTF runner, the best strategy is to look for the most dangerous rival in the race to yours and, provided it has an obvious good chance of winning, cover yourself by backing the danger.  If the danger horse is also running for any of your opponents in the TTF, so much the better.  A bigger stake might then be called for. This is a form of 'cover betting', sometimes called 'insurance betting' or 'superstition betting'.  Where you are backing not the horse you want to win or expect to win but a danger horse which is genuinely more than capable of spoiling things.  Cover betting works because race results are never pre-determined beforehand, they are almost always the result of, or subject to, what scientists call the 'Chaos Theory'. What your cover bet will actually mean, in practice, is that you are going into the race not with a single-edged sword, not even a double-edged sword, but with a triple-edged sword.  You will either (i) collect the points if your TTF horse wins, which is great, or (ii) collect the cash if the other horse wins, which is great consolation, or (iii) if you get neither (i.e. some unexpected rag wins), you will, at least, have successfully put the mockers on your opponents' horse and ensured you do not lose any ground to them.  It's basically a win-win situation as it were - as long as you haven't bet more than you can afford to lose.
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		Disclaimer Every effort has been made to provide accurate and helpful guidance for entering the Totesport Ten To Follow competition with a view to winning it with our system.  This service is provided by fellow TTF enthusiasts entirely in good faith and no liability can be accepted by Capital Ratings nor by any other party or persons involved therewith or contributing thereto in the event of any information inadvertently proving to be erroneous, misleading or mistaken.  The system's shortlist, rules, permutation instructions and substitution guidelines must be used only and purely on that gentleman's understanding. As with all gambling systems, past success does not guarantee future success - so always keep your outlay within reason so there is no risk of any anxiety being caused to yourself or to those close to you.  This competition is mostly about enjoying the excitement and anticipation of what might happen each time your horses run.  Actually getting the best winners to line up in one line, with or without our system, is always going to be extremely hard and can only ever be achieved by a tiny handful of players each year.
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