2008 Flat TTF

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The Racing Section

by Capital Ratings

2008

reserved

System for the Totesport Ten To Follow : 2008 Flat

06 May 2008: We like the new changes made to the rules this year for the Flat competition. The return to a later, post-Guineas start is to everybody's benefit. And the ability to add two wildcard-like 'bonus horses' to each line, for free, without having to substitute two horses out of the line as before, will take all the stress and cost out of substitution time.

The Flat version of our TTF system has, therefore, been revived (below). It is basically unchanged from when it last featured here five years ago in 2003. Except we have upgraded the general layout of the shortlist table, and also modified both that table and the traditional summary table under it to reflect the new rule on bonus substitute horses.

You will find there are no horses' names in the list for this initial revival. It is just the raw method, not a complete approach as on past occasions. This will still be extremely useful to everybody who intends to enter the Flat competition because, by using our formula, albeit with horses of your own choosing, this will ensure every line you enter will be consisting of the right kind of horses in the right kind of proportions. And, as all TTF fans know, well-constructed lines are half the battle in this exciting competition. Use the table below like a blank template in which to write your horses' names in column 3. To do that, you can either print off a paper copy of the blank table or, better still, save the whole page to your desktop as a "Web Page, complete (.htm file)". Doing the latter will mean horses' names can actually be typed into the list, and... cont. in RH col.

cont. from LH col.

edited, directly on your computer screen. To do that open the saved .htm file in any word processor later than Word 97, or a web editor like the free KompoZer. XML word processors should be best (e.g. WordPerfect, Open Office or Word 2007).

The template can be used to list any number of horses from 18 all the way up to 36. To cover a basic 18 selections, horses' names would be written against all the green numbers in col 3. To cover between 19 and 27 horses, further names would be added against the yellow numbers. To cover between 28 and 36 horses (recommended), more names would be added against the pink numbers.

If you are going in for the Flat, we hope you will do so using our table and rules below as it could give you a head-start over the entrants with no real strategy.

23 May 2008: Immediately after the closing time for entries, we inserted, in the previously blank table below, the final selections for the Oaks and Derby sections. These sels are fixed by a system rule and were added basically so followers could check if they had applied the Oaks/Derby rule correctly.

You can scroll this page down, or use the link here to jump straight down to this season's comments in running, or you can look back at the previous Jump season's final performance.


	The system - The competition's master list of 500 horses has to be reduced down to 36 horses maximum, by writing names in column 3 below. The table automatically subdivides the horses into a number of...		smaller, highly-focused subgroups. This simplifies final perming and ensures well-structured lines. The rules are in the table or have links in the table. Perming instructions are in column 3.

N.B. The table and rules below are for use when the TTF competition has a later start i.e. just before the Oaks/Derby, as prevailed in 2001, 2, 3 & 8. The system is not designed for those years when the competition starts early i.e. before the 1000/2000 Guineas.

A key to abbreviations appears after the shortlist.


Sctn	Categories	SHORTLIST (this col)		Notes
	Col 2	Col 3		Col 4

1. Sels 1 & 2	Milers Up to 8 rqd. More 3yos, than 4 or 5yos, more c & h than f & m.	Perming Instructions (1) - When entering the Flat TTF in May 2008, for your first line of ten, start by taking any 2 from below, then continue down to note (2) in the next section...		Use example left when listing horses i.e. show: horse's 4-digit ID (saves looking it up later); form figs (optional); horse's name (stops accidental duplications); age/sex (avoids too many of wrong kind); trainer (reveals strengths and any minor trnrs). Put strongest miler in line 1, weakest in line 8. If you can't see 8 high-quality milers, leave blanks somewhere in between. More on using blanks as wildcards later. Milers' rule
		0	1511 32-1 ExampleOnly 3c Stoute
		1
		2
		3
		4
		5
		6
		7
		8

2. Sel 3	1¼ milers Up to 4 rqd. Mainly 4 & 5yos, more c & h than f & m.	(2) ...take any 1 from below, then continue to note (3)...		Keep quality high. Put best horse at No. 1, weakest at 4. If you don't fancy four, leave a blank somewhere. 1¼ mile rule
		0	1531 21-2 ExampleOnly 5m Cecil
		1
		2
		3
		4

3. Sel 4	Oaks Runners Up to 4 rqd. All 3yo f's.	(3) ...take any 1 from below, then continue to note (4)...		Use 1st 4 in latest poss ante-post betting. If you don't rate one, leave a blank line level with its posn. in betting. 23/5/08 - shown left are actual sels specified by rule for this section. Oaks rule
		1	1269 Lush Lashes 3f Ir [0 54 / 2 25 25 2]
		2	1235 Katiyra 3f Ir [3 / 12 20 3]
		3	1383 Sail 3f Ir [00 / 00]
		4	1070 Cape Amber 3f C-Hyam [00 / 30 12]

4. Sels 5 & 6	Derby Runners Up to 4 rqd. All 3yo c's.	(4) ...take any 2 from below, then continue to note (5)...		Same note applies as for Oaks section above. Derby rule
		1	Blank line (fav not in comp) see Derby Rule (c)
		2	1095 Curtain Call 3c Cumani [05L / ]
		3	1443 Tartan Bearer 3c Stoute [12 3 / ]
		4	1436 Tajaweed 3c Stoute [0 / 0]

5. Sels 7 & 8	1½ milers Up to 8 rqd. More 4yos than 3 or 5yos, more c & h than f & m.	(5) ...take any 2 from below, then continue down to note (6)...		Keep the quality high. An optimum overall number of named horses is about 32, leaving 4 blanks somewhere as wildcards. MD rule
		1
		2
		3
		4
		5
		6
		7
		8

6. Sels 9 & 10	Sprinters, Stayers, others, or wildcards (blanks) Up to 8 rqd.	(6) ...take any 2 from below, then continue down to note (7)...		The weakest section overall - so a good place to leave a couple of blank spaces somewhere to play as wildcard selections. In different lines, perm, say, a stayer and a sprinter, a stayer and another etc, but use a stayer and a blank, or two blanks, in more lines than any other combo. Blanks are governed by a wildcard rule.
		1
		2
		3
		4
		5
		6
		7
		8
		(7) ...on completing your first line of ten, return to the top of the list and pick another line of ten, choosing differing names and the odd blank. Repeat this until you have completed the number of lines you intend to enter. We recommend, in your first four lines, that you do all 36 selections, inclusive of any blanks, so you have covered every named horse and every blank at least once in your overall entry. In each of those first four lines, mix stronger horses with more speculative horses. Then, in your subsequent lines, start to whittle out your lesser fancies so as to pull more of your stronger fancies and the odd blank together. Fill in the blanks in any lines with blanks last of all, using the blanks as wildcards to fine-tune the lines concerned. We suggest 12 lines in all - this is enough to give you something to look forward to through the whole season without breaking the bank if things go wrong this year for the shortlist or for your choices of tens from it. Read more on perming.

7. July sels 11 & 12	Bonus Horses	Jul 2008 Bonus Horses - If, in July, you have any promising lines, you can add two new horses to each such line, for free, creating lines of 12, from which the best ten will ultimately be counted in the comp. The pairs to be added can be chosen from any horses from anywhere in the shortlist above, provided they are not already in the line in question, or from the brand new names below....		During June/early July, pencil in, on the left, the names of any horses that are not in the shortlist's sections 1 to 6 but which have emerged as strong prospects to win valuable races in the latter half of the season. Also show their age, sex, trainer and likely preferred distance as this may aid choosing which should go in which lines.
		1
		2
		3
		4
		5
		6
		7
		8
Based on an original system by Capital Ratings. No copyright restrictions on printing, copying, altering or uploading provided the above acknowledgement stays in place.

Key to abbreviations possibly used in the above shortlist:-

6, 7 etc. = a horse's age denoted in red is outside of the preferred age range indicated in column 2 (but see note 'red' just below).

BH = Bonus Horse(s) c = colt(s) col = column d = dead eas = on easy list f = filly or fillies Fr = French trainer g = gelding h = horse(s) inj = injured Ir = Irish Trainer m = mare(s) out = out for rest of competition pref = preferably red = any remarks in red are a definite negative for the competition, though not necessarily a bar to inclusion in col 3 sel = selection sm = small trnr = trainer

	Best-possible line of ten...

Type		Horse	Pts		Pts

Milers (2 per line)	•		0
Milers (2 per line)	•		0

1¼ mlr (1 per line)	•		0

Oaks sel (1 per line)	•	Lush Lashes	104

Derby sels (2 per line)	•	Wildcard	??
Derby sels (2 per line)	•	Tartan Bearer	12

Middle Dist (2 per line)	•		0
Middle Dist (2 per line)	•		0

Sprinter, stayer, other(s), or wildcard(s)	•		0
Sprinter, stayer, other(s), or wildcard(s)	•		0

Bonus Horse 1					00
Bonus Horse 2					00

		System's best 10 from 12 above		=	000
		Real leader's score		=	000

		Official Leaderboard, Flat 2008 (if still online)

Comments in running (last one first)

17.09.08 - Oaks' section in shortlist updated after Cape Amber's win (12 points).

No more comments are planned here. Next month (October), this page will be superseded by our shortlist for the 2008-9 Jumps' competition.

13.09.08 - Oaks' section updated after Katiyra's second win (20 points).

07.09.08 - Oaks' section, and summary table, updated after Lush Lashes' second win (25 points).

22.08.08 - Oaks' section updated after Lush Lashes' first win (25 points).

13.08.08 - Oaks' section updated after Katiyra's first win (12 points).

22.06.08 - By the end of Royal Ascot, and just four weeks into the competition, no less than seven of the ten most popular horses in the competition had scored points, accumulating 358 points between them - good enough for 36th place on the leaderboard. There could be no better justification than that for the reintroduction this year of a later starting date. Much fairer - and more encouraging - for everybody.

Kingsgate Native, earner of a huge 87 points in today's Golden Jubilee sprint at Royal Ascot, was in 1,061 lists. Ironically, one fan of our method emailed us for our opinion before the comp as he was intending to bypass sprinters. Sprinters are, generally, a liability in this competition, but our reply merely pointed out that racing is governed by the Chaos Theory. And, of that, there was never to be a better example than Kingsgate Native! By a small, one-horse trainer, it ran down the field in Ascot's opening-day's Group 1 Kings Stand Stakes, came out again only four days later, still at Ascot, in an even tougher Group 1 Jubilee Stakes - and stormed home at 33-1! While, in the same race, the 9th most popular horse in the competition, Sahkee's Secret, opened the 4-1 favourite but trailed in a dismal tailed off last. If that's not the Chaos Theory in action, we don't know what is.

Sprinting always was the trickiest and least consistent category in the competition and, evidently, it still is. Having said that, though, section 6 in the shortlist does require sprinters to be given some consideration. And, for anybody who might have looked for one or two sprinters to include, Kingsgate Native could easily have been a 2nd choice if not the 1st choice sprinter to put in. As a juvenile in 2007, Kingsgate Native twice mixed it with older horses, even winning the Nunthorpe Stakes, and finishing 2nd in the Prix de l'Abbaye, it finished 2007 as the joint 6th best 2yo, and it had not put in a disappointing run in 2008 to put anybody off before entry time for the competition closed. So there were a few pointers there for any optimists hoping to find some plausible theory in amongst all the chaos!

10.06.08 - The first leader-board appeared in today's Racing Post. The first prize is £89K - up £10K on this time a year ago but, this year, the prize cannot be boosted any higher as substitutions are now free. The initial leader was on 190 points - with 6 winners and the Derby 2nd. Five of those winners were among the ten most-popular horses in the competition, which was good to see - that could never have happened so soon in the preceding four seasons when the competition was starting too early. New Approach would be in about 2/3rds of all lines entered, alongside Getaway (most-popular) and Zarkava (2nd most popular).

It was a pretty promising first two weeks and we noticed some supporters of our method had succeeded in notching up the 166 points minimum needed to have their name on that first leader board. Let's hope they can stay up there right to the end.

07.06.08 - A mere 12 points for the Derby section from Tartan Bearer's 2nd place. However, all system followers will, of course, have had the actual winner, New Approach (3rd most popular horse in the comp.), in their shortlists either in section 1 (milers) or, possibly, in section 5 (1½ milers). So most followers should have kicked off with the maximum 66 points from the season's first bonus races in some of their lines. Can't ask for more than that at this early stage.

06.06.08 - The first two home in the Oaks today were unfancied and not even in the competition's official list of horses. So no points from the Oaks for anybody. Uncharacteristic easy going at Epsom - plus additional watering, presumably to help New Approach in the Derby, would have been the main reason for the rubbish Oaks' result.


More rules and guidelines

Milers Rule
a		A later start to the competition from 2008 means there is trials' form and the Guineas' results to go on - make full use of it.

b		Be cautious about including horses which had been quoted in the ante-post betting for the Guineas in April but were pulled out.

c		Give careful consideration before including horses that ran in the Guineas and either finished down the field or flattered briefly possibly only to deceive.

d		If you strongly fancy more than two of your milers to end up as high scorers, consider putting three in some lines. Do that by putting the third ones in some of the blank spaces permed into your lines from other sections i.e. as a wildcard selection. Wildcards are explained in a separate rule lower down. Keep in mind a miler might later step up in distance to 10f, or more, and gather points that way.
		Top of list

Mile and a Quarter Rule
a		Only four spaces and one selection are made available for mile and a quarter horses. This may seem unrepresentative as there are a high number of bonus races (five) over this sort of distance in the competition. Our past experience was that few horses ever stood out over this hybrid trip and those that did would not necessarily yield more than one high scorer in the group in any one season. Furthermore, there was always the likelihood that some of the big points available over this distance would be pinched either by milers stepping up in trip (e.g. horses from section 1) or by middle distance horses dropping back in trip (e.g. horses from sections 3, 4 & 5).

b		Notwithstanding (a) above, it is still possible to put a couple of mile and a quarter horses from the base four in some lines if so desired. That would be done by putting the second ones in some of the blank spaces permed into your lines from other sections i.e. as a wildcard selection.
		Top of list

Oaks and Derby Rule
a		These two races are important because they are the first of the competition's 50-point bonus races. All the form and betting is available so expect a huge number of entrants to kick off with both winners if the races are won by horses in the competition. You must, therefore, try hard, within reason, to be one of them by endeavouring to have the winner of both races in a good proportion of your lines - otherwise you will be toiling behind from the very start. If the actual winners of the races prove to be popular in the betting, and you do not have them in any of your lines, you would be in deep trouble from the off. Our system attempts to safeguard against that eventuality by concentrating your attention on only the first four in the betting of both races. On the other hand, if one or both races are won by outsiders, missing them might not matter in the long run because people who have that kind of horse in their lines will usually have lines that lack quality in depth, so will eventually be overtaken by the smarter entries. If either race is won by a horse not in the competition that should be even less harmful in the long run than if the race were won by an outsider which is in the competition.

b		To determine the first four in the ante-post betting, refer to the latest possible odds comparison tables at oddschecker.com. Do not blindly trust the order given in their tables - if horses look to be closely tied, work out the fractions to confirm their present position precisely. When working out the fractions, refer only to bookmakers' odds - ignore any betting exchange odds if included in the tables.

c		If a horse in the first four in the betting for the Oaks or Derby is not in the competition's list of 500 horses, leave a blank line in the shortlist where that horse would have been - do not bring in the fifth in the betting. Any such blank space acts like a wildcard opportunity and there are two ways of using it (i) if you believe the springer WILL NOT win the Derby or Oaks, the blank space should be used to cover the remaining three horses more tightly in your lines or (ii) if you believe the springer WILL win the Derby or Oaks, the blank space should be used as a full wildcard to bring in any horse(s) from any other section(s). The effect of this, if the blank were in the Oaks section, is that some lines of ten might not have an Oaks runner or, if the blank were in the Derby section, some lines of ten might not have the normal two Derby runners but only one (plus a horse from another section). If, in a particular year, there were a blank space in both the Oaks and the Derby sections, or two blank spaces in one of the sections, this rule (c) is to be applied pro-rata for the multiple blank space situation.

d		The reason for normally doing two selections for the Derby in every line is not to try to get the 12 points for second place. It is to double the chance of collecting points in later key races normally targeted by Derby types.

e		Be aware that our formula normally means three horses in every line (nearly a third) are concentrated around just these two races. If the shortlist were to fail to provide the winner of at least one race and, if all the horses in sections 3 & 4 were to fail to win any later big races, that would no doubt kill off all of your lines. If that happened there would be nothing for it but to write off this season's attempt and try again the following season when the form is unlikely to turn out that bad again.
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Middle Distance Rule
a		Give careful consideration before including any 3yo's in this section (sctn 5) if they had been quoted in the ante-post betting for the Oaks and Derby in May but were pulled out before the competition's closing date for entries.

b		Do not use section 5 (or 6) as a dump for the odd ante-post outsider from the Derby or Oaks because you think there's an off chance they might do something later on. If they are not good enough to go in section 3 or 4 in the first place they are possibly not good enough to go in section 5 or 6 either.

c		Put three middle distance horses from section 5, instead of the basic two, in some of your lines. Do that by putting the third ones in some of the blank spaces permed into your lines from other sections i.e. as wildcard selections. Bear in mind the odd middle distance horse might unexpectedly step down in distance to around 10f and gather points that way.
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Wildcard Rule for Blank Spaces
a		Blank spaces in the shortlist are an important feature of the system. A blank space arises if, in your final shortlist, there are less than 36 named horses. If, for instance, you had only 32 named horses, that would leave four blank spaces somewhere in your shortlist. Having fewer than 36 horses means, on the plus side, the base horses will be easier to perm more tightly but, on the minus side, there would be fewer actual runners during the course of the season - so there is a trade-off. So, whilst blank spaces are basically a good thing to have, there should never be too many of them. An optimum number, in our experience, to ensure enough actual runners, with some hope of perming them, is 32 named horses - thus leaving four blank spaces to be filled by flexible wildcards from those 32.

b		When there is a blank space within any section, it must still be regarded as an actual selection, albeit an unnamed selection initially, within that section. A blank space must not be ignored or bypassed. It should be weighted into your lines in proportion with its position in a subgroup i.e. if horse 1 in a block of four is left blank, it should go in, say, twice as many lines than if horse 4 were left blank.

c		A vacancy in a line can be filled by any horse that is not already used in that particular line. That can be any horse from the same section (meaning horses in the base group are then being covered more strongly), or from any other section in column 3 (then meaning horses from other sections are being covered more strongly).

d		You will probably find each instance of a blank space will be permed into more than one of your lines. When it is, it does not necessarily have to be filled with the same horse each time in each of those lines, you can vary the horses that fill vacancies as much as you like. This flexibility is why a blank space effectively works just like a wildcard and, as such, can be a very powerful tool for fine-tuning, strengthening and varying individual lines as a final operation before submission.

e		Blank spaces are not intended as an opportunity to bring in additional horses or personal fancies from outside of the ones named in your/our shortlist. Any temptation to do so should be resisted as that could seriously dilute, not improve your chances of winning.
		Top of list

Duplicated horses
a		If you are submitting your entries by post, it is surprisingly easy to put a horse's ID number in the same line twice. The more lines you do, the bigger the danger. This is because the postal entry forms are a blind array of 4-digit numbers, not meaningful names. So, be as careful as you can to avoid duplicating numbers in any one list of ten horses because it would be very embarrassing to have a list displayed in the paper in the top ten knowing everybody else will be laughing at seeing a horse in it twice as its score can only be counted once. It has happened in the past!

	Last amended 20.10.08 (dmy)

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