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     System for the Tote Ten To Follow : Jumps 2008-9     
   Intro, Oct 2008:  Welcome to the 11th time our free system for the Totesport Racing Post Ten To Follow competition has appeared in full online.

Our objective is to give anyone picking their own lines of ten purely from our system's shortlist of 36 horses a sporting chance of being the next big winner.  That could certainly have been the case in nine...		      of the ten past postings, when the system gained enough points to have finished, since 2001, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 0, 1st, 4th, 11th & a £10K prize, 1st, 1st & a £10K prize and 1st & 3 x £10K prizes, potentially netting over £2.1m in prize-money.  The 2008-9 Jumps comp. begins on Friday, 14th Nov 2008, and ends on Grand National day, 4th April 2009.   
 
   Final 08-09 shortlist posted here 13.11.08 at 8.20pm      View FINAL performance as at 14.4.09   
   Review of 2008-9 - Many hundreds of lines from the shortlist could have finished somewhere on the leader board.  Twelve possible lines finished with a money-earning score of 744 or more.  No followers managed to get one of those lines for real, unfortunately, including ourselves.  Of those twelve lines, the best one totalled 765 points, which was equal to joint 3rd place, worth £30,162.  More from 14.4.09.

December 2008 - The shortlist had to wait until the end of December before it had any lines capable of leading the competition.  The three said lines would have stayed first for the next six weeks.

The shortlist provided a very near miss for the £10K December prize when 69 different possible lines were all worth 2nd place.  More on Dec prize.

March 2009 - Going into Cheltenham, there were lines from the shortlist capable of occupying every place in the top twenty except for the first two.  But, after Day 1, the best had slipped to 28th.  However, a glut of points on Day 3 saw a line capable of regaining 3rd place where, basically, it then stayed till the end.

The shortlist provided a near miss for the £25K Cheltenham prize when 11 different lines could have included 9 scoring horses.  More on Chelt prize.  It was the same unlucky near miss for the £10K March prize.  More on March prize.

April 2009 - The potential winnings, by using our system, over the eleven seasons it has appeared on here in full, including the possibility of finishing joint 3rd this year, are well in excess of £2,133,000.

Readers' tips - Something we now like to do is give a full name-check to any reader who puts up a horse for consideration which scores 25 points...  cont. in RH col.
   

Continued from LH col
or more (even if we failed to use it).  This is never an easy task for readers because we always have all the more obvious horses well sewn up in our list from the start.  Only two e-mailers managed to contribute actual scorers this season.  Jonathan Sutcliffe from Cheltenham tipped the impressive pair Catch Me +65 and Punjabi +97.  He was the top man the previous year too.  While Alan C from Hampton Hill improved on his previous year's tips by giving Tartak +48 and Gwanako +15.  Thanks to everybody who took the trouble to write in irrespective of whether we used the suggestions in the final shortlist.

At least six followers of this page ended the season with their names on the final leader-board.  The best this year was a top-thirty place for team James Collister & Dan Richardson.  To appreciate what a tremendous achievement that was, it is worth noting that only two lines by Thebuzzword finished above James and Dan's despite the former's huge entry (not based on our system) of circa 1000 lines.  Next best was a top-seventy place for, fittingly, Jonathan Sutcliffe's team.  Again, not all that far off an elusive pickup.  Finishing anywhere on the final leader-board is, of course, a major accomplishment in itself in this tough competition.  If you don't believe us, you only have to look again at Thebuzzword who, after an unprecedented domination of the leader-board all season, still failed to secure an actual bonus or overall pickup.

It is time now for us to take a summer break.  We will not be doing anything for the Flat 2009.  But we expect to be back again next October for the build-up to the 2009-10 Jumps' competition.  So hope to hear from you all again then.

   
 
   Our system - The competition's master list of 500 horses is reduced by our team down to just 36 horses max.  This shortlist is then divided into five smaller subgroups to aid perming and ensure...     
well-structured lines.  The system's rules are integral in the table below or are linked to in the table.  Precise perming instructions are denoted by brown text in column 3 of the table.
  
 
   Key - a key to abbreviations appears after the shortlist.      Convert Irish-race euros to £s hence points   
  Col 2 Col 3 Col 4

Sel
Nos
Categories
(Type of Jumper)		 SHORTLIST (this col) = 32 named horses
Brown text = perming instructions.
Blue = best 10 sels, subs included.
[ / ] = results before/after 2nd week in Jan.
February subs (at bottom of this col).

Other horses considered for col 3 but not used
  Col 2 rule Col 3 rule Col 4 rule

1,
2,
2m Hrdlrs - Chmpn Hdl types, max 4, 4-6yo preferred age.

All ages, incl subs in Feb, shown as at start of comp in Nov.		 Perming - When entering the TTF in November, for your first line of ten, start by taking any two from the four below, then proceed down to note (2)...

     No. Form   Name AgeSex Trainer [Res]
1   1050  121-   Binocular 4g Hendrsn [25f 25f 31/12 off till Chel / c3f]
2   1106  11-1   Crack Away Jack 4g Lavelle [2jf 0 21/12 off till Chel / c4]
3   1224  1-23   Katchit 5g King [4 22/12 off till Chel / c0 a0]
4   1415  110-   Sizing Europe 6g Ir [3/08 injd back, 2, 28/12 injd ft 0f / 22/1 setback, 25/1 poss out, 9/3 misses Chelt]
Osana 6g Pipe
Snap Tie 6g Hobbs

3,
4,
2m Chsrs - Qn Mother Chase types, max 4, 5-8yo preferred.		 (2) ...take any 2 from the 8 below (which are numbered in suggested weighting order), then continue to note (3)...

1   1284  112-   Master Minded 5g Nicholls [25f / 25f c50f]
2   1459  11-1   Tidal Bay 7g Hwrd Jhnsn [2, 2f / 3, 25/2 cut leg , trnr says may miss Chelt c4 a2]
3       Wildcard 1
7   1483  21-4   Voy Por Ustedes 7g King [3 / 25f c12f a25f]
Takeroc 5g Nicholls

Wildcard rule
  2m Nov Chsrs - Arkle types, max 2, 5-8yo preferred.
5   1442  24-1   Tatenen 4g Nicholls [15f 2f / cFf a2f]
8   1153  04-1   Free World 4g Nicholls [2f / 3f 3f 2 c-]
Ashkazar 4g Pipe
I'msingingtheblues 6g Nicholls
  3m Nov Chsrs - RSA types, max 2, 5-9yo preferred.
4   1022  10/1   Aran Concerto 7g Ir [Len: 4/01 rcvrng frm setbck / 21/01 out]
6   1064  0-11   Breedsbreeze 6g Nicholls [25f / 23/1 trnr says may skip Chelt, Ff c-]
Cooldine 6g Ir
Fiveforthree 6g Ir

5,
2½m Hcp Chsrs - Paddy Power types, max 4, 5-9yo preferred.		 (3) ...take any 1 from the 4 below, then continue down to note (4)...

1   1412  314-   Silverburn 7g Nicholls [0f 4f / P cP]
2   1202  114-   Imperial Commander 7g T-Davies [been off 11 mnths, 57 0 / c57]
3   1037  121-   Barbers Shop 6g Hendrsn [12 15f / 23/1 may be off till Chelt c0]
4   1045  40-3   Bible Lord 7g Turnell [00 / cF aF]
PPGC Rule

6,
7,
8,
3m Chsrs - King George VI types, max 4, 5-10yo preferred.		 (4) ...take any 3 from the 12 below (numbered in suggested weighting order), then continue to note (5)...

1   1225  22-1   Kauto Star 8g Nicholls [Uf 50f, 31/12 poss off till Chel / c50f]
4       Wildcard 2 (linked with Voy Por)
7   1350  211-   Our Vic 10g Pipe [P / 13/1 eas, trnr says misses Chelt, cP a4]
9   1136  03-2   Exotic Dancer (as w/card 4) 8g, O'Neill [3 29 / c3 a2 & dead]
3m+ Chasers Rule

Linked w/c Rule
 
3¼m Chsrs - Chelt Gold Cup types, max 4, 5-10yo preferred.
2   1118  111-   Denman 8g Nicholls [1/11 had heart prob, poss rtrn early Feb / 2f c12 aFf]
5       Wildcard 3 (linked with Kauto Star)
8   1314  131-   Neptune Collonges 7g Nicholls [Sf / 50f c4 17/3 injd leg, off 12 mths]
10   1485  3/11   War Of Attrition 9g Ir [Tel: 3jf 2, 3/1 off till Chelt, 9/3 off till Aint c- a-]
Linked w/c Rule


3¼m Hcp Chsrs - Hennessy GC types, max 4, 5-10yo preferred.
3   1046  301-     Big Buck's 5g Nicholls [u 19 / 29 c54 a25f]
6   1083  P3-1     Character Building 8g Quin [nr 4f 3 / 30 c47]
11   1008  11-2     Air Force One 6g Mann [Len: 12 0, 30/12 injd back, poss out / c0 a0]
12   1394  20-1     Roll Along 8g Llewellyn [nr 3 / P c0]
Alberta's Run 7g O'Neill

9,
10.
Miscellaneous types, max 8, preferred ages
NH 4-6yo,
SH 5-7yo,
NC 5-8yo,
SC 6-11yo.		 (5) ...take any 2 from the 8 below to complete the first line of ten, then continue down to note (6)...

1   1204  113-   Inglis Drever 9g SH Hwrd J [Pf, 29/11 lm prob out / 21/1 rtrd] 
2   1213  11-1   Jered 6g Ir 2mH [Tel: 3f / c0 a0]
3   1326  32-1   Noland 7g 2½mC Nicholls [25jf / 6/2 out at least 12 mths, injd leg]
4   1467  11-1   Tranquil Sea 6g 3mNC Ir [AC: 0f, 2/12 eas / 0 c0]
5   1054  11-1   Blazing Bailey 6g SH King [4 / 0 c0] 
6       Wildcard 4 w/c Rule
7   1078  0-41   Catch Me 6g 2½mH Ir [JS: 25f 15f / 25f c- a0]
8   1233  20-1   Kicks For Free 7g 3mNC Nicholls [2f 2f / 3f slt bleed, c-]

30.11.08 - Jonathan Sutcliffe was the first contributor to give a 25-points winner with Catch Me.

6.12.08 - It's JS again, with Punjabi - another 25-points beauty.  This one was left in col 4, as we already had five 2m hurdlers, so we can't actually count it.

20.12.08 - Alan C is off the mark with Gwanako 15 pts (another one left in col 4).

28.12.08 - JS's Catch Me is now up to 40 points.

7.2.09 - Alan C is in there again with another of his tips, Tartak 19 pts (another we left in col 4).

15.2.09 - JS's tip Catch Me is now up to 65 points.

10.3.09 - JS's tip Punjabi is now up to 97 points.

2.4.09 - Alan C's Tartak, in col 4 right, rises to 48.		 Misc Rule

Unused Misc hrdlrs (in race-type order)

113- Zaarito 6g 2mNH ex-bmpr Ir [Len: 2f / 12f 0jf c-],
231- Won In The Dark 4g 2mH Ir sm trnr [LDP MA MP: 42 / c0]
111- Punjabi 5g 2mH Hndrsn [JS: 25f Ff / 3 c72],
112- Whiteoak 5m 2½mH McCain [JM: / 2 c0 a0],
2114 Kasbah Bliss 6g SH Fr [poss away till new year / 20 c4],
411- Elusive Dream 7g SH Nicholls [JS: 3F / ],
30-4 Kazal 7g SH Ir [LDP: 0 / 0 9/2 out, 2nd wind op]
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Unused Misc chsrs (in race-type order)

0-00 Pigeon Island 5g 2mNC T-Davies [MP: 0 / c-],
21-1 Tartak 5g George 2½mNC [AC: 2 / 2f 19 c0 a29],
321- Gwanako 5g 2½mhC Nicholls [AC: R 15 / 2 c0 aF],
011- An Accordian 7g Pipe SC [AC: / P c-]
(6) ...on completing your first line of ten, return to top of list and pick another line of ten, choosing differing numbers.  Repeat this until you have completed the number of lines you intend to enter.  We recommend, in your first four lines, that you include all 36 selections (including all blank sels.), so you have covered every horse and every blank at least once in your overall entry.  In each of those first four lines, mix stronger horses and blanks with more speculative horses and, finally, use the blanks as wildcards to fine-tune the lines.  Then, in your subsequent eight or so lines, start to whittle your lesser fancies out so as to pull more of your stronger fancies and pro-rata blanks together.  We suggest about twelve lines altogether - that's £144, which is about £6.64 a week, for a whole season's enjoyment without breaking the bank if things turn out bad this year for either our shortlist or people's choices of tens from it.
Read more on perming      Back to top of table
11,
12		 Bonus Horses

8 sels rqd in Feb from which to choose various pairs

All ages, incl bonus horses, shown as at start of comp in Nov.

Bonus Horse Rule

GN Rule
    No. Form   Name AgeSex Trnr (Target)
1   1100    / 1   Cooldine 6g Mullins (RSA) [c50f]
2   1223    / 1   Kasbah Bliss 6g Fr (WH) [c4f]
3   1073    / 2   Calgary Bay 5g Knight (Arkle) [c0 a4]
4   1080    / 1   Celestial Halo 4g Nicholls (CH) [c12 a0]
5   1489  1/   What A Friend 5g Nicholls (RSA) [no prep-run, LS: c0]
6   1380    / 2   Punchestowns 5g Hndrsn (WH) [c12]
7   1105    / U   Cousin Vinny 5g Mullins (SNH) [c0f]
8   1160  1/   Garde Champetre 9g Bolger (CC hC) [no prep-run, c29]
9   1275    / 1   Madison du Berlais* 7g Pipe (GC) [c0 a36]
Come the end of February, for any promising lines you have for the overall prize or the Chelt £25K/March £10K consolation prizes, pick pairs of bonus horses to add to each such line from any of the original 32 names from col 3 above which are still viable and not already used in the line in question, and/or from the few new names just above.  Vary the horses you add to your lines according to the present make-up and strengths of each individual line.  In practice there is nothing to stop you bringing in different horses as subs if you so prefer, but the performance of the system itself is tied to just the specific horses above.		 Others considered...

/ 1 Carruthers 5 Bradstock sm trnr (RSA)
/ 2 Possol 5 Daly (WH hC) [JS: c0]
 
A slash followed by a digit (eg / 2) indicates horse had benefit of a Chelt prep-race (finishing 2nd).

* Sub 9, Madison, left, was then top TTF scorer with 115 points, put in as a 'damage limitation' sub to protect some of the system's then top lines.  Madi flopped in the Gold Cup, as expected, only to surprise at Aintree.  It thus featured in four of the system's twelve lines capable of winning a prize.  Only two competition winners had Madi for real (the winner and the fifth placed).
   Key to abbreviations possibly used in the above table:-

/  = a forward slash is used to separate a horse's results in the competition before/after the Thursday/Friday of the 2nd week in January, the same as in previous seasons (when it used to mark the old January deadline for making substitutions).  From 2009, the / will serve solely to show which listed horses go into Cheltenham with/without the benefit of a prep-run in the two months prior to the Festival.

[CR: 04f 25jf / F c- a3] = an example of a horse's results in the competition showing: the horse was submitted by a reader (with initials CR:); on its first run the horse was unplaced (0); on its second run it finished fourth (4) when also favourite for the race (f); on its third run the horse scored 25 points (25 in bold) when a joint favourite for the race (jf); then came the 2nd week in January (/); on its fourth run the horse fell (F) and was not the favourite (i.e. not Ff); the horse failed to run at Cheltenham (c-); at Aintree it finished 3rd and was not the favourite (a3).

7, 8 etc. = a horse's age denoted in red, whether an original horse or a later February addition, was outside of the preferred age range (in November) specified in column 2 (also see below under 'red' in this para)    a in a horse's results = a result at Aintree in April    c (small c) in a horse's results = a result at Cheltenham in March    c- in a horse's results = horse failed to run at Cheltenham in March    C (large C) = Chaser    CH = Champion Hurdle    col = column    d = dead    eas = on easy list    f = favourite    F = Fell over, throwing rider off    Fr = French trainer    GC = Gold Cup    H = Hurdler   inj = injury or injured    hc or hcp = handicap    Ir = Irish Trainer    jf = joint favourite    K = knuckled on landing causing rider to fall off    m = mare    NC = Novice Chaser    NH = Novice Hurdler    nr = non-runner in either of targeted first two bonus races     out = reportedly out for rest of season or, at least, remainder of competition    P = Pulled up    pd = put down    poss = possible or possibility    PP = Paddy Power Gold Cup    [Res] = results box    red = all remarks in red are a definite negative for the competition, though not always a bar to inclusion in our shortlist    S = skidded on landing causing rider to fall off    SC = Staying Chaser    Sel = selection    SH = Staying Hurdler    sm trnr = small trainer    U  = unseated rider after a bad jump    yo = years old as at November of current season (ages are not changed for Jan 1st birthdays)		   

   Best possible rule-compliant lines from the system's shortlist (col 3 above) are as follows...   
           
   Type        Horse   Pts   
  2m hurdlers (2 sels per line) •  Binocular (Henderson)   50  
    Crack Away Jack (or Katchit or Sizing Eur.)   (0)  
  QM, Arkle or RSA Chase
types (2 sels per line)		 •  Master Minded (Nicholls)   100  
  •  Voy Por Ustedes (King)   62  
  Paddy Power sel •  Imperial Commander (T-Davies)    114  
  3m+ chasers (3 sels per
line)		 •  Kauto Star (Nicholls)   100  
  •  Big Buck's (Nicholls)   127  
  •  Neptune Collonge (Nicholls)   50
  Misc (NH, NC, SH, SC or
W/card)  (2 sels per line)		 •  Wildcard 4 - if Character Building
Alternative scorers Exotic Dancer 29 or Barber's Shop 27 were both good for low top-ten places.  Lesser scorers like Noland 25 & Breedsbreeze 25 were good for 11th place, not top ten.  Or, instead of w/c 4 here, the sel could have been bonus horse 2 (three rows down) hence good for a top ten place.  		  47  
  •  Catch Me (Ir)   65  
  Bonus Horse 1* •  Cooldine* (Ir)   50  
  Bonus Horse 2*   Madison du Berlais 36 or Garde Champetre 29 were both good for a middle-to-low top-ten place.  Lesser scoring subs Celestial Hero 12 & Punchestowns 12 were good for a top-twenty place but not top ten.   (36)  
      Best 10 from 12 (worth jt 3rd place)   = 765  
      Real leader's score   = 776  
      View Tote's final leaderboard (if still online)  

Comments in running (latest first) Back to top
14.4.09 - 765 pts - The shortlist ended the season, on 4.4.09, with twelve different lines which could have won an overall prize.  The best total was 765 (worth joint 3rd place), next was one on 754 plus three on 751 (each worth 7th place), then two on 747 (worth clear 9th place), one on 745 (worth joint 9th place), or four on 744 (each worth a share of tenth place).  Below that, there was another couple on 743 (worth 11th place), then an uncountable multitude of other possible lines all worth a top-twenty place (i.e. with more than 709 points).  Back to Review.
3.4.09 - 765 pts - A win on Aintree Day 2 by Voy Por Ustedes meant the shortlist's best-possible line was back up to being worth 3rd place, just 11 points behind the real leader's 776.
Depending entirely on what happens in the final three key races on Grand National day tomorrow, the said line could actually steal 1st place (if Catch Me wins), or merely stay joint third (if everything loses), or sink down to 9th (if Tatenen wins), or end up completely out of the money as a top-twenty also-ran (if Tatenen and Jered win).  One could not ask for a finish to be closer or more exciting than that.  [In the event, the named horses all lost, so it was a case of no change at the top for the first seven people on the leaderboard.]
2.4.09 - 740 pts - Wins on Aintree Day 1 for Big Buck's and sub Madison du Berlais, but the shortlist's best-possible line slipped from being worth 3rd place down to 4th, 18 points behind the real leader's 758.
1.4.09 - Aintree Preview - The system went into Aintree with 16 of its 41 horses (includes the 9 sub choices) expected to run in 7 different races, which represented a good performance by the shortlist.
1.4.09 - March £10K Prize - 361 points in March - The top six lines on the official leader-board after Cheltenham stayed unchanged to the end of March.  That meant our shortlist had 11 possible lines stuck on 361 i.e. the same near-miss 4th-place score as in the Festival's summary table shown at 13.3.09 below.  Back to Review.
16.3.09 - 715 pts - We have heard from James Collister & Dan Richardson again (see below of 19.2.09) whose "well balanced" lines briefly got them as high as an exalted 19th place overall during Cheltenham.
We've also heard from Lloyd Speid again (see below of 26.1.09) who wrote "590 is my best ever by a long way and gives me the incentive to have a proper crack next time".
14.3.09 - 715 pts - Post-Cheltenham summary - 23 of the original 32 horses ran at Cheltenham in 9 different races, producing 7 scorers.  In addition, all 9 subs ran, in 5 different races, producing 4 more scorers, making 11 scorers altogether.  The shortlist went into Cheltenham with three possible lines on 424, worth third place, 25 points behind the then real leader, and emerged with one line capable of 715, worth the same 3rd place (joint), 18 points behind the real leader's 733, plus four other lines worth 6, 7, 8 & 9th places.
The ten lists leading for real, after Cheltenham, were different from the ten going into Cheltenham, which were different again from those which were leading after Xmas/ New Year, which is normal.  Biggest casualty in the shakeout has been the expensive tight-perm gambles of Thebuzzword and pal Mr P.  Thebuzzword is down to one remaining line (in 6th place) despite being huge on Cheltenham scorers Punjabi and Imperial Dancer.  He has still got the horses, like Tatenen and Jered, to make a significant comeback if they can do the business at Aintree.  [But they didn't.]
13.3.09 - Cheltenham £25K Prize - 361 points at the 2009 Festival - Last year a couple of our followers shared the Cheltenham prize with just six scoring horses (five 50-pointers and one 12-point second), giving a total of 'only' 292 points.  This year the shortlist smashed that performance, supplying nine scorers which could be lined up (five 50-pointers, two 12-pointers, plus two 25-pointers) giving a huge total of 361 over the four days.  Unbelievably, though, that score was only worth 4th place.  Somehow, two people (just 2 out of 12,000) got all seven 50-pointers (unreal, first time ever) plus one 12-point second, to share the £25K between them.  Ironically, they succeeded with only eight scorers, compared with our nine.  There were eleven ways in the shortlist of getting a line of 361.  Thankfully, we didn't get one of those fantastic fantasy lines up for real, only to finish 4th, or we'd be reaching for a suicide pill.  One person who must be feeling really gutted is the 3rd-placed man (six 50-pointers plus three 12-pointers, the only person to match our own tally of nine scorers, but for real in his case).  For him to lose after such a superb effort like that must be dreadful.  Mind you, the same guy has jumped up to 2nd overall on the main leader-board, from nowhere, so he may not go home entirely empty handed.  [In fact, he stayed 2nd, picking up £63½K, so justice was done.]  Back to Review.      Chelt 2009, best 9 from 12s...
   Binocular 0
   Crack Away Jack 0
 •  Master Minded 50
 •  Voy Por Ustedes 12
 •  Imperial Dancer 57
 •  Kauto Star 50
 •  Big Buck's 54
 •  Character Building 47
   Inglis Drever 0
 •  Wildcard 4 (if Denman) 12
 •  Cooldine* (if sub) 50
 •  Garde Champetre* (if sub) 29
  System's Chelt total (4th)  = 361
  Real winner's total  = 402
12.3.09 Day 3 - 665 pts - There are so many random factors in horse racing and today was the day this Chaos Theory came to our rescue with a big bang.  Imperial Commander unexpectedly supplied a second helping of 57 points to bring its total to 114.  Favourite for the same race, Voy Por Ustedes, made mistakes but still salvaged a countable 12 points in defeat.  Chaser Big Buck's defied all known logic yet again to bag another 54 points, bringing its total to 102, all from hurdles.  While Character Building (+47) became, at 16/1, and +22 Tote points, probably the biggest outsider to have succeeded for us since we first started posting our shortlists in 2001.  A current score of 665 would represent a leap back up to 3rd place on the leader-board behind the new real leader's score of 683.  Two more favourites from the shortlist were turned over but, for once, even this worked in the list's favour by letting horses win which were not then too prevalent in the real leaders' lists.
Character Building was the 15th separate winner from the original 32, so that is almost a 50% strike rate.  And, after these bullish Day 3 results, we could see at least five followers with their names on the official leader-board.  The highest of these being Sam who did just one line (see previous comment below of 14.1.09).  Maybe that's what we need when compiling our own entries, some female intuition onboard.  We definitely need something!
11.3.09 Day 2 - 528 pts - No complaints with today's main possibles, our No. 1 substitute Cooldine obliged (+50) as did the TTF's second most popular horse Master Minded (+50).  Both with a good prep-run behind them and both also justifying favouritism.  But, by being popular choices, the shortlist's best possible lines would have crept up only 3 places, to be worth 25th place, this being an impossible 51 pts behind the real leader's 579, though only 19 pts off regaining a top ten place.
10.3.09 Day 1 - 453 pts - Three SP favourites ran for our shortlist on Day 1, all thrashed, surprise surprise.  This knocked the system's best-possible lines out from 3rd place to 28th, miles behind returning leader Thebuzzword on 506.  Having seen many of the lists of the people who were higher than our 453, and knowing what they would mainly have subbed in, we were resigned to there being no way back in to the top twenty this year nor, after only day one, of challenging for the Cheltenham £25K prize.  Contributor JS's Punjabi became the biggest-priced winner (22/1) to have ever appeared on our pages, and at least two followers did have it, even though we'd unfortunately left it out in column 4.  For the record, the reason we did not formally promote Punjabi from col 4 to col 3 was because we already had five 2m hurdlers in col 3 and truly thought we were cast-iron in that department.  In theory, we were probably right because our five all proved to be more popular than Punjabi in the TTF.  What we could never have guessed was our five would all be sent to Cheltenham without a prep-run to put them in shape, unlike the winner and the second.  Some trainers are on the ball, others are surprisingly clueless over this issue.  Camouflage comments like "best when fresh" or "will be going there fresh" are usually a death knell.
8.3.09 (Sunday) - Cheltenham Preview - Of the original list of 32 horses last November, 24 are probable runners at the Festival, in 9 different races, with at least one possible runner in only five of the seven 50-point races, though including the expected favourite in each of those five races.  When counting the subs, however, there is at least one possible runner in all seven bonus races, and that's what we need.
1.3.09 - 424 pts - The real leader's total of 449, going into Cheltenham, is the lowest since substitutions were first allowed, due only partly to the later implementation date for substitutes this year.  Our shortlist goes into Cheltenham with many possible lines which could be somewhere on the leaderboard, including all but the first two of the top twenty places.  So we are hoping, like last year, that this will serve as a great springboard for a cracking Cheltenham and, who knows, maybe launch one of our followers into the money again.
27.2.09 - We've heard from Jonathan Sutcliffe - his team has two lines now on the online leaderboard.  Ironically, if he'd put his own super tip Catch Me in those lines he'd be in 4th place and in a very strong position because the actual first four all had to spend one of their subs bringing in Voy Por Ustedes, which Jonathan already had in both his lines.  It's just not fair!
22.2.09 - 424 pts - This weekend, two runners, Free World and Kicks For Free, both favourites, one as hot as 1/4, and each notching up, by extraordinary coincidence, its third BF tag in a row.  That makes 21 painful BFs to date for our list - and there's the Cheltenham graveyard still to come!
19.2.09 - We've had emails from a few more people who are enjoying seeing their names on the leaderboard.  There's a team entry by James Collister & Dan Richardson who said "The system certainly has made us more competitive by making our lines well balanced."  Also Paul Harrison from Hampton who said "Thanks for an excellent website."  Our pleasure - thanks for the kind words one and all and good luck for the remainder.
16.2.09 - 424 pts - Catch Me, a great tip from contributor Jonathan Sutcliffe, sneaked another 25 points from a quiet Monday meeting in Ireland.  If only points were always that easy to come by.

Catch Me was completing a century of points from three winners in the last three days.  This would have caused the shortlist's best eighteen lines to occupy places 3 to 20 on the leaderboard.  That's a first for the system.  The real leader was 25 ahead on 449.
15.2.09 - 399 pts - Neptune Collonge became the 14th new horse to score for the shortlist, further helping to fill up the blocks with surplus scorers.  It won 50 points but only 25 were countable, causing the shortlist's best three lines to slip from the equivalent of 2nd place down to 6th.
14.2.09 - 374 pts - Breedsbreeze became the 19th losing favourite we have suffered this season.  The fall will no doubt mean no more TTF points coming from that one this season.  Voy Por Ustedes became the 13th new horse to score for the shortlist, thus doing its bit to fill up the blocks with multiple scorers.
7.2.09 - 374 pts - Of all horses, odds-on Denman became the ignominious 18th losing favourite from our list this season.  This blow also saw the list's best three lines, which had enjoyed a theoretical 6-week stint in 1st place, knocked down to the equivalent of 2nd.
26.1.09 - We had a nice email from a Lloyd Speid of Sutton who said "I have actually made it to the leader board for the first time in ten years.  This is a testament to the effectiveness of your site as I only came across it a couple of years ago.  Before that I never understood how important it was to have well structured lines."
Thanks for that Lloyd, much appreciated.
24.1.09 - 374 pts - There are three possible lines on 374, equivalent to 1st place, thanks to a bizarre follow-up hurdles-win by staying chaser Big Buck's.
23.1.09 - We had a nice email from a Garrie Seal of Gwent who was enjoying having his name in the paper and, at the time, was just a 50-point winner off being in the top 10.
17.1.09 - 353 pts - Points don't come any easier than the 25 today from a masterful Master Minded, thus maintaining the theoretical possibility of three lines in 1st place all on 353.  At the other extreme, the odds-on Free World became another favourite from our list (the 17th) to lose.
14.1.09 - We had a nice email from a Sam Symonds from Evesham.  Her single line, for a friends-and-family syndicate, has been on the leaderboard almost from the beginning, was in the top 20 on Boxing Day, is still up in the top 40, and has put the other syndicate members' lines to shame!  Sam says it may now be time for a "wheel to fall off".  But maybe not - all she needs is for her horses to keep winning.
2.1.09 - 328 pts - A win by Big Buck's on New Year's Day meant 12 different horses had scored, two better than at the same stage the previous season.  Several dozen possible lines from the shortlist were capable of being somewhere in the top ten (i.e. scoring 305 or more).  The best three lines would each be on 328.

Unfortunately, the year also began where the old one left off - with yet another beaten favourite!  Statistically impossible you would think, but we have now suffered more losing favourites this season than losing non-favourites (16 to 15).
1.1.09 - December Prize - 209 points in December 2008
The shortlist enjoyed 8 winners in December, ironically one more than the first four people topping the final leader-board for the December £10K prize.  The eight horses fell absolutely perfectly within the system's five structured blocks (see summary table right) and there were 69 different lines which could each have contained those eight winners - for a total of 209 points.  That score was good enough to beat everybody in the competition except for one person who had 221 points.  Ten of the 69 possible lines on 209 even threatened to reach what would have been a clinching 234 points because they would have contained Sizing Europe in the 2m hurdler section, which was the shortlist's final runner of December 2008.  Sadly though, Sizing was announced slightly lame in a foot the day before the race and, though still taking its chance, even starting favourite, and racing menacingly till two out, it clearly must have felt a twinge as the horse suddenly dropped right out of contention.  But a thrilling end to the month all the same, and as good an effort as one could possibly have asked from the system - especially when bearing in mind the real winner had needed a fluky-ish result earlier in the month (12/1 turn-up Sentry Duty) to better our 209 points.  Back to Review.		 December 2008 scorers...
 •  Binocular 25
 •  Any of 3 x 2m hdlrs 0
 •  Master Minded 25
 •  Breedsbreeeze 25
 •  Barber's Shop 15
 •  Kauto Star 50
 •  Exotic Dancer 29
 •  W/card 3 (any of 23) 0
 •  Noland 25
 •  Catch Me 15
  Dec total (2nd)  = 209
  Real winner's total  = 221
31.12.08 - 328 points - The system ended 2008 with more than nine lines capable of being in the top ten, including three which could have been in 1st place on 328 - which was 6 points higher than the three lines by the real leader (Thebuzzword) on 322.  Altogether, there were literally hundreds of possible lines which could have been somewhere on the full leaderboard.

Our final runner of 2008 was Sizing Europe on 29.12.08.  It became yet another favourite to let us down - raising the full total of losing favourites or joint favourites in our list, at the half way stage, to a reprehensible 15.  Also, in the same race as Sizing Europe, there was terrible bad luck for the three readers who suggested Won In The Dark for our shortlist.  Denied on the run-in of what would, at 20/1, have been the biggest-priced winner ever to appear in any of our tables since the first one back in 2001.

Thebuzzword (Warrington) was a name thoroughly dominating the halfway leaderboard to an extent which has never happened before in the history of the competition.  On the extended leaderboard, online, his lists were placed 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, another eighteen in 9th, followed by many dozens of others in groups further down, plus dozens of others also in big groups from a Mr P of Warrington - whom we take to be his pal.  It was a similar tale on the monthly leaderboard, beginning with about 13 lists for Thebuzzword in joint 8th place followed by dozens of others in bunches lower down for both Thebuzzword and Mr P.  From the make-up of Thebuzzword's perms we estimated he might have done a thousand lines.
Thebuzzword is not a user of our system, not even our 'blank template', unfortunately.  But good luck to the guy.  If his £12K or whatever outlay bags him the £444K prize at the end of the day he will certainly have deserved the reward for the immense amount of hard work and the skill he has obviously put into it, and for having the bottle to risk that kind of money.  People who lead the competition straight after Xmas are very difficult to get past in practice through January and February, so tend to stay right up there or thereabouts all the way through to Cheltenham.  However, the leaders after Xmas have never gone on to actually win the competition.  But, win or lose, we wouldn't mind having Thebuzzword as one of our contributors next year - so let's hope he's got a computer and comes across this note one day.  [No joy.]
28.12.08 - 316 pts (or 328) - Wins by Catch Me and Exotic Dancer meant the three highest possible lines with no wildcard in them would be on 316 points, equivalent to 4th place.  The best three with a wildcard in them would be on 328, equivalent to 1st place, 6 points higher than the real leader on 322.

30 different horses from the list of 32 have now run, and 11 have scored.  The two yet to appear are Aran Concerto and Denman.
27.12.08 - 284 pts - No runners today.  The best possible lines, not counting a wildcard, were pushed down from 2nd to the equivalent of joint 8th place.
26.12.08 - 284 pts - Wins from Binocular and Kauto Star on Boxing Day meant there were possible lines good enough to be in the top-twenty on the leader board for the first time this season.  In fact, several lines were capable of sharing joint 2nd place behind the new real leader now on 297. 
29 different horses from the list of 32 have run and 10 have scored.  There have been 13 beaten favourites to date (including two which were joint favourite).
21.12.08 - 209 pts - This possible score of 209 was equivalent to 36th place on the leader-board, 53 behind the new real leader's score of 262, and 14 points off being in the top-ten.  26 different horses from the list have run, 8 have scored.  The dreadful number of beaten favourites now amounts to eleven (includes two which were joint-favourite).
12.12.08 - 184 pts - This possible score from the shortlist was equivalent to 33rd place on the official leader-board, 25 points behind the real leader. 25 of our 32 horses had run and 8 had scored.
9.12.08 - 184 pts - This possible score was equivalent to 30th place on the leader-board.  The new real leader was on 209.
7.12.08 - 159 pts - This possible score was equivalent to 110th place on the online leader-board.  The new real leader was 39 ahead of that on 198.
5.12.08 - 134 pts - 19 of the 32 horses have run, one of which is now on the easy list (Tranquil Sea).
1.12.08 - 134 pts - This possible score was equivalent to 63rd place on the leader-board - thanks to yesterday's 25 point win by Catch Me (contributed by Jonathan Sutcliffe from Cheltenham).  The new real leader was 60 ahead of that on 194.  18 of the 32 horses have run, 6 have scored, one is now out injured (Inglis Drever).
30.11.08 - 109 pts - After yesterday's Hennessy, there was a possible total from our shortlist of 109 from four of five scoring horses.  This was equivalent to scraping onto the Tote's online leader-board in bottom place.  The new real leader was 55 ahead of that on 164.  This low score of 109, after the first two weeks, represented the worst-ever start for our system - worse even than in the sole blow-out season to date in 2002-3 (when the shortlist failed to trap the winner of either of the first two bonus races).
25.11.08 - 97 pts - The first leader-board appeared today in Tuesday's Racing Post.  The real leader was on 144.  There was a possible total from our shortlist of 97, from three of our four scoring horses, which was 12 points short of being on the first online leader-board.


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