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   System for the Tote Ten To Follow : 2007-8 Jumps   
   Oct 2007:  Welcome to our free system for the Tote Racing Post Ten To Follow competition which is now its 10th season online.

Our objective is to give anyone picking their own lines purely from our system's shortlist of 36 horses a serious chance of being the next big winner.  That could certainly have been the case several times in the past.  In fact, in eight of the nine past seasons...
   covered, the system gained enough points to have finished - in chronological order - 1st, 1st, 2nd, 0, 1st, 4th, 11th (but with a monthly prize), 1st, & 1st (plus a monthly prize), potentially netting over £1,618,000 in prize-money.

The 2007-8 Jumps comp. begins on 16th November 2007 and ends on Grand National day, 5th April 2008.
  
 
   Final shortlist posted here 15.11.07 at 11.55am    View FINAL performance as of 5.4.08   
 
   Review of 2007-8 (posted 13.4.08) - Of the Jumps' competition just ended, multiple horse deaths, injuries and losing favourites will no doubt be the main "what might have been" memory for most players - including ourselves.  Despite that, it was still another very solid performance by the Jumps version of our system and, for some followers, genuinely successful.  There were possible lines capable of leading after the fourth week, were never lower than 9th after that and, emerging from Cheltenham, there were multiple possible leading lines through to the end of the competition.  It ultimately proved to be the system's best-ever season and, one of the easiest too due to the number of higher-ranked horses and substitutes in the shortlist which went on to score big points.

December 2007 - Three weeks into the competition was the first time a line from the shortlist was capable of being on the leaderboard - scraping in at number 90.  One week later and there was a line good enough to be leading.  By the end of December, there were two dozen lines capable of leading.

That points-surge during December led to the shortlist containing twelve lines good enough to have won the £10K December bonus prize.  It was the third time in four years the system had pulled off that feat.  More on Dec prize.

February 2008 - By February, the shortlist had already suffered some bad losing favourites.  But it was to get even worse.  On February 2nd, the shortlist suffered two losers at the cramped odds of 1-4 & 8-13.  That began an unprecedented spate of beaten favourites which spiralled to no less than 17 line-wrecking and prize-costing failures for most users over the next 2 months.

Cheltenham 2008 - The aforementioned run of losing favourites had driven the shortlist's best line from the equivalent of 1st place down to a precarious 9th place by the time Cheltenham came round.  However, the list had dozens of lines at around that position, serving as a potential springboard, and, indeed, by the end of the 4-day Cheltenham Festival, multiple possible lines had shot back up and secured a huge theoretical advantage over the then real leader.

That points-surge during the Festival led to the shortlist containing 30 lines good enough to have won the £10K Cheltenham bonus prize outright.  The system was achieving this feat for the first time ever.  Two of the system's followers were joint sharers in that prize for real.  More on Chelt prize.

March 2008 - By the end of March, the shortlist contained 30 lines good enough to have won the £10K March bonus prize outright.  The system was achieving the March feat for the first time ever.  Two of the system's followers were joint sharers in the March prize for real.  More on Mar prize.

April 2008 - The system emerged from the concluding Aintree meeting with a best-possible line on 871 points - smashing the system's previous best score of 790 points set only in the season previous.  That was also an absolutely astounding 94 points clear of the real winner's total of 777 - the widest possible winning margin ever achieved by the system in any of the ten seasons it has been online.  Moreover, it was not a one-off fluke line, but just one of no less than 134 different possible lines that all finished with more points than the real winner's total.  Enough lines, in fact, to have made a clean sweep of all ten top-ten places on the leaderboard more than a dozen times over - surpassing the previous season's record of 90 lines or nine-times over.

The main prize this season was £455,000 which, with the addition of £30K from a record three possible bonus prize wins, meant the potential winnings, by using our free system, over the ten seasons it
  cont. in RH col.
   cont. from LH col.

has been appearing here online, have been well in excess of £2,103,000.

Obituary - One of our team, Ernie, passed away suddenly from a stroke in 2007.  Luckily, while doing something he liked best - the way we'd all like to go if we were able to choose.  Ernie took with him 50 years of accrued punting knowledge.  His greatest contribution for the system was the hurdler Rooster Booster in 2002-3.  Ironically, it got voted out of our final shortlist that year - only for it to rack up big points every blooming time it ran.  As you can imagine, Ernie never let us forget it, and steadfastly refused to use the system for his own entries after that, despite it going from strength to strength (no doubt having learned something from the costly mistake!).  The sad loss of Ern reminds us of that appropriately poignant quote... "Why do really useful people like Mary Anning have to die when there are so many useless people around."

Tips - The absence of Ern from our 2007-8 team (as per item above) made us more dependent than previously on readers to suggest some horses for us to consider for the list this time.  And we were not let down.  Something new we have therefore decided to do now, and in the future, is to give a full name-check here, in our end-of-season review, to anybody who puts up a horse for consideration, after we first invite suggestions, which scores 25 points or more (even if we fail to use it).  This is never an easy task for readers to do because we always have all the more obvious, self-selecting horses well sewn up from the start.  The top contributors for 2007-8 were: Jonathan Sutcliffe with Tidal Bay 104, and others worth 22, 22 & 12, and substitute Sizing Europe 54 (phew!); Dan Donoghue with Mansony 25; Mark Wood with Jack The Giant 53; while the below-25s came from Alan (24) and Laurence (16 & 16).  Well done one and all and many thanks.

Also deserving credit are those who provided the good negative news that led to the exclusion of some horses, like the popular Detroit City, Aran Concerto and Afsoun.  Those bombers, between them, were in over 13,000 lists!  That kind of negative info can be just as valuable as giving a winner.  We won't mention our sleuths by name, just in case, but, as ever, great intelligence.

Finally - Just seeing one's name in the paper in this competition, however briefly, is a major accomplishment in itself.  But this year, followers defied all the odds by actually winning bonus prizes, and some even finished in the final top twenty.  Indeed, two we know of were just a single, agonising, 10 point or 12 point winner respectively off the ultimate glory of a top-ten pick-up.  They were Noel Santry's syndicate from Cork and Dr Dan Donoghue's two-man team from Canterbury.  Great stuff guys.

And here's another nice story to end with.  The team which finished in 3rd place overall, 'Annie And Her Boys', turns out to be a family syndicate comprising a mum from Leeds and her four grown-up sons.  Two of the brothers, Alan and Stewart Cochrane, are known to base their individual entries on our formula, but like to put their own horses in each category to a degree.  Stewart finished 13th and Alan 84th - so they were both right up there.  However, it was the family's entry which won.  And it did not go unnoticed by us that the winning line was the only line in the final top ten that could have been plucked straight out of our actual shortlist - so well done mum Annie!  And, if Kauto Star had not lost by that nose to Our Vic at the end of the competition, or if Cork All Star had not been a three-time losing favourite back at the start of the competition, they would have scooped the whole lot!  Even so, they still got to share £32,500 between them for 3rd place.  A fantastic win.  And thanks to Alan for letting us recount the tale.
  
 
   The Jumps' system - The competition's master list of horses is reduced by our team from 500 down to just 36 maximum.  This more manageable highly-focused shortlist is then divided into five smaller subgroups to...    simplify and facilitate final selection, perming and well-structured line composition.  The shortlist, complete with integral perming instructions, is in column 3 of the table below.   
 
   Key - a key to abbreviations appears after the shortlist.   
Sctn Categories
(Type of Jumper)
SHORTLIST (this col) - 32 named horses originally, 34 after subs
Brown text = original perming instructions for Nov 2007.
[ / ] = results in comp before / after Jan subs.
Greyed-out text = horse sub'd out in Jan 2008.
Bold red name = horse sub'd in in Jan 2008.
Blue highlight = best ten sels.
Others considered but not used
Rule 5 refers
 
Black names = horses consdrd in Nov.
Red names =  horses consdrd in Jan.
  Col 2 Col 3 Col 4

1.

Sels 1 & 2

2m Hurdlers - Chmpn Hdl types.

4-6yo preferred ages
All ages are shown as at start of comp., including ages of subs.
Perming Instructions (1) - When entering the TTF in November, for your first line of ten, start by taking any two from the four below, then continue down to note (2)...

1) 1445  411- Sublimity 7 Ir [4 / 4]
2) 1220  11-1 Katchit 4 King [32 / 25 57]
3) 1193  20F- Iktitaf 6 Ir [Tel: 16/11 out, 18/12 pd / ]
4) Wildcard 1  Novmbr rule   Jan rule

Jan 2008 Subs (1) - If, in January, you had a promising line, you had to consider keeping or replacing whichever of the above four choices the line contained - with Iktitaf (dead) being the obvious reject if it was in the line in question.  A replacement could be any remaining choice from above, including Wildcard 1, that was not already in the line, or from below...
1442 Straw Bear
6 Gifford [/ 203] and/or...
1172 Harchibald 8 Ir [/SA: 0] and/or...
1425 Sizing Europe 5 Ir [/JS: 54 0 12/3 injd, out]
NB:  You could vary your choice of replacement(s) from the above if you had more than one promising line.  If you made no changes from this group you could still make two choices elsewhere in that particular line.  Scroll down to note 'Jan 2008 Subs (2)' etc to see more possible subs.




160- Detroit City 5 Hobbs [Tel & JS: 24/11 F dead / ]. DC was in col 3 till 14/11, before late negative news - vacated place left vacant i.e. Wildcard 1.








Aitmatov (consdrd as a sub) 6 Ir [/Tel: P20]

2.

Sels 3 & 4

2m Chasers - Qn Mother Chase types.

5-8yo preferred.
(2) ...take any 2 from the 8 below (which are numbered in suggested weighting order), then continue to note (3)...

1) 1484  1u1- Voy Por Ustedes 6 King [22 25 / 2 12 29]
2) 1476  F1-1 Twist Magic 5 Nicholls [29 / 20]
5) 1488  1F3- Well Chief 8 Pipe [2/12 heat, out / ]
8) 1272  21-1 Mansony 8 Ir [DD: 2 25 / 3P3]
 
 
2m Nov Chasers - Arkle Trophy types.
5-8yo preferred.
3) 1324  111/ Noland 6 Nicholls [- / 10 12 3]
6) 1376  144- Predateur 4 Nicholls [CR2: 242 / 4]
Glencove Marina 5 Ir [10 / 20 24/1 out]

3m Nov Chasers - SunAlliance types.

5-9yo preferred.
4) 1462  21-1 Tidal Bay 6 Johnson [JS: 10 12 28/12 trnr says goes for Arkle / 2 57 25]
7) 1419  140- Silverburn 6 Nicholls [23 / 20 0]

Jan 2008 Subs (2) - For each promising line you had, you had to consider keeping or replacing whichever of the above original eight choices the line contained.  A replacement could be any remaining choice from above that was not already in the line, or the one below...
1121 Duc de Regniere
5 Hendrsn [/JS: 2 28/2 setback]
112- Money Trix 7 Richards [ / 15 9/2 setbck], 03-1 Imperial Commander 6 T-Davies [JS: 12 / ]
115- Aran Concerto 6 Ir 14/11 rprtd out, 111- Nicanor 6 Ir 14/11 rcvrng [ / ]

Air Force One (sub?) 5 3mNC [/ 10 2]

3.

Sel 5

2½m Hcap Chsrs - Paddy Power Gold Cup types.
Rule 1 refers

5-9yo preferred.
(3) ...take any 1 from the 4 below, then continue down to note (4)...

1) Wildcard 2 (originally linked with Abragante)
2) 1166  121- Granit Jack 5 Nichols [F, dead / ]
3) 1237  1U-1 L'Antartique 7 Murphy [57 0 / 40]
4) 1096  100- Copsale Lad 10 Hendrsn [00P / 0]

Jan 2008 Subs (3) - If you had any promising lines, they inevitably contained L'Antartique.  You had to decide whether to keep it or, as here, replace it and carry the 57 points forward.  If sub'd out, the replacement could be the remaining choice from above (i.e. Copsale Lad?), or one from below...
1299 Mossbank 7 Ir [/ 12] or
1350 Our Vic 9 Pipe [/ 2 54 32] or
1426 Sky's The Limit 6 NC [/ 04]
If you made a change in this section, you were free to make one other change elsewhere in that particular line.



431-B Private Be 8 Hobbs [MP: 0 / P]
341- Idole First 8 VWilliams [CR: P0 /RW (tipped in Nov as a Jan sub): ]





Jack The Giant 5 Hendrsn [MW: 16 25 12 / Reconsdrd in Jan as poss sub. 31/1 injd, poss out, 25/2 def out]

4.

Sels 6, 7 & 8

3m Chasers - King George VI Chase types.
Rule 2 refers

5-10yo preferred.
(4) ...take any 3 from the 12 below (numbered in suggested weighting order), then continue to note (5)...

1)  1221  11-2 Kauto Star7 Nicholls [25 50 / 25 17/2 septic foot 12 2]
4)  1453  12-1 Taranis 6 Nicholls [4P injd, out / ]
7)  1295  41-1 Monet's Garden 9 Richards [3 / 24]
9)  1196  113- In Compliance 7 Ir [15/11 setbck 4 / 16/1 prob out]
 


112 Mid Dancer 6 Fr [ / ]
Racing Demon 7 Knight [25 4 / 3]
3¼m Chasers - Cheltenham Gold Cup types (3m 2½f)

5-10yo preferred.
2)   1112  111- Denman 7 Nicholls [54 25 / 20 50]
5)   1307  111- My Way De Solzen 7 King [0P 6/1 has ulcers, now aiming at Ryanair / 2 25/2 now aiming at World Hdl! 00]
8)   1136  21-3 Exotic Dancer 7 O'Neill [23 / 24/1 injd. 27/2 back prob 03]
10) 1438  111- Star de Mohaison 6 Nicholls [3 / ]
 
1F-P Aces Four 8 Murphy [CR2: 24/11 lm / ]
3¼m Hcap Chsrs - Hennessy Gold Cup types

5-10yo preferred.
3)   Wildcard 3 (originally linked with Denman)
6)   1001  1-11 Abragante 6 Pipe [0P / ]
11) 1314  00-1 New Alco 6 Murphy [PU 17/12 off till Spring / ]
12) 1430  124- Snowy Morning 7 Ir [F 10 12 / 333]

Jan 2008 Subs (4) - If you had any promising lines, they inevitably contained both Kauto Star and Denman from the above group.  For any such line which contained a third horse from the above group, you had to consider whether to keep or replace it.  A replacement could be any remaining choice from above not already in the line, or the one below...
1483 Vodka Bleu
8 Pipe [/ 00P]

1F-0 Heltornic 7 [AC: 24/11 injrd rtrd / ].

5.

Sels 9 & 10

Miscellaneous Jumpers

NH pref 4-6yo
SH pref 5-7yo
NC pref 5-8yo
SC pref 6-11yo
(5) ...take any 2 from the final 8 below, then continue down to note (6)...

1) 1197  213- Inglis Drever 8 SH Johnson [20 / 25 50 3]
2) 1318  111- Nickname 8 2mC Ir nds sft [2 / 15 0]
3) 1339  102- Osana 5 2mNC Pipe [2 3212 2]
4) 1097  10-1 Cork All Star 5 2m+NH Ir [LDP: 23 / 20]

5) 1491  112- Wichita Lineman 6 SH O'Neill [42 / 40]
6) Wildcard 4  Novmbr rule   Jan rule
7) 1150  30-1 Forget The Past 9 SC Ir [JS: 4 / 0P]
8) 1223  111- Kazal 6 SNC Ir sm trnr [AC: FF 19/12 reverts to hdls end Jan / 3 24 3]

(6) ...on completing your first line of ten, return to the top of the list and pick another line of ten, choosing differing numbers.  Repeat this until you have completed the number of lines you intend to enter.  We recommend, in your first four lines, that you do all 36 selections (including any blanks pro-rata), so you have covered every horse and every blank at least once in your overall entry.  In each of those four lines, mix the stronger horses and blanks with more speculative horses and, finally, use the blanks as wildcards to fine-tune the lines.  Then, in your subsequent lines, start to whittle your lesser fancies out so as to pull more of your stronger fancies and the blanks together.  We suggest about twelve lines (£120) - this is enough to give you something to look forward to through the whole season for about £6 a week i.e. without breaking the bank if things go bad this year for the shortlist or for your choices from it.  Read more on perming.

Jan 2008 Subs (5) - For each promising line you had, in which you were still free to make one or two changes, you had to consider keeping or replacing whichever of the above original eight choices the line contained.  A replacement could be any remaining choice from above, including Wildcard 4, that was not already used in the line, or from below...
1457 The Listener
8 SC Alner nds sft [/ 50 0] and/or
1051 Blazing Bailey 5 SH [/ 24 29]
Back to top of list



F2-1 Black Jack Ketchum 8 SH O'Neill [PF: 3P / 2/4 rtrd],
-101 Leslingtaylor 5 2mNC Quinn [LDP: F / 16 00],
1FF- Cailin Alainn m 8 SC Ir [LDP: / 4 16 P],
2F-4 Jack High 12 SC Ir [MW: / 0],
10-0 Beef or Salmon 11 SC Ir [34 / 0]


















Mr Pointment (sub?) 8 SC [/ 0 3/3 bbv P]
   Key to abbreviations used in the above table:-

[JS: 32 / 14 25 4S0]  An example like this, after a horse's name, would mean the horse concerned was contributed by reader JS, the horse ran 3rd then 2nd, after substitution time won a 10 point race plus 4 points for its Tote odds, won a 25 point race, ran 4th, slipped up and, finally, nowhere (out of the first four).

7, 8 etc. = a horse's age denoted in red, whether an original or substitute horse, was outside of the preferred age range, at the start of the season, indicated in column 2 (also see under 'red' in this section).

= Chaser    CH = Champion Hurdle type    col = column    d = dead    eas = on easy list    Fr = French trainer    GC = Gold Cup    H = Hurdler   inj = injured    Ir = Irish Trainer    m = mare    NC = Novice Chaser    NH = Novice Hurdler    nr = non-runner in targeted first two bonus races     out = reportedly out for rest of season or, at least, remainder of competition    pd = put down    poss = possible or possibility    PP = Paddy Power Gold Cup    red = all remarks in red are a definite negative for the competition, though not always a bar to inclusion in col 3    S or S = substitute    SC = Staying Chaser    Sel = selection    SH = Staying Hurdler    sm = small    trnr = trainer    yo = years old at start of season.
  
       
  A specimen rule-compliant line from the system's shortlist
in col 3 above was as follows...
 
     
   Type of Horse        Name Pts   
  2m Hurdlers or Wildcard 1
(2 per line)
   Katchit 82  
     Sizing Europe (Sub) 54  
    (Sub'd out - Iktitaf, dead) 0  
  QM, Arkle & R&SA Chase types
(2 per line)
   Voy Por Ustedes 66  
     Tidal Bay 104  
  Paddy Power sel
(1 per line)
   Our Vic (Sub) 86  
    (Sub'd out - L'Antartique) 57  
  3m+ Chasers
(3 per line)
   Kauto Star 112  
     Denman 149  
     Snowy Morning 22  
  Misc or Wildcard 4)
(2 per line)
   Inglis Drever 95  
     Osana 44  
      System's best line  = 871  
      Real winner's score  = 777  

Comments in running (last one first) Back to top
     5.4.08 - 871 - The 2007-8 shortlist bowed out in good style by supplying seven runners in the four feature races on Aintree's final day.  Tidal Bay was the solitary winner +25.  Osana became the 17th losing favourite since 2nd February - and so ended the terrible toll.  And Snowy Morning provided an exciting near miss in the Grand National, after running highly prominently all the way round, jumping surprisingly well, and only just being done out of it in 3rd place at the death.  A fitting finalé to another record breaking performance for our shortlist.     
     4.4.08 - 846 - Only one runner on Aintree's second day, Voy Por Ustedes, which crushed Master Minded which, in turn, had crushed Voy Por just 3 weeks earlier at Cheltenham.  Such is the topsy-turvy of racing.  The shortlist's best line now had a 94 point lead over the new joint real-leaders' 752.  And what a fantastic time to have done it - with only one more day to go - as it left nobody else within striking distance no matter what were to happen on Grand National day!     
     3.4.08 - 817 - Aintree's first day saw Inglis Drever and Kauto Star add to the shortlist's spate of losing favourites - now numbering 16 since the awful lapse began on 2nd February.  But Blazing Bailey became the shortlist's 19th and final different horse to score points, whilst Our Vic extended the best line's lead to 86 points more than the new real leader's total (731).   The system also broke through the 800 points' barrier for the first time ever.     
     2.4.08 - Aintree Preview - The system went into Aintree with a third of its horses (12 No.) expected to run in 7 different races - a good performance by the shortlist.  The best possible line's score of 785 points represented a 70 point lead over the then real leader and looked unassailable.     
    
31.3.08 - March Prize - 304 points in March - For the first time ever, the shortlist created chances of winning the £10K March bonus prize.  On the right is a specimen line from 30 different lines each totalling 304 points.

If discounting any one of the three scorers of 12-points i.e. making a lower score of only 292 points, that then generated several hundred possible lines all capable of scoring 292.  And that would still have been enough to have been a joint real-winner for March.  And a couple of our followers did actually have one of those many lines - so they were winners for real.  In fact, it was two people, Dr Daniel Donoghue and Ian Cusselle from Canterbury, who were having a March 2008 they would never forget because they were winning for a second time, with the same line (not the one shown right) which, two weeks previously, had also given them a share of the Cheltenham £10K prize!
     March 2008 scorers...
   Katchit 57
   Any horse (as W/card 1) 0
   Voy Por Ustedes 12
   Tidal Bay 57
   Our Vic (sub) 54
   Kauto Star 12
   Denman 50
   Monet's Garden 0
   Inglis Drever 50
   Osana 12
  System's March total  = 304
  Real winner's total  = 292
Back to Review
    
     25.3.08 - 785 - Mansony became the shortlist's 14th losing favourite since this unprecedented bad record began on 2nd February.     
     19.3.08 - 785 - Post-Cheltenham summary - The shortlist went into Cheltenham with its best lines lagging 72 points behind the real leader - but emerged with dozens of lines with scores of up to 70 points more than the real leader.

Cheltenham again proved to be a graveyard for SP favourites - only two won at the whole meeting!  That caused the recent spate of losing favourites by horses from the shortlist to rise to 13 when Cheltenham gave only 1W 5L.

Of the list's 24 runners, ten with promising prep-runs behind them won 4 (healthy 40% win ratio), 213 points.  Eight with a disappointing prep run won only 1 (poor 12.5% win ratio), 69 pts.  Five with no prep run won 0 (rubbish zero win ratio), only 12 countable pts.  Trainers please note - running scared of a prep-run is no good!  However, the nine horses that did score for the shortlist fell absolutely perfectly within the five subgroups in the shortlist, and the total points earned by eight of them (304) was enough to win the Cheltenham £10K bonus prize -  and win it for real was just what two of our followers did (see item immediately below).
    
    
18.3.08 - Cheltenham Prize - 304 points at the 2008 Festival - This year the number of bonus races at the Festival was raised from 4 to 7.  And that enabled the shortlist, for the first time ever, to produce lines capable of winning the £10K Cheltenham bonus prize.  30 lines, in fact, each totalling 304 points.  One such line is shown on the right.

If discounting any one of the three scorers of 12 points i.e. leaving a lower score of only 292, that created hundreds of possible lines capable of scoring 292 points.  Which was still enough to have been a joint real winner.  And a couple of our followers did have one of those many lines (not the exact one shown right).

When those two guys made their January substitutions, they followed the system guidelines to the letter.  Their inspired choices were Tidal Bay in (+57), Our Vic in (+54), and L'Antartique out (0).

It must have been a thrilling four days for them, especially as two of their seven scorers grabbed the points in the most exciting finishes of the entire meeting (viz. Katchit's tenacious Champion Hurdle win and Inglis Drever's driving World Hurdle win).

It was an exceptional show of skill, judgeent and tactics by the team concerned, Dr Daniel Donoghue and Ian Cusselle from Canterbury, which rewarded them with a hard-earned but well-deserved share of the £10K prize.
     Chelt. 2008 scorers...
The specimen line featured below is one of the easiest lines capable of winning something the system has ever supplied.  That is because the scoring horses' weightings in the list were all very high - lots of 1s and 2s as shown, and nothing below 4 (halfway down) in any group.
  W    Horse Pts
     Sublimity 0
  2    Katchit 57
  1    Voy Por Ustedes 12
  4    Tidal Bay 57
  2s    Our Vic (sub) 54
  1    Kauto Star 12
  2    Denman 50
  1s    Vodka Bleu (sub) 0
  1    Inglis Drever 50
  3    Osana 12
      System's Chelt total  = 304
      Real winner's total  = 292
Back to Review

    
     13.3.08 - 723 - No second day's racing at Cheltenham this year due to gales threatening damage to, guess what, the hospitality tents!  On the bumper 10-race third day's card, yet another two losing favourites for the shortlist's horses at Cheltenham.  But three countable scorers (Twist Magic +12, Mossbank +12 or Our Vic +54, and Inglis Drever +50) meant there was a line from the shortlist that would have steamed 70 points clear of the real leader's 653.  Plus there were now dozens of alternative lines that would also have all been ahead of the real leader.     
     11.3.08 - 611 - Two more losing favourites for the shortlist's horses but, for once, only to be expected as it was at Cheltenham.  Three scorers (Tidal Bay +57, Katchit +57 and Osana +12) meant four lines from the shortlist could have swept into the lead on 611 points, 20 ahead of the new real leader's total of 591.     
     10.3.08 - Cheltenham Preview - The shortlist's best eight lines (all on 488)  went into Cheltenham with a 72 points' deficit behind the real leader's score of 560.  However, 488 was still worth 9th place and there were at least 24 different lines between 488 and 483 points serving as a springboard.  25 of the 34 horses in the shortlist were probable runners in 8 different races, with at least one probable in all seven bonus races, including the likely favourite in five of the seven - so, a grand performance by the shortlist.     
     25.2.08 - 488 - The shortlist had two runners over the weekend - both favourites, both losers.  That brings the grim total of losing favourites over the last four weekends to eight.  The fact that the horses started favourite meant the shortlist was doing its job quite satisfactorily.  But losers, favourites or otherwise, are not a winning formula in this competition - and the consequence was that the shortlist's eight best lines (all still stuck on 488) would have slipped three more places down to 9th.     
     22.2.08 - 488 - Noland's win meant the number of different lines the shortlist had between 488 and 483 points increased to at least 24.  But the shortlist's eight best-possible lines (still on 488) all slipped down one to now be worth only sixth place.     
     17.2.08 - 488 - The shortlist had six runners in four different races over the weekend, giving two winners and, unfortunately, yet another two losing favourites.  This past fortnight's flurry of failed favourites saw the list's best line pushed down to 5th place, 18 points behind the real leader's score of 506.  Kazal (+24) finally came good today - after we'd sub'd it out a month earlier!  Still, nicely done Alan from Hampton Hill ("AC") who had nominated Kazal back in November.  Katchit became the list's 16th scoring horse.  There are now 20 different lines between 488 and 483 points.     
     11.2.08 - 463 - The shortlist had seven runners in five different races over the weekend, giving two winners and, unfortunately, two more losing favourites.  The best four lines would now be on 463, which would be worth second place on the leader board, 18 points behind the new real leader's score of 481.  The Listener +50 became the list's 15th different scoring horse.     
     2.2.08 - 443 - Four runners today, including hopeless losers at 1-4 & 8-13 - but also one lucky 20-point winner thanks to first two in betting defecting.  That win, by Silverburn, meant the shortlist now had 14 different scoring horses.     
     28.1.08 - 443 points - the shortlist had four runners in the weekend's Cheltenham trials, giving two winners, namely Inglis Drever +25 and Sizing Europe +54.  The latter was a fine suggested substitute by corresponder Jonathan Sutcliffe ('JS') from Cheltenham.  That gave four possible lines on 443 points, 18 more than the new real-leader's score of 425.  Sizing Europe was the shortlist's 13th scoring horse (lucky for some!).     
     26.1.08 - 389 points - A storming 25-point victory by Inglis Drever meant the system had twenty possible lines worth 389, which was a higher score than the real leader's total.     
     24.1.08 - 364 points - The system's twenty best possible lines were all on 364 which was worth joint 3rd place on the leader board, 13 behind the real leader's total of 377.  The shortlist had acquired two new scorers in the new year, making 12 in all.     
     1.1.08 - 364 points - The system's best possible score of 364 was worth 2nd place on the leaderboard, 13 behind the real leader's total of 377.     
    
1.1.08 - December Prize - 282 points in December 2007 - As many as twelve lines from our shortlist scored enough points to have won the December £10,000 bonus prize outright.  It could even have been won by a line with two dead horses in it, as shown right.

Nobody managed to put December's eight scoring horses together in one line for real.  So, sadly, that was the 3rd time in 4 years the system had seen a £10K December prize go begging.
     December 2007 scorers...
   Iktitaf (dead 18/12) 0
   Wildcard 1 (if Mansony) 25
   Voy Por Ustedes 25
   Twist Magic 29
   Granit Jack (dead) 0
   Kauto Star 50
   Denman 79
   Snowy Morning 22
   Inglis Drever 20
   Osana 32
  System's Dec total  = 282
  Real winner's total  = 280
Back to Review
    
     31.12.07 - 364 points - The system's best possible score of 364 was worth 1st place on the leader board, 16 ahead of the real leader's total of 348.  The shortlist ended 2007 with at least two dozen different line combinations that were higher than the then real leader's score of 348.     
     29.12.07 - 352 points - The system's best possible score of 352 was worth 1st place on the leader board, 4 ahead of the real leader's total of 348.     
     27.12.07 - 327 points - Two new winners from the shortlist today meant there was a best possible line worth 1st place again, 4 points ahead of the real leader.  Plus, with ten winners overall in the shortlist, there are now multiple lines good enough to be in the top 20.     
     26.12.07 - 299 points - Kauto Star's Boxing Day romp was not enough to prevent our system's best possible line, after a nine day stint when it was worth 1st place, being pushed down to 5th place.  The new real leader was 24 ahead on 323.     
     22.12.07 - 249 points - After today's racing, the new real leader was up to 246 - which meant the system's best-possible line's 'lead' was cut to only three points.  However, over Xmas, another dozen horses from the shortlist were due to run, in six different races, including the projected forecast favourites for all six, so there seemed to be plenty to look forward to.     
     17.12.07 - 249 points - Over a third of the shortlist's remaining sound horses ran on 15.12.07 (ten to be exact) in five different races, giving the winners of three of them.  So, exactly four weeks into the competition, if anybody had put the shortlist's eight current winners in one line (nobody had) they would have jumped from 90th place to 1st place on the official leaderboard, 8 points ahead of the real leader.     
     10.12.07 - 195 points - If anybody had put the shortlist's first six winners in one line, they would have found their name was on the leader board in joint 90th place.     
     1.12.07 - 166 points - After today's breathtaking Hennessy win by Denman, the new real leader was on 215.  The total for our five winners to date of 166 was 5 points short of being on the next leaderboard published on 4.12.07.     
     30.11.07 - 92 points - The first leaderboard appeared in the Racing Post today.  The real leader was on 149.  The total for our three winners to date was 22 points short of being on the first leader board.     
     17.11.07 - 57 points - This year, we thought we'd done extremely well to make do with only 32 named horses - our smallest shortlist for several years.  But, by only day two of the competition, four of those were lost, either injured or dead, leaving only 28 still available.  That bad luck spoiled a lot of our own real lines.     
 
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