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| System for the Tote Ten To Follow : |
| Oct 2007: Welcome to
our free system for the Tote Racing Post Ten To Follow competition which is now its 10th season
online. Our objective is to give anyone picking their own lines purely from our system's shortlist of 36 horses a serious chance of being the next big winner. That could certainly have been the case several times in the past. In fact, in eight of the nine past seasons... |
covered, the system gained enough points to have finished - in
chronological order - 1st, 1st, 2nd, 0, 1st, 4th, 11th (but with a monthly prize),
1st, & 1st (plus a monthly prize), potentially netting over £1,618,000 in prize-money. The 2007-8 Jumps comp. begins on 16th November 2007 and ends on Grand National day, 5th April 2008. |
| Final shortlist posted here 15.11.07 at 11.55am | View FINAL performance as of 5.4.08 |
| Review of 2007-8 (posted 13.4.08)
- Of the Jumps' competition just ended, multiple horse deaths, injuries and losing favourites
will no doubt be the main "what might have been" memory for most players - including
ourselves. Despite that, it was still another very solid performance by the Jumps version
of our system and, for some followers, genuinely successful. There were possible lines
capable of leading after the fourth week, were never lower than 9th after that and, emerging
from Cheltenham, there were multiple possible leading lines through to the end of the
competition. It ultimately proved to be the system's best-ever season and, one of the
easiest too due to the number of higher-ranked horses and substitutes in the shortlist which
went on to score big points. December 2007 - Three weeks into the competition was the first time a line from the shortlist was capable of being on the leaderboard - scraping in at number 90. One week later and there was a line good enough to be leading. By the end of December, there were two dozen lines capable of leading. That points-surge during December led to the shortlist containing twelve lines good enough to have won the £10K December bonus prize. It was the third time in four years the system had pulled off that feat. More on Dec prize. February 2008 - By February, the shortlist had already suffered some bad losing favourites. But it was to get even worse. On February 2nd, the shortlist suffered two losers at the cramped odds of 1-4 & 8-13. That began an unprecedented spate of beaten favourites which spiralled to no less than 17 line-wrecking and prize-costing failures for most users over the next 2 months. Cheltenham 2008 - The aforementioned run of losing favourites had driven the shortlist's best line from the equivalent of 1st place down to a precarious 9th place by the time Cheltenham came round. However, the list had dozens of lines at around that position, serving as a potential springboard, and, indeed, by the end of the 4-day Cheltenham Festival, multiple possible lines had shot back up and secured a huge theoretical advantage over the then real leader. That points-surge during the Festival led to the shortlist containing 30 lines good enough to have won the £10K Cheltenham bonus prize outright. The system was achieving this feat for the first time ever. Two of the system's followers were joint sharers in that prize for real. More on Chelt prize. March 2008 - By the end of March, the shortlist contained 30 lines good enough to have won the £10K March bonus prize outright. The system was achieving the March feat for the first time ever. Two of the system's followers were joint sharers in the March prize for real. More on Mar prize. April 2008 - The system emerged from the concluding Aintree meeting with a best-possible line on 871 points - smashing the system's previous best score of 790 points set only in the season previous. That was also an absolutely astounding 94 points clear of the real winner's total of 777 - the widest possible winning margin ever achieved by the system in any of the ten seasons it has been online. Moreover, it was not a one-off fluke line, but just one of no less than 134 different possible lines that all finished with more points than the real winner's total. Enough lines, in fact, to have made a clean sweep of all ten top-ten places on the leaderboard more than a dozen times over - surpassing the previous season's record of 90 lines or nine-times over. The main prize this season was £455,000 which, with the addition of £30K from a record three possible bonus prize wins, meant the potential winnings, by using our free system, over the ten seasons it cont. in RH col. |
cont. from LH col. has been appearing here online, have been well in excess of £2,103,000. Obituary - One of our team, Ernie, passed away suddenly from a stroke in 2007. Luckily, while doing something he liked best - the way we'd all like to go if we were able to choose. Ernie took with him 50 years of accrued punting knowledge. His greatest contribution for the system was the hurdler Rooster Booster in Tips - The absence of Er Also deserving credit are those who provided the good negative news that led to the exclusion of some horses, like the popular Detroit City, Aran Concerto and Afsoun. Those bombers, between them, were in over 13,000 lists! That kind of negative info can be just as valuable as giving a winner. We won't mention our sleuths by name, just in case, but, as ever, great intelligence. Finally - Just seeing one's name in the paper in this competition, however briefly, is a major accomplishment in itself. But this year, followers defied all the odds by actually winning bonus prizes, and some even finished in the final top twenty. Indeed, two we know of were just a single, agonising, 10 point or 12 point winner respectively off the ultimate glory of a top-ten pick-up. They were Noel Santry's syndicate from Cork and Dr Dan Donoghue's two-man team from Canterbury. Great stuff guys. And here's another nice story to end with. The team which finished in 3rd place overall, 'Annie And Her Boys', turns out to be a family syndicate comprising a mum from Leeds and her four grown-up sons. Two of the brothers, Alan and Stewart Cochrane, are known to base their individual entries on our formula, but like to put their own horses in each category to a degree. Stewart finished 13th and Alan 84th - so they were both right up there. However, it was the family's entry which won. And it did not go unnoticed by us that the winning line was the only line in the final top ten that could have been plucked straight out of our actual shortlist - so well done mum Annie! And, if Kauto Star had not lost by that nose to Our Vic at the end of the competition, or if Cork All Star had not been a three-time losing favourite back at the start of the competition, they would have scooped the whole lot! Even so, they still got to share £32,500 between them for 3rd place. A fantastic win. And thanks to Alan for letting us recount the tale. |
| The Jumps' system - The competition's master list of horses is reduced by our team from 500 down to just 36 maximum. This more manageable highly-focused shortlist is then divided into five smaller subgroups to... | simplify and facilitate final selection, perming and well-structured line composition. The shortlist, complete with integral perming instructions, is in column 3 of the table below. |
| Key - a key to abbreviations appears after the shortlist. |
| Sctn | Categories (Type of Jumper) |
SHORTLIST (this col) - 32 named horses originally, 34 after subs
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Others considered but not used Rule 5 refers
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| Col 2 | Col 3 | Col 4 | ||||||||||
1. Sels 1 & 2 |
2m Hurdlers - Chmpn Hdl types. All ages are shown as at start of comp., including ages of subs. |
Perming Instructions
(1) - When entering the TTF in November, for your first line of ten, start by taking any
two from the four below, then continue down to note (2)... 1) 1445 411- Sublimity 7 Ir [4 / 4] 2) 1220 11-1 Katchit 4 King [32 / 25 57] 3) 4) Wildcard 1 Novmbr rule Jan rule Jan 2008 Subs (1) - If, in January, you had a promising line, you had to consider keeping or replacing whichever of the above four choices the line contained - with Iktitaf (dead) being the obvious reject if it was in the line in question. A replacement could be any remaining choice from above, including Wildcard 1, that was not already in the line, or from below... 1442 Straw Bear 6 Gifford [/ 203] and/or... 1172 Harchibald 8 Ir [/SA: 0] and/or... 1425 Sizing Europe 5 Ir [/JS: 54 0 12/3 injd, out] NB: You could vary your choice of |
Aitmatov (consdrd as a sub) 6 Ir [/Tel: P20] |
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2. Sels 3 & 4 |
2m Chasers - Qn Mother Chase types. |
(2) ...take any 2 from the 8 below (which are numbered in suggested weighting order), then continue
to note (3)... 1) 1484 1u1- Voy Por Ustedes 6 King [22 25 / 2 12 29] 2) 1476 F1-1 Twist Magic 5 Nicholls [29 / 20] 5) 8) 1272 21-1 Mansony 8 Ir [DD: 2 25 / 3P3] |
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| 2m Nov Chasers - Arkle Trophy types. |
3) 1324 111/ Noland 6 Nicholls
[- / 10 12 3] 6) |
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3m Nov Chasers - SunAlliance types. |
4) 1462 21-1 Tidal
Bay 6 Johnson [JS: 10 12 28/12 trnr says goes for Arkle / 2 57 25] 7) 1419 140- Silverburn 6 Nicholls [23 / 20 0] Jan 2008 Subs (2) - For each promising line you had, you had to consider keeping or replacing whichever of the above original eight choices the line contained. A replacement could be any remaining choice from above that was not already in the line, or the one below... 1121 Duc de Regniere 5 Hendrsn [/JS: 2 28/2 setback] |
112- Money Trix 7 Richards [ / 15 9/2
setbck], Air Force One (sub?) 5 3mNC [/ 10 2] |
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3. Sel 5 |
2½m Hcap Chsrs - Paddy Power Gold Cup types. Rule 1 refers |
(3) ...take
any 1 from the 4 below, then continue down to note (4)... 1) Wildcard 2 (originally linked with Abragante) 2) 3) 1237 1U-1 L'Antartique 7 Murphy [57 0 / 40] 4) 1096 100- Copsale Lad 10 Hendrsn [00P / 0] Jan 2008 Subs (3) - If you had any promising lines, they inevitably contained L'Antartique. You had to decide whether to keep it or, as here, replace it and carry the 57 points forward. If sub'd out, the replacement could be the remaining choice from above (i.e. Copsale Lad?), or one from below... 1299 Mossbank 7 Ir [/ 12] or 1350 Our Vic 9 Pipe [/ 2 54 32] or 1426 Sky's The Limit 6 NC [/ 04] If you made a change in this section, you were free to make one other change elsewhere in that particular line. |
431-B Private Be 8 Hobbs [MP: 0 / P] 341- Idole First 8 VWilliams [CR: P0 /RW (tipped in Nov as a Jan sub): ] |
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4. Sels 6, 7 & 8 |
3m Chasers - King George VI Chase types. Rule 2 refers 5-10yo preferred. |
(4) ...take
any 3 from the 12 below (numbered in suggested weighting order), then continue to note (5)... 1) 1221 11-2 Kauto Star7 Nicholls [25 50 / 25 17/2 septic foot 12 2] 4) 7) 1295 41-1 Monet's Garden 9 Richards [3 / 24] 9) 1196 113- In Compliance 7 Ir [15/11 setbck 4 / 16/1 prob out] |
112 Mid Dancer 6 Fr [ / ] Racing Demon 7 Knight [25 4 / 3] |
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| 3¼m Chasers - Cheltenham Gold Cup types (3m 2½f) 5-10yo preferred. |
2) 1112 111-
Denman 7 Nicholls [54 25 / 20 50] 5) 1307 111- My Way De Solzen 7 King [0P 6/1 has ulcers, now aiming at Ryanair / 2 25/2 now aiming at World Hdl! 00] 8) 1136 21-3 Exotic Dancer 7 O'Neill [23 / 24/1 injd. 27/2 back prob 03] 10) 1438 111- Star de Mohaison 6 Nicholls [3 / ] |
1F-P Aces Four 8 Murphy [CR2: 24/11 lm / ] | ||||||||||
| 3¼m Hcap Chsrs - Hennessy Gold Cup types |
3) Wildcard
3 (originally linked with Denman) 6) 1001 1-11 Abragante 6 Pipe [0P / ] 11) 1314 00-1 New Alco 6 Murphy [PU 17/12 off till Spring / ] 12) 1430 124- Snowy Morning 7 Ir [F 10 12 / 333] Jan 2008 Subs (4) - If you had any promising lines, they inevitably contained both Kauto Star and Denman from the above group. For any such line which contained a third horse from the above group, you had to consider whether to keep or replace it. A replacement could be any remaining choice from above not already in the line, or the one below... 1483 Vodka Bleu 8 Pipe [/ 00P] |
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5. Sels 9 & 10 |
Miscellaneous Jumpers NH pref 4-6yo SH pref 5-7yo NC pref 5-8yo SC pref 6-11yo |
(5) ...take any
2 from the final 8 below, then continue down to note (6)... 1) 1197 213- Inglis Drever 8 SH Johnson [20 / 25 50 3] 2) 1318 111- Nickname 8 2mC Ir nds sft [2 / 15 0] 3) 1339 102- Osana 5 2mNC Pipe [2 32 / 12 2] 4) 1097 10-1 Cork All Star 5 2m+NH Ir [LDP: 23 / 20] 5) 1491 112- Wichita Lineman 6 SH O'Neill [42 / 40] 6) Wildcard 4 Novmbr rule Jan rule 7) 1150 30-1 Forget The Past 9 SC Ir [JS: 4 / 0P] 8) 1223 111- Kazal 6 SNC Ir sm trnr [AC: FF 19/12 reverts to hdls end Jan / 3 (6) ...on completing your first line of ten, return to the top of the list and pick another line of ten, choosing differing numbers. Repeat this until you have completed the number of lines you intend to enter. We recommend, in your first four lines, that you do all 36 selections (including any blanks pro-rata), so you have covered every horse and every blank at least once in your overall entry. In each of those four lines, mix the stronger horses and blanks with more speculative horses and, finally, use the blanks as wildcards to fine-tune the lines. Then, in your subsequent lines, start to whittle your lesser fancies out so as to pull more of your stronger fancies and the blanks together. We suggest about twelve lines (£120) - this is enough to give you something to look forward to through the whole season for about £6 a week i.e. without breaking the bank if things go bad this year for the shortlist or for your choices from it. Read more on perming. Jan 2008 Subs (5) - For each promising line you had, in which you were still free to make one or two changes, you had to consider keeping or replacing whichever of the above original eight choices the line contained. A replacement could be any remaining choice from above, including Wildcard 4, that was not already used in the line, or from below... 1457 The Listener 8 SC Alner nds sft [/ 50 0] and/or 1051 Blazing Bailey 5 SH [/ 24 29] Back to top of list |
-101 Leslingtaylor 5 2mNC Quinn [LDP: F / 16 00], 1FF- Cailin Alainn m 8 SC Ir [LDP: / 4 16 P], 2F-4 Jack High 12 SC Ir [MW: / 0], 10-0 Beef or Salmon 11 SC Ir [34 / 0] Mr Pointment (sub?) 8 SC [/ 0 3/3 bbv P] |
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| Key to abbreviations used in the above table:- [JS: 32 / 14 25 4S0] An example like this, after a horse's name, would mean the horse concerned was contributed by reader JS, the horse ran 3rd then 2nd, after substitution time won a 10 point race plus 4 points for its Tote odds, won a 25 point race, ran 4th, slipped up and, finally, nowhere (out of the first four). 7, 8 etc. = a horse's age denoted in red, whether an original or substitute horse, was outside of the preferred age range, at the start of the season, indicated in column 2 (also see under 'red' in this section). C = Chaser CH = Champion Hurdle type col = column d = dead eas = on easy list Fr = French trainer GC = Gold Cup H = Hurdler inj = injured Ir = Irish Trainer m = mare NC = Novice Chaser NH = Novice Hurdler nr = non-runner in targeted first two bonus races out = reportedly out for rest of season or, at least, remainder of competition pd = put down poss = possible or possibility PP = Paddy Power Gold Cup red = all remarks in red are a definite negative for the competition, though not always a bar to inclusion in col 3 S or S = substitute SC = Staying Chaser Sel = selection SH = Staying Hurdler sm = small trnr = trainer yo = years old at start of season. |
| A specimen rule-compliant
line from the system's shortlist in col 3 above was as follows... |
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| Type of Horse | Name | Pts | |||
| 2m Hurdlers or Wildcard 1 (2 per line) |
| Katchit | 82 | ||
| | Sizing Europe (Sub) | 54 | |||
| (Sub'd out - Iktitaf, dead) | 0 | ||||
| QM, Arkle & R&SA Chase types (2 per line) |
| Voy Por Ustedes | 66 | ||
| | Tidal Bay | 104 | |||
| Paddy Power sel (1 per line) |
| Our Vic (Sub) | 86 | ||
| (Sub'd out - L'Antartique) | 57 | ||||
| 3m+ Chasers (3 per line) |
| Kauto Star | 112 | ||
| | Denman | 149 | |||
| | Snowy Morning | 22 | |||
| Misc or Wildcard 4) (2 per line) |
| Inglis Drever | 95 | ||
| | Osana | 44 | |||
| System's best line | = 871 | ||||
| Real winner's score | = 777 | ||||
| Comments in running (last one first) | Back to top |
| 5.4.08 - 871 - The 2007-8 shortlist bowed out in good style by supplying seven runners in the four feature races on Aintree's final day. Tidal Bay was the solitary winner +25. Osana became the 17th losing favourite since 2nd February - and so ended the terrible toll. And Snowy Morning provided an exciting near miss in the Grand National, after running highly prominently all the way round, jumping surprisingly well, and only just being done out of it in 3rd place at the death. A fitting finalé to another record breaking performance for our shortlist. |
| 4.4.08 - 846 - Only one runner on Aintree's second day, Voy Por Ustedes, which crushed Master Minded which, in turn, had crushed Voy Por just 3 weeks earlier at Cheltenham. Such is the topsy-turvy of racing. The shortlist's best line now had a 94 point lead over the new joint real-leaders' 752. And what a fantastic time to have done it - with only one more day to go - as it left nobody else within striking distance no matter what were to happen on Grand National day! |
| 3.4.08 - 817 - Aintree's first day saw Inglis Drever and Kauto Star add to the shortlist's spate of losing favourites - now numbering 16 since the awful lapse began on 2nd February. But Blazing Bailey became the shortlist's 19th and final different horse to score points, whilst Our Vic extended the best line's lead to 86 points more than the new real leader's total (731). The system also broke through the 800 points' barrier for the first time ever. |
| 2.4.08 - Aintree Preview - The system went into Aintree with a third of its horses (12 No.) expected to run in 7 different races - a good performance by the shortlist. The best possible line's score of 785 points represented a 70 point lead over the then real leader and looked unassailable. |
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| 25.3.08 - 785 - Mansony became the shortlist's 14th losing favourite since this unprecedented bad record began on 2nd February. |
| 19.3.08 - 785 - Post-Cheltenham summary - The
shortlist went into Cheltenham with its best lines lagging 72 points behind the real leader - but emerged with dozens of lines
with scores of up to 70 points more than the real leader. Cheltenham again proved to be a graveyard for SP favourites - only two won at the whole meeting! That caused the recent spate of losing favourites by horses from the shortlist to rise to 13 when Cheltenham gave only 1W 5L. Of the list's 24 runners, ten with promising prep-runs behind them won 4 (healthy 40% win ratio), 213 points. Eight with a disappointing prep run won only 1 (poor 12.5% win ratio), 69 pts. Five with no prep run won 0 (rubbish zero win ratio), only 12 countable pts. Trainers please note - running scared of a prep-run is no good! However, the nine horses that did score for the shortlist fell absolutely perfectly within the five subgroups in the shortlist, and the total points earned by eight of them (304) was enough to win the Cheltenham £10K bonus prize - and win it for real was just what two of our followers did (see item immediately below). |
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| 13.3.08 - 723 - No second day's racing at Cheltenham this year due to gales threatening damage to, guess what, the hospitality tents! On the bumper 10-race third day's card, yet another two losing favourites for the shortlist's horses at Cheltenham. But three countable scorers (Twist Magic +12, Mossbank +12 or Our Vic +54, and Inglis Drever +50) meant there was a line from the shortlist that would have steamed 70 points clear of the real leader's 653. Plus there were now dozens of alternative lines that would also have all been ahead of the real leader. |
| 11.3.08 - 611 - Two more losing favourites for the shortlist's horses but, for once, only to be expected as it was at Cheltenham. Three scorers (Tidal Bay +57, Katchit +57 and Osana +12) meant four lines from the shortlist could have swept into the lead on 611 points, 20 ahead of the new real leader's total of 591. |
| 10.3.08 - Cheltenham Preview - The shortlist's best eight lines (all on 488) went into Cheltenham with a 72 points' deficit behind the real leader's score of 560. However, 488 was still worth 9th place and there were at least 24 different lines between 488 and 483 points serving as a springboard. 25 of the 34 horses in the shortlist were probable runners in 8 different races, with at least one probable in all seven bonus races, including the likely favourite in five of the seven - so, a grand performance by the shortlist. |
| 25.2.08 - 488 - The shortlist had two runners over the weekend - both favourites, both losers. That brings the grim total of losing favourites over the last four weekends to eight. The fact that the horses started favourite meant the shortlist was doing its job quite satisfactorily. But losers, favourites or otherwise, are not a winning formula in this competition - and the consequence was that the shortlist's eight best lines (all still stuck on 488) would have slipped three more places down to 9th. |
| 22.2.08 - 488 - Noland's win meant the number of different lines the shortlist had between 488 and 483 points increased to at least 24. But the shortlist's eight best-possible lines (still on 488) all slipped down one to now be worth only sixth place. |
| 17.2.08 - 488 - The shortlist had six runners in four different races over the weekend, giving two winners and, unfortunately, yet another two losing favourites. This past fortnight's flurry of failed favourites saw the list's best line pushed down to 5th place, 18 points behind the real leader's score of 506. Kazal (+24) finally came good today - after we'd sub'd it out a month earlier! Still, nicely done Alan from Hampton Hill ("AC") who had nominated Kazal back in November. Katchit became the list's 16th scoring horse. There are now 20 different lines between 488 and 483 points. |
| 11.2.08 - 463 - The shortlist had seven runners in five different races over the weekend, giving two winners and, unfortunately, two more losing favourites. The best four lines would now be on 463, which would be worth second place on the leader board, 18 points behind the new real leader's score of 481. The Listener +50 became the list's 15th different scoring horse. |
| 2.2.08 - 443 - Four runners today, including hopeless losers at 1-4 & 8-13 - but also one lucky 20-point winner thanks to first two in betting defecting. That win, by Silverburn, meant the shortlist now had 14 different scoring horses. |
| 28.1.08 - 443 points - the shortlist had four runners in the weekend's Cheltenham trials, giving two winners, namely Inglis Drever +25 and Sizing Europe +54. The latter was a fine suggested substitute by corresponder Jonathan Sutcliffe ('JS') from Cheltenham. That gave four possible lines on 443 points, 18 more than the new real-leader's score of 425. Sizing Europe was the shortlist's 13th scoring horse (lucky for some!). |
| 26.1.08 - 389 points - A storming 25-point victory by Inglis Drever meant the system had twenty possible lines worth 389, which was a higher score than the real leader's total. |
| 24.1.08 - 364 points - The system's twenty best possible lines were all on 364 which was worth joint 3rd place on the leader board, 13 behind the real leader's total of 377. The shortlist had acquired two new scorers in the new year, making 12 in all. |
| 1.1.08 - 364 points - The system's best possible score of 364 was worth 2nd place on the leaderboard, 13 behind the real leader's total of 377. |
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| 31.12.07 - 364 points - The system's best possible score of 364 was worth 1st place on the leader board, 16 ahead of the real leader's total of 348. The shortlist ended 2007 with at least two dozen different line combinations that were higher than the then real leader's score of 348. |
| 29.12.07 - 352 points - The system's best possible score of 352 was worth 1st place on the leader board, 4 ahead of the real leader's total of 348. |
| 27.12.07 - 327 points - Two new winners from the shortlist today meant there was a best possible line worth 1st place again, 4 points ahead of the real leader. Plus, with ten winners overall in the shortlist, there are now multiple lines good enough to be in the top 20. |
| 26.12.07 - 299 points - Kauto Star's Boxing Day romp was not enough to prevent our system's best possible line, after a nine day stint when it was worth 1st place, being pushed down to 5th place. The new real leader was 24 ahead on 323. |
| 22.12.07 - 249 points - After today's racing, the new real leader was up to 246 - which meant the system's best-possible line's 'lead' was cut to only three points. However, over Xmas, another dozen horses from the shortlist were due to run, in six different races, including the projected forecast favourites for all six, so there seemed to be plenty to look forward to. |
| 17.12.07 - 249 points - Over a third of the shortlist's remaining sound horses ran on 15.12.07 (ten to be exact) in five different races, giving the winners of three of them. So, exactly four weeks into the competition, if anybody had put the shortlist's eight current winners in one line (nobody had) they would have jumped from 90th place to 1st place on the official leaderboard, 8 points ahead of the real leader. |
| 10.12.07 - 195 points - If anybody had put the shortlist's first six winners in one line, they would have found their name was on the leader board in joint 90th place. |
| 1.12.07 - 166 points - After today's breathtaking Hennessy win by Denman, the new real leader was on 215. The total for our five winners to date of 166 was 5 points short of being on the next leaderboard published on 4.12.07. |
| 30.11.07 - 92 points - The first leaderboard appeared in the Racing Post today. The real leader was on 149. The total for our three winners to date was 22 points short of being on the first leader board. |
| 17.11.07 - 57 points - This year, we thought we'd done extremely well to make do with only 32 named horses - our smallest shortlist for several years. But, by only day two of the competition, four of those were lost, either injured or dead, leaving only 28 still available. That bad luck spoiled a lot of our own real lines. |
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