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   System for the Tote Ten To Follow : 2006-7 Jumps   
   Sep 2006:  Welcome to the 9th time our free system for the Tote Racing Post Ten To Follow competition has appeared here online.

Our objective is to give anyone picking their own personal lines from our final shortlist on this page a serious chance of being the next big winner.  That could certainly have been the case several times in...		    the past.  In fact, in seven of our eight online showings to date, the system gained enough points to have finished - in chronological order - 1st, 1st, 2nd, 0, 1st, 4th, 11th (+ Dec £10K prize), and 1st, potentially netting over £1,153,000 in prize-money.

The current compy began on 10th November 2006 and ends on Grand National Day, 14th April 2007.		   
   Final shortlist posted here 8.11.06 at 01.25    View FINAL performance as of 14.4.07   
   Review of 2006-7 - The 2006-7 season was the most solid performance ever by the system's shortlist.  Capable of leading after the third week and continually producing multiple possible leading lines all the way through.

December 2006 - The shortlist contained a line good enough to have won the £10K monthly prize.  The second time the system had pulled off that difficult feat.  More on Dec prize.

March 2007 - The system came out of Cheltenham with a line that was a huge 79 points clear of the real leader.

April 2007 - The system came out of Aintree with a best-possible line on 790 points, smashing the system's previous best score of 702 points set only in the season previous.  That was also a whole 59 points clear of the real winner's final total of 731.  Moreover, it was not a...		    one-off fluke line, but merely the highest from at least 90 different lines that all finished with more points than the real winner's total - half of those lines not even needing prolific scorer Exotic Dancer.  Those lines were enough to have made a clean sweep of all ten top-ten places on the leader board nine times over!  The shortlist had never managed anything as overwhelming as that before.

The season's first prize of £455,000, plus the December £10K prize, meant the possible winnings from our free system, in the nine seasons it had appeared here online, were well in excess of £1,618,000.

It's time now for a summer break from all this for all at Capital Ratings.  But we should be back again next October in time for the build-up to the 2007-8 Ten To Follow Jumps' competition.  See you all then.		   
   Key - a key to abbreviations appears after the shortlist.   
Sctn Categories
(Type of Jumper)
 SHORTLIST (this col) - 33 named horses originally, 34 after subs
 Others considered but not used [Footnote (e) refers]
  Col 2 Col 3 Col 4
   
blue highlighted name = best ten sels
bold red name = sub'd into shortlist  View Subs rule
grey name = sub'd out of shortlist in Jan
[ / ] = results in comp before / after Jan subs


1.

Sel 1 & 2
2m Hurdlers - Chmpn Hdl types.

4-6yo preferred ages (at start of comp).		 Nov 2006 (1) Perm - When entering the TTF, for your first line of ten, start by taking any two from the four below, then continue down to note 'Nov 2006 (2)':

1) 1061  112- Brave Inca 8 Ir [3 29 25 / 12 12]
2) 1110  111- Detroit City 4 Hobbs [25 25 / 15 00]
3) 1263  121- Macs Joy 7 Ir [7/1 has had pulled muscle / 32]
4) 1193  1-11 Iktitaf 5 Ir [25 2 / 0F]

Jan 2007 Subs (1) - No subs in this first sctn.  Scroll down to note 'Jan 2007 Subs (2)' etc to see the subs.

111- Feathard Lady 6 m Ir [2/1 bn injrd / 12/2 rtrd], 11-0 Asian Maze 7 SH Ir [L / 0LL], 0-12 Desert Quest 6 Nicholls {L 3 / ], Straw Bear 5 Gifford {25 4 / 2 25 P bbv], 12-4 Harchibald 7 Ir [28/11 injrd again / 0], Hardy Eustace 9 Ir [25 2 / 57 L]

2.

Sels 3 & 4
2m Chasers - Qn Mother Chase types.

5-8yo preferred.		 Nov 2006 (2) ...take any 2 from the 8 below, then continue down to Nov 2006 (3):

1) 1226  1F-1 Kauto Star 6 Nicholls [25 25 50 / 20 50]
2) 1308  111- Newmill 8 Ir [4 / F 24 L]
3) 1478  112- Voy Por Ustedes 5 King [2 25 / F 54]
4)  Wildcard 1
 

131- Foreman 8 Fr, 14-2 Watson Lake 8 Ir [L / FL 15 L]
  2m Nov Chasers - Arkle Trophy types.
5-8yo preferred.		 5) 1320  111- Noland 5 Nicholls [9/11 out / ]
6)1158  21-1 Glenfinn Captain 7 Ir [F / 15/1 colic, out]		 Buena Vista 5 Pipe
Briarieus 6 Balding [L 19 / 15/1 lung infctn, 11/2 out, lm]
  3m Nov Chasers - SunAlliance types.
5-9yo preferred.		 7) 1107  12-1 Denman (as w/card 2) 6 Nicholls [12 15 / 12 25]
8) 1301  12-2 My Way De Solzen (as w/card 3) 6 King [10 2 15 / 15 29]

Jan 2007 Subs (2) - If, in January, you had any promising lines, you had to consider changing one or both of the above eight horses each line contained to any other horse(s) in this section not already used in the same line, or to...

1482 Well Chief 7 Pipe [/ 25 F3] and/or...
1130 Fair Along 4 Hobbs [/ 2L2]		 2-11 Turko 4 Nicholls [2 / 10 LL], Patriarch Express 9 Smith, 1-11Standin Obligation 7 Pipe [12 L / LL],

3.

Sel 5
2½m Hcap Chsrs - Paddy Power Gold Cup types.

5-9yo preferred.		 Nov 2006 ((3) ...take any 1 from the 4 below [see Footnote a)], then continue down to Nov 2006 (4):

1) 1440  11-1  Taranis 5 Nichols [F 3 / 20 29 2]
2) 1477  11/-   Vodka Bleu 7 Pipe [12 / 04L]
3) 1089  1PP- Commercial Flyer 7 Ir [nr F L / ]
4) 1220  410-  Kandjar d'Allier 8 King [0 22 / 0F]

Jan 2007 Subs (3) - If you had any promising lines, you had to consider changing whichever one of the above 4 horses each line contained to any other horse in this group not already used in the same line, or to...

1128 Exotic Dancer 6 O'Neill [/ 29 12 25] or...
1310 Nickname 7 Ir [ /LDP 15 15 20 15]

123- Copsale Lad 9 Henderson [PP / 26 LL], U2-1 Too Forward 10 Llewellyn [0 15 / ], 03-2 Contraband 8 Pipe,

4.

Sels 6, 7 & 8
3¼m Hcap Chsrs - Hennessy Gold Cup types.

5-10yo preferred.
 Nov 2006 (4) ...take any 3 from the 12 below [see Footnote d)], then continue down to Nov 2006 (5):

1) 1426  101- State of Play 6 sm trnr [61 / 04]
2) 1290  110- Montgermont 6 Egerton [0 / ]
3) 1419  01-1 Southern Vic 7 Ir [CR nr 020 / F]
4) 1468  02-1 Turpin Green 7 Richards [JS P / 18/1 injrd back in Henn 230]
 

30P- Cornish Rebel 9 Nicholls [P0 15 / 0], 1F-0 Innox 10 Fr,
  3m Chasers - King George VI Chase types.

5-10yo preferred.		 5) Wildcard 2  Linked with lines containing Kauto Star Rule.
6) 1286  21-1  Monet's Garden 8 Richards [L / 25 L 29]
7) 1338  01-1  Our Vic 8 Pipe [ / 223]
8) 1366  10-u  Racing Demon 6 Knight [25 3 / FL]
 		 3P-1 Impek 10 Knight [13/11 injd, 5/12 lame / ], 043- Monkerhostin 9 Hobbs, 1112 Mid Dancer 5 Fr,  L'Ami 7 Fr, Our Ben,  -F Back In Front 9 Ir [w / ], Fota Island 10 ir, Lacdoudal 7 Hobbs,
  3¼m Chasers - Cheltenham Gold Cup types (3m 2½)

5-10yo preferred.		   9) 1480  1-12  War Of Attrition 7 Ir [2 3 / 3/3 out]  
10) 1198  23-1  In Compliance 6 Ir [29 / 21/2 on easy list]
11) 1424  111-  Star De Mohaison 5 Nicholls [20 15 13/12 out / ]
12) 1072  0u1-  Celestial Gold 8 Pipe [6/12 out / ].

Jan 2007 Subs (4) - If you had any promising lines, you had to consider changing any one or two of the three horses that each line contained, from the above 12 horses, to any other horse(s) in this section not already used in the same line, or to...

1449 The Listener 7 Alner SC [nds sft / 12 0] and/or
1174 Halcon Genelardais 6 King SC [might not go for GN / 30] 		130- Forget The Past 8 Ir [12/12 injd back / 10 15 40L]
20-4 Kingscliff 9 Alner [28/11 off till spring / ]

5.

Sels 9 & 10
Misc Jumpers

NH pref 4-6yo.
SH pref 5-7yo.
NC pref 5-8yo
SC pref 6-11yo.		 Nov 2006 (5) ...take any 2 from the final 8 below, then continue down to Nov 2006 (6):

1) 1050  111- Black Jack Ketchum SH 7 O'Neill [15 / 0F2]
2) 1045  2-01 Beef or Salmon 10 Ir [Tel 2 10 2 / 50 0]
3) 1304  01-1 Natal 5 NC Nicholls [2 10 4 / 15 0 ]
4) 1233  33-1 Kicks For Free 4 NH Nicholls [JS 15 2 3 / LL]

5) 1279  231- Mighty Man 6 SH Daly [2 25 / 12 25]
6) 1216  21-3 Justified 7 Ir [P 11/12 injd back / 20]
7) 1171  20-1 Gungadu 6 NC Nicholls [2 / 12 15 L]
8) Wildcard 3  Rule

Nov 2006 (6) ...and repeat over again, from the top, with differing Nos, until you have completed the number of lines you intend to enter.  Read more on perming

Jan 2007 Subs (5) - If you had any promising lines, you had to consider changing either or both of the two horses each line contained from the above 8 horses to any other horse(s) in this section not already used in the same line, or to...

1185 Hedgehunter 10 SC Ir [/JS for GN: 21/2 injd knee (since Nov trnr reveals on 27/3!) 00] and/or
1455 Tidal Bay 5 NH Johnson [/ 2 25]

 

30-3 Sky's The Limit 5 SH Ir [RW 30 / 2], Inglis Drever 7 SH Johnson [15 / 2 54 L]
   Key to abbreviations used in the above table:-
[LDP: 32 / 14 25 4S0]  An example like this, after a horse's name, would mean the horse concerned was contributed by reader LDP, the horse ran 3rd then 2nd, after substitution time won a 10 point race plus 4 points for its Tote odds, won a 25 point race, ran 4th, slipped up and, finally, nowhere (out of the first four)
7, 8 etc. = a horse's age in red is, at the start of the season, outside of the preferred age range indicated in column 2
C = Chaser   CH = Champion Hurdle type    col = column    d = dead    eas = on easy list    Fr = French trainer    H  = Hurdler   inj = injured    Ir = Irish Trainer    m = mare    NC = Novice Chaser    NH  = Novice Hurdler   nr = non-runner in targetted first two bonus races     out = reportedly out for rest of season or remainder of competition    PP = Paddy Power Gold Cup    red = all remarks in red are a definite negative for the competition, though not always a bar to inclusion in col 3    SC = Staying Chaser    Sel = selection    SH = Staying Hurdler    sm = small    yo = years old at start of season    trnr = trainer		   
       
  The 2nd-best rule-compliant line from the system's shortlist in col 3
above, was as follows...		  
         
   Type of Horse        Name Pts   
  2m Hurdler (2 per line) •  Brave Inca 78  
  •  Detroit City 65  
  QM, Arkle, R&SA Chase types
or Wildcard 1 (2 per line)		 •  Kauto Star 170  
  •  Voy Por Ustedes 79  
  Paddy Power sel (1 per line) •  Nickname (Sub) 65  
    Sub'd out - Kandjar d'Allier 22  
  3m+ Chasers or Wildcard 2
(3 per line)		 •  State Of Play 61  
  •  Wildcard 2 (eg Denman 64 or Taranis 49 or In Compliance 29 or Iktitaf 25 etc) 64  
  •  Monet's Garden 54  
  Misc (NH, NC, SH, SC
or Wildcard 3) (2 per line)		 •  Mighty Man 62  
  •  Wildcard 3 (eg My Way De Solzen 69 or Beef or Salmon 60 or Gungadu 29 etc) 69  
      System's 2nd-best line (i.e.
excluding Exotic Dancer)		  = 789  
      Real winner's score  = 731  

  Comments in running (last one first) Back to top   
     14.4.07 - 790 points - At the end of the competition, the system's best-possible line was on 790 (using Exotic Dancer as the sub as opposed to Nickname shown in the summary above).  This score got within 10 points of smashing the 800-points barrier.  The line was 59 points clear of the real leader - and was only one of at least 90 different lines in the shortlist each of which totalled more points than the actual winner of the competition.  A remarkable performance.     
    

12.4.07 - 783 points - After the first day of Aintree, there was a best-possible line from the shortlist which was 76 points ahead of the real leader, and only 17 points off reaching 800 points.

     
    

11.4.07 - Aintree Preview - The system went into Aintree with 15 different horses from the shortlist expected to run in as many as 8 different races.  That was a fitting finalé to what, by now, had already turned out to be a second-successive record-breaking season for the system.

     
    

24.3.07 - 780 points - The best possible line from the shortlist now has a 79 point lead over the real leader.  The current total of 780 points has smashed the system's previous record score of 702 points set last season.  Can Aintree push it through the 800 barrier?!

     
    

19.3.07 - 763 points - The large number of different horses to score points in this year's shortlist (26 to date) is great news for lines with wildcards in them.  The best such rule-compliant line would currently be on 763 points, pushing it 66 points clear of the real leader.  There are three dozen lines in the shortlist which would currently be between 1 point and 66 points ahead of the real leader.  All but one of them having at least one wildcard.

     
     16.3.07 - Post-Cheltenham - The best possible line from the shortlist, without wildcards in it, finished Cheltenham with a 1 point lead over the real leader, on 698 points to 697 points.     
     15.3.07 - 648 points - The best possible line from the shortlist, without wildcards in it, has a lead of 1 point over the real leader's total of 647.     
     14.3.07 - 638 points - After day two, and wins by Denman and Voy Por Ustedes, our system now has a great many more lines that could feature somewhere in the top ten and higher.  One possible line from the shortlist has a lead of 20 points over the real leader's total of 618.     
     13.3.07 - 628 points - There is a line from our shortlist which has extended its lead to 48 points' over the new real leader's score of 580.     
     12.3.07 - Cheltenham Preview - Of the 34 horses in this year's shortlist, 27 are probable runners in 11 of the 24 races, including the likely favourite for 8 of those 11 races.     
     25.2.07 - 587 points - The last fifteen days have been magic for the shortlist, with 15 runners producing no less than 12 scoring horses.  Many lines from the shortlist could now be somewhere in the top ten of the competition's leader board, with one of them currently having a 30 point lead over the real leader's score of 557.     
     17.2.07 - 567 points - Another super Saturday with five runners in three races giving all three winners.   26 different horses from the shortlist have now scored points.  That impressive strength in depth means there are literally hundreds of lines from the shortlist currently capable of being somewhere on the competition's leader board.  One of those lines is currently 17 points clear of the real leader.     
     10.2.07 - 565 points - A sensational Saturday for the shortlist with five scoring horses from only six runners.  There is a system line currently on 565, which is 15 points clear of the new real leader.  That is by no means the only great line.  In fact, there are more than two dozen rule-compliant lines currently that could fill all ten top places on the leader board!  But nobody managed to put even one of them together for real, sadly.     
     4.2.07 - 488 points - There was a line in the shortlist with a total of 488 points, good enough to be tying for joint first place with the real leader.  But there were at least six other lines scoring more than 488 points!     
     29.1.07 - 472 points - A quarter of the horses in our shortlist ran in the past weekend's trials for Cheltenham, so the prospects were excellent.  But, with only one winner, a 12 point second, and seven losers, the results were not enough to stop one person's obscure line coming from miles behind and overtaking not only all ten then real leaders but even our system's best possible line, which would now be pushed down to 2nd place by 1 point.     
    
31.12.06 - 295 points in December 2006 - On the right is a rule-compliant line from our shortlist that attained enough points to have won the December £10,000 prize.  The shortlist provided ten winners in December.  Nine of those winners fell into place in the shortlist's five subgroups exactly as required, so immediately lent themselves to being permed together in one line under the system's perming instructions.  Any line containing those nine horses was guaranteed at least second place for the month.  The final selection for the line was very likely to have been the 21st horse down the shortlist.  That 21st horse was, in fact, a vacant slot.  Against the vacant slot in question (aka Wildcard 2), we specifically stated that that particular wildcard was to be linked with lines containing Kauto Star - which the line right did.  The rule on wildcards (higher up this page, just after the shortlist) says a vacant slot can be filled by any horse from anywhere in the shortlist - provided that horse has not yet been used in that particular line.  If anybody had taken Paul Nicholls' novice chaser Natal as Wildcard 2 in the dream line right, that would have added the prize-clinching extra ten points.  Sadly, nobody (ourselves included), put even the nine main horses together in one line - let alone the tenth.  But the chance was there for the taking.  Especially when considering it was a far more feasible line for somebody to have put together than the unlikely freak line that did actually win the £10K for real (with three points fewer!).  Very frustrating!

That is the second time the system has seen a £10K monthly prize go begging.  The previous time was two years ago, also in December.  If you want to look, click the link next and wait for the page to load fully - it should then jump you down the page to the relevant place.  See Dec 2004		    December scorers...
•  Brave Inca 54
•  Detroit City 25
•  Kauto Star 75
•  Voy Por Ustedes 25
•  Kandjar d'Allier 22
•  Wildcard 2 (if Natal) 10
•  In Compliance 29
•  Star De Mohaison 15
•  Black Jack Ketchum 15
•  Mighty Man 25
  System's Dec total  = 295
  Real winner's total  = 292
Back to Review
    
     29.12.06 - 418 points - Our system provided the chance of multiple lines capable of leading the competition from week two right through to Boxing Day, whereupon the best possible line was knocked back to second place by a single point behind the real leader.  But today's win by Ireland's battling hurdler Brave Inca means the system ends the year with a restored possible lead of 9 points.  A great run.  However, the further 12 points grasped by Exotic Dancer for second place in the King George (raising its total to 105 points, unprecedented for a Paddy Power winning outsider) looks dangerously like the proverbial straw that will break the camel's back as far as the second half of the competition is concerned.     
    
26.12.06 - 393 points - Boxing Day defeats for two novice favourites, Kicks For Free and Glenfinn Captain, left the shortlist's best-possible line only 17 points ahead of the real leader.  And left a few dozen other possible lines still an agonising 7 points off the real lead for the month.
    
    
18.12.06 - 343 points - Three winners from three runners on 16.12.06 enabled the system's best possible line to establish a 29 point lead over the real leader.
    
In addition, more than 80 rule-compliant lines from the shortlist were all on 185 points for the month.  That was only 7 points behind the real leader for the December £10K prize.  Unfortunately, there seemed no real prospect of making up the 7 point deficit - but it was exciting nevertheless.
     11.12.06 - 323 points - A 10lb hike in Exotic Dancer's rating did not prevent it dealing another deadly blow two days ago (it's now on 93 points).  However, there were still at least eight different lines from our shortlist capable of scoring up to 9 points more than the real leader's 314 points, and many dozens more that were capable of scoring more than the 296 points then required for tenth place.     
     9.12.06 (2) - 319 points - The lead of the system's best possible line was whittled down to only 5 points after the new, real leader had three winners today.     
     9.12.06 - 289 points - We failed to notice the win two days ago by minnow Natal (+10 pts) out in the sticks.  This meant the system's two best possible lines had surged to 36 points ahead of the real leader.  We have had some lovely emails from followers who are on the leader board for real, including one from a gentleman who had just sneaked into joint seventh place, for a couple of days, thanks to Natal.  Well done all concerned.     
     6.12.06 - 279 points - A nerve-wracking win by Brave Inca (+29 points) meant there were now at least 16 different lines from the shortlist capable of a score of 279 points - all 26 points clear of the real leader's score.  Not one of the top 19 lists on the then leader board had included the champion hurdler, so nobody made up any ground on the system.     
     2.12.06 - 275 points - Kauto Star (+25 points) raised the system's possible lead over the real leader to 22 points.  At least seven different lines from the shortlist were capable of a score of 275 points.     
     1.12.06 - 250 points - After the first three weeks of the competition, the system's best two possible lines would be in first and third place on the leader board..     
     28.11.06 - 235 points - The Hennessy was won by State Of Play (+61 points), producing a new leader of the competition on 223 points.  One of our system's possible lines rose to 220 points (worth 2nd place).  The day after the Hennessy, a further 15 points, from the novice Denman, pushed the same line's total to 235 (i.e. 12 points ahead of the real leader).  In addition, more than ten different lines from our shortlist had more points than the score of the person in tenth place who was then on 191 points.  This has actually been a more solid start for the system than in its record-breaking run last NH season.  So, with most of our bonus-race big guns yet to appear,  some of our followers could be in for a great run between now and Cheltenham next March.     
     24.11.06 - 159 points - The first Leader Board appeared in today's Racing Post.  This was the first time the Post had managed to publish the leaders so early (i.e. before the Hennessy, the second bonus race, had been run).  We had realised our shortlist was off to a fine start - of the 33 horses, over half had run already (17 to be precise) and over half of those (9 to be precise) had clocked up good points.  Nevertheless, because the shortlist missed out on the Paddy Power winner, it was quite a surprise to find the best two possible lines were actually good enough to be in the top ten (in 6th and 7th places).  However, as usual, it was already patently obvious that neither we nor any of our followers had managed to put the relevant horses together in a line because there was nobody with either 159 or 157 points on that first Leader Board!     
 
Footnotes
a)  Paddy Power Gold Cup Rule  (race previously called the Thomas Pink GC and, before that, the Mackeson GC) - This is the first of the 50-point bonus races in the competition.  You must try hard, within reason, to get the winner of this race in a good proportion of your lines, otherwise you will be toiling behind from the very start.  If the actual winner of the PPGC proves to be a popular fancy, and you do not have it in any of your lines, you could be in very deep trouble from the off.  On the other hand, if the race is won by an outsider, missing it will not normally matter in the long run because the people who have that kind of horse in their lines will have lines that lack quality in depth and will, eventually, be overtaken by all the shrewder entries.  For that reason, concentrate on only the first four in the very latest available ante-post betting for the race - and do just those, and one only in each line.  If you only fancy two or three of the four market leaders, then just cover those, instead of all four, but still with only one in any single line.  The reason for never doing more than one Paddy Power runner in each line is because the extra 12 points for second place in this bonus race are normally worthless as these middle-of-the-road 2½m handicappers, especially when re-handicapped after the race, usually lack the potential to win much else, let alone a 50-point bonus race.

The historical emphasis for only putting one PP GC selection in each line might be less necessary in practice from 2005-6 when a new Substitutions rule was introduced.  We envisage this could make it tactically reasonable to put two PP GC runners in some lines  - with a view to dumping one, or possibly both of them, come January.  However, you would need to be very confident of one of the two actually winning the race because having two Paddy Power losers in a single line would be £10 down the drain straight away!    Back to top of shortlist
b)  Wildcard Rule for filling Vacant Slots - If, in the final shortlist above, there are less than the maximum of 36 named horses in column 3, this will leave an equal number of vacant slots in one or more of the subgroups in column 3.  Having fewer than 36 horses means, on the plus side, the base horses will be easier to perm more tightly but, on the minus side, there will be fewer actual runners - so there is a trade-off.  So, whilst vacancies are basically good, there will never be too many of them and, some years, there may not be any.

When there is a vacant slot within any subgroup, it must still be regarded as an actual selection, albeit an unnamed selection initially, within that subgroup i.e. it must not be ignored.  The vacant slot should be included in a proportion of your lines, weighted in accordance with its position in the subgroup (i.e. if selection 1 in any subgroup is shown as a vacant slot, it should go in, say, twice as many lines than if selection 4 were a vacant slot).

A vacancy slot in any line can be filled by any horse that takes your fancy from anywhere in column 3 - provided that horse has not yet been used in that particular line.  You do not have to stick to the same horse to fill the same vacant slot when the same slot appears in more than one of your lines - you can vary the horses that fill vacancies as much as you like.  This flexibility means a vacant slot effectively works like a wildcard and, as such, can be a very powerful tool for fine-tuning and strengthening individual lines - so be sure to follow this rule properly and precisely, exactly as described herein.

One use for a vacant slot might be to load up some of your lines with an extra staying chaser from the King George / Gold Cup / Hennessy sections when there is a vacant slot from some other section in some of your lines.  Another use might be for putting a second Paddy Power Gold Cup selection in a few lines, though only if you are totally confident one or other of them will actually win the race (as you cannot afford to have two Paddy Power losers in the same line).

Sometimes a vacancy may appear in the shortlist because one horse is fancied for two different sections of the shortlist.  For instance, in the 2006-7 season, Kauto Star was, somewhat ludicrously, the ante-post favourite for both the King George and the Queen Mother chases.  As the horse could only appear once in the shortlist, we opted to put it in the Queen Mum's subgroup and the other occurrence, i.e. in the King George subgroup, was denoted as a vacancy.  When that kind of thing happens, it is advisable to treat that particular vacant slot as a linked vacancy i.e. only available to your lines which also contain the doubled-up horse (e.g. Kauto Star) because, if allotting that vacant slot to lines not containing the doubled-up horse, you would run the risk of having a disproportionate number of lines without the projected favourite for the two key races concerned.    Back to top of shortlist
c)  Substitutions Rule - A substitutions rule was first introduced to the competition for the 2005-6 Jumps season.  The idea was that, if you had any promising lines containing horses which had, unfortunately, died or been injured, you could, at least, change them half way through the competition, in January.  In that initial season, the concession was only available to entries submitted by telephone or the internet, not to the traditional hardcore of postal entries who, therefore, had no hope of winning that season.  Due to protests, a level playing field was restored for the following season (2006-7), with postal entries also being able to make substitutions.  The substitutions rule permits up to two horses to be changed, in any lines, at a cost of £5 per selection per line, during the second week in January.  If, at that time, you have one or more highly-promising lines in your entry that are being held back by a couple of crocks, this rule will allow you to dump them and revitalise the line(s) just for the sake of an extra tenner for each relevant line.  Although the original purpose of the rule was to provide an opportunity to change horses if they became injured or died, a bigger benefit was that any star names that were rumoured not likely to be running before the New Year could safely be left out in favour of other horses more likely to clock up some early points, leaving the dodgy stars to be brought in later if the omens were better in January.  A prime example of this, in 2006-7, was top chaser Kicking King who, sadly, would miss the Boxing Day King George bonus race.  Several others had dodgy prospects of running before the New Year, including Well Chief.  Being able to leave such horses out of initial calculations was the biggest benefit of the new rule.  One thing to possibly bear in mind, when considering intentional tactical substitutions, as just described, is the additional cost risk.  It will actually cost £5 per horse per line so it follows that people who take the extra bit of time initially to submit all their lines as individual lines will stand to lose less under the new rule than those people who opt for the easier (online only) option of banker perms such as a "5 bankers permed with any five from X number of others" type of entry, as they would have to pay to substitute into their 'useless' lines as well as their good lines.

Two other valuable, unexpected lessons were learned from the first season that substitutions were permitted.  Which were that, by January, it had become glaringly obvious everybody would be throwing out the same few unwanted horses, and everybody would want to be bringing in the same few new horses.  What this meant, for most people lower down the leader board, was there was no point in them bothering to make substitutions because it would still be impossible for them to make up any real ground.  Many people, in that first year, obviously never thought that through because they poured a crazy £25,000 down the drain in an exercise in total futility.  Some people did see the hopelessness of it all, and took a chance by making riskier substitutions, like outsiders for the Gold Cup or Grand National - but that was a miserable failure as well.

So, if in January, you are down the leader board or, worse still, not on the leader board at all, and you can summise the horses you want to substitute in will, basically, be the same ones as many of the people above you, you may as well forget it and save your money.  In 2006-7, even though the choices were not as clear cut as to which to throw out or bring in, the story was basically the same.  For instance, not one of the then top eleven leaders had The Listener in their lists - so one can just imagine many people thinking they'd possibly cracked it by bringing that lesser-light in.  Unfortunately for them, however, the leaders were not caught napping because six of them also brought The Listener in, including the first four on the leader board.  Even we'd done the same thing in our posted list at the time.  So, what looked like a shrewd substitution was, in fact, just another complete waste of money for virtually everybody lower down the leader board as they would not be able to make up any significant ground on the hierarchy with it.

When the overall prize is a lost cause, what we would recommend is that you forget it and, instead, scrutinise your lines for the best two which, with the aid of two substitutions to each of them, will contain ten expected runners at the Cheltenham Festival.  Use the long-range anti-post markets as your guide to probable runners.  These two lines could then provide you with a possible chance of lifting the Cheltenham £10,000 prize.  That way, for the cost of just a couple of tenners, you can keep the excitement and anticipation going all the way through to Cheltenham even if you have had to pass up on the overall prize for this year.  Attempting to win the Cheltenham £10K is by no means an impossible ask.  One year we nearly did it for real, finishing just 1 point behind the actual winner.  Another year, again for real, we went into Cheltenham with ten actual runners in one line, including eight which were the likely favourite for their respective races.  That was in the early (easier) days of the Jumps competition when just five winners out of the ten horses would probably have been enough to give us the ten grand.  But how many of those eight favourites actually won?  It's something that has haunted us ever since.  Not one.  Seriously - all eight were beaten.  That was a sobering lesson about overblown favourites at the Cheltenham Festival which we have never forgotten!

To aim your couple of choice lines at the Cheltenham prize, use your substitutes to give each line seven expected runners in the four bonus races (split 2, 2, 2 and 1), plus one in, say, the Arkle, the SunAlliance and the 2m-5f Ryanair.  That way, you could land seven winners plus three 12-point seconds.  If that lot came up, and it didn't win you the £10K, we will lend you the gun to put yourself out of your misery!

If you intend to make your substitutions by internet, leave yourself plenty of time.  The first time we did it, it took us nearly 30 minutes online just to fathom out how to put two subs in the first line!  Our best advice would be to do a practice run a couple of days before the deadline so you will know how the process works when you come to do it for real.

You need to be very flexible as to how to use our substitutes in relation to your own, real lines.  We are obviously not able to see what is in other people's actual lines, so please be very selective as to how you make use of our amendments.  The substitutes will be marked in bold in column 3.  If you used our shortlist for your original entry, and intend to make substitutions to any of your lines, please appreciate that you can substitute a ditched horse with any horse from the same group or section in the shortlist that is not already used in that particular line - you are not, repeat not obligated to choose the bold one(s) we have introduced if there are more-suitable alternatives available to you from the same section.  Also remember, if you remove the same two horses from, say, four lines, you do not have to bring the same two new horses into all four lines.  You can use as many different horses as you like.  In this instance, any number from two up to eight different horses if you wanted.  So do be flexible, imaginative and ambitious when substituting.

When looking through the shortlist in early January, please keep in mind that all horses' ages, including those of proposed substitutes, will still be shown with their ages as they were at the start of the competition (so as to remain relatable to the 'preferred ages' shown in column 2), and not as they truly are in January (i.e. one year older than shown).

Finally, do remain realistic about your lines' chances.  Do not waste time and money making substitutions to any lines that would still have no real chance of getting into contention for the overall prize or the Cheltenham £10K prize.  There is always another year to try again.  Also, do not write down the changes you would have made if you don't actually make them.  If they came up tops, that would be like winning the football pools on the week your wife forgot to post the coupon!    Back to top of shortlist
d)  3m+ Chasers Rule - The 3m+ Chaser group (section 6-8) is where you load up each of your lines with at least three, quality, 3m+ chasers.  You can put four or even five 3m chasers in some lines if there are any 'Vacant Slots' in any other subgroups within the shortlist.  Half of the ten 50-point bonus races are for these staying chasers so it has often paid to weight your entries in favour of them.    Back to top of shortlist
e)  Inclusion / Exclusion Rule - Horses under consideration are usually put in column 4 initially, pending possible promotion to the actual shortlist in column 3.  However, a horse can only be moved from column 4 to column 3 if there is an available empty space in the corresponding subgroup in col 3.  If there is no unfilled space in col 3, an existing horse in col 3 must first be removed from col 3  (to col 4) before a replacement horse can be moved from col 4 to col 3.  This stringent, systematic approach helps to concentrate the mind on keeping the quality in col 3 very high and the quantity reasonably low at all times.  Many horses starting in col 4 can never make it to col 3 because of the system's quantity limits in each subgroup, and the overall limit of 36 horses maximum.  Probable reasons, ultimately, for horses being excluded, other than sheer lack of room, are usually because of one or more of the following:-  i) getting too old for their preferred distance, ii) small trainer, iii) fitness doubt or, iv) unlikely to clock up 70+ points all told (which has to be the theoretical potential of each and every horse that gets into col 3).    Back to top of shortlist
f)  Totesport Trophy Rule (race previously called the Tote Gold Trophy) - Although a 50-point bonus race, it has never specifically been targeted in the system.  The problem is that nobody knows, pre-competition, what is likely to run in this mid-February handicap hurdle race and, even if they did, they still wouldn't have a clue what would win it.  The race is sponsored by the Tote, who jointly administer the Ten To Follow competition, which explains why the race carries bonus points that it does not relatively deserve.  The race rarely used to have any influence on the final outcome of the overall competition.  However, that historical irrelevance could change as from 2005-6 because, starting from then, substitutions could be brought into entries in January - which is but a month before this particular race, so anticipating the likely, fancied runners might become feasible.    Back to top of shortlist
g)  Grand National Rule - Although the Grand National is a 50-point bonus race on the clinching day of the competition, we stopped targeting the race in the system as of the 2002-3 season.  Experience had shown that i) the ante-post market leaders, pre-competition, that always looked like they should win the race between them, never did so, ii) because of that, the eventual result of the National rarely had a bearing on the outcome of the competition, iii) on the only two occasions the competition had been decided on the outcome of the Grand National (including our own team's biggest win), neither of the winners had put the horses concerned in their entries as Grand National hopes, and, finally, iv) there is always a fair chance that one or other of the selections we put in the Hennessy / King George / Gold Cup section will eventually emerge, unexpectedly, as a much livelier Grand National hope, on the day, than anything we can attempt to pick at the start of the competition (though they have never won it either!).  The bottom group in the shortlist used to be for the Grand National hopes, but is now dedicated to miscellaneous selections that do not easily fit into the other categories.  The historical irrelevance of the Grand National might change as of the 2005-6 competition because, for the first time, tactical substitutions could be brought into entries in January.  Being after the Hennessey and Welsh Grand National races, this means much firmer pointers to the Grand National proper might be available.    Back to top of shortlist
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   Brief disclaimer:  Every effort has been made to provide accurate and helpful guidance.  However, no liability can be accepted by Capital Ratings nor by any other party or person involved herewith in the event of any erroneous or ultimately mistaken or misleading information.  The system may be used only on that understanding.  As with all gambling systems, past success does not guarantee future success.