2005-6 Jumps TTF

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The Racing Section

by Capital Ratings

05-06

reserved

System for the Tote Ten To Follow : 2005-6 Jumps

Oct 2005: Welcome to the 8th time our free system for the Tote Racing Post Ten To Follow competition has appeared here online.

Our objective is to give anyone picking their own personal lines from our final shortlist a serious chance of being the next big winner.

That could certainly have been the case in the past. In six of our previous seven online showings, the system gained enough points to have finished, in chronological order, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 0, 1st, 4th, & 11th (with a monthly prize), and to have netted over £675,000 in prize-money.

Final shortlist posted here on 9-11-05 at 7pm

View FINAL performance as of 10.4.06

Review of 2005-6 (posted 11.4.06) - The Jumps competition is now over for another season and it was super to see our system bouncing back after the relatively modest total possible winnings in the preceding three NH seasons of only £45,820. In fact, Capital Ratings now have the dubious distinction of being the first ever "paper millionaires" on the internet, because the accumulated possible winnings from the system, in the eight seasons it has been appearing free online, now amount to more than £1,153,000. This past season was a stunning return to form as the shortlist contained multiple rule-compliant lines that led from start to finish, at one stage had an unbelievable 95 point lead over the real leader, was never headed, finished with a tally of 702 points, a new record score for the Jumps, and, at the death, was still 49 points clear of the real leader. Nor was it a case of there being just a single, fluke, potential winning line. There were, literally, enough different high-scoring lines in the shortlist to have filled all ten winning places on the final leader board. In fact, there was not even just the ten - there were so

many dozens of different lines that exceeded the real winner's total of 653 points that we haven't actually been able to work out the exact number. As for the myriad of lesser lines that could have finished somewhere on the full leader board (no mean achievement in itself), there were many hundreds.

We won't be doing the 2006 Flat season, for the third time in a row, for the reasons documented elsewhere (click the 'TTF Guide' tab above if you want to know more). However, we will be back next October for another crack at the Jumps, and hope to see you all then. Thanks to everybody who took the trouble to email us during the season. Apologies to the few who failed to get a reply, but some of our responses were bounced back to us (so, not our fault, possibly due to their ISP's or PC's spam filters). Anyway, it's time now for us to take a nice long summer break. So, see you later.

Key - a key to abbreviations appears after the shortlist.

Sctn

Categories
(Type of Jumper)

SHORTLIST (this col) - 34 named horses

blue = best ten sels

Bold red = substituted into shortlist More on subs

[ / ] = results in comp before/after Jan subs' window

Others considered but not used

Col 2

Col 3

Col 4

1.

Sels l & 2

2m Hurdlers - Chmpn Hdl types.

4-6yo preferred.

Perming (Nov 05): From this group of four, take any 2 per line:-

Substitutes (Jan 06): Out of this group Harchibald 25 pts [16/1 injd, out]

1) 11-1 Hardy Eustace S 8 Ir [ex Harchibald = 25 / L, 30/1 blood bad, LL]
2) Wildcard 1 Rule
3) 3F1- Brave Inca 7 Ir [29 L 25 / 50 50]
4) 431- Arcalis 5 Johnson [25 / PL]

~~Feathard Lady m [1, 11/1 lm / 24/1 out]~~, ~~Lingo [1 / 4/2 dead]~~, Essex [2 / ], United 4 m, sm trnr (CR) [ / 29/1 still injd, L]

2.

Sels 3 & 4

2m Chasers - Qn Mother Chase types.

5-8yo preferred.

From this section of ten, take any 2 per line:-

Substituted out of this section ~~Rathgar Beau~~ (Tel) 0 pts [out]

1) 112- Moscow Flyer 11 Ir [LL / L]
2) 12-2 Kauto Star 5 Nicholls [25 / F]
3) 21-3 Ashley Brook 7 sm trnr [L bad knee / 13/3 still injd]
4) 1U-2 Fota Island S 9 Ir [ / 15 12 L]

Central House [112 / L W LR], Watson Lake [1 / L W],

Novice Chasers - 2m Arkle Trophy types.

5-8yo preferred.

5)   -102 Accordion Etoile 6 Ir [15 / LFL]
6)   12-1 Racing Demon 5 Knight [15 / 10 L]
7)   40-1 Cerium 4 Nicholls [12 L / 12 LP]

Dont Be Shy 4 Pipe [ / 15 LL], Wild Passion 5 Ir [22 / L]

Novice Chasers - 3m R&SA Chase types.
5-9yo preferred.

8) 3P-1 Celtic Son 6 Pipe (Tel) [LLL / LL]
9) 114- Missed That 6 Ir [L 10 36 / 25 L]
10) 21-1 Monet's Garden 7 Richards [ / 10 L]

The Listener 6 Ir [111 / F], ~~Over The Creek 6 Pipe [22/12 out]~~

3.

Sel 5

2½m Hcap Chsrs - Paddy Power Gold Cup types.

5-9yo preferred.

For this section, use the first four in the latest possible ante-post betting for the PP GC. Put one only in each line:- (see Rule a))

1) 13-1 Monkerhostin 8 Hobbs [12 LL 12 / LL]
2) FPP- Our Vic 7 Pipe [54 P / 25 L]
3) 24-1 Lacdoudal 6 Hobbs [L 19 LL / LLL]
4) 41-1 Brooklyn Breeze 8 Lungo [LL / ]

Impek 9 [13 / LP], Fondmort [4B1 / L W P], 112- Isio 9 (LDP, sub) [ / ] Kandjar D'Allier [3PLL / 10], Redemption 10yo Twiston-D (Tel) [F004 / 0U0L]

4.

Sels 6, 7 & 8

3¼m+ Hcap Chsrs - Hennessy Gold Cup types.

5-10yo preferred.

From this section of twelve, take 3 per line:- (see Rule d))

Substituted out of this section ~~Trabolgan~~ 57, ~~Kicking King~~ 50 & ~~Red Devil Robert~~ 0 [all three out for duration]

1) 121- ~~King Harald 7 sm trnr [LU / U 2/3 out~~]
2) 332- Cornish Rebel 8 Nichols [LL / LP]
3) 102- Juveigneur 8 Henderson [F injd knee / LLF]
4) 001 Therealbandit S 8 Pipe [ / P]

Take The Stand 9 Bowen [02 / ULL], Fundamentalist [L / FFL]

3m Chasers - King George VI Chase types.

5-10yo preferred.

5)   2F-1 Joaaci S5 Pipe (MW, sub) [ / BFLP]
6)   42-2 Kingscliff 8 Alner [32 P / LL]
7)   21-1 War Of Attrition Sub 6 Ir [20 LL / 57]
8)   111- Lord Of Illusion 8 George [P02 / LP]

-31F Ladalko 6 ( LDP, sub) [ / L], ~~Thisthatandtother [3F 3/1 out]~~, ~~Vodka Bleu 6 Pipe [3/1 out]~~,

3m+ Chasers - Cheltenham Gold Cup types (3m 2½f).
5-10yo preferred.

9) 104 Hedgehunter S 9 Ir (EB, sub) [ / 12 12 12]
10) 12-1 Ollie Magern 7 Twiston-D [L fin lm, L / LLL]
11) 2P-0 Beef or Salmon Sub 9 Ir [L 25 / 50 LU]
12) 4F1- ~~Lord Transcend 8 Johnson [L / P fin lm, 22/1 out~~]

L'Ami [2L / 12 LL]

5.

Sels 9 & 10

Misc section

NovH pref 4-6yo.
SH pref 5-7yo.
SC pref 6-11yo.

From this group of six, take any 2 per line:-

Substituted out of this group ~~Inglis Drever~~ 15 pts [out]

1) 12-2 Baracouda 10 SH Fr [23/12 setback. Ex Inglis Drever = 15 / L 25/3 rtrd]
2) -111 Iris's Gift 8 O'Neill [LF / U]
3) 01-1 Justified 6 Ir (Tel) [20 U 10 / L 31/1 virus]
4) 311- ~~Rhinestone Cowboy 9 SH O'Neill [ / 24/2 out~~]
5) 3-FL Solerina ~~8 m sm 2½m H Ir [15 25 20 L / 12 14/2 to breed~~]
6) Wildcard 2 Rule

No Refuge 5 SH Johnson [1 / LL], Asian Maze Ir (MW, sub) [ / 24/1 setback, LF 29], Back In Front 8 SH Ir [21 / U], Clan Royal SC [L / 3]

Key to abbreviations used in the above table:-
(CR) or (CR, sub) = initials (various) of persons credited with contributing horses for consideration at the start of the comp or later as substitutes
[15 L / 12] = a horse's results and points in the competition, since being added to the list, before / after the January substitution window / = separator of results before/after substitution time
7, 8 etc. = a horse's age, if in red, was, at the start of the season, outside of the preferred age range indicated in column 2
C = Chaser CH = Champion Hurdle type col = column d = dead eas = on easy list Fr = French trainer H = Hurdler injd = injured Ir = Irish Trainer m = mare NC = Novice Chaser NH = Novice Hurdler out = reportedly out of action for duration or remainder of competition PP = Paddy Power Gold Cup red = all remarks in red are a definite negative for the competition, though not always a bar to inclusion in col 3 (S) = Substituted in, used only in the Best Ten summary table below SC = Staying Chaser Sel = selection SH = Staying Hurdler sm = small yo = years old at start of season trnr = trainer

The system's best possible line from the shortlist in column 3
above, was as follows...

Type of Horse		Name	Pts

2m Hurdlers (2 per line)	•	Brave Inca	154
2m Hurdlers (2 per line)	•	Arcalis	25

QM, Arkle, R&SA Chase types (2 per line)	•	Kauto Star	25
QM, Arkle, R&SA Chase types (2 per line)	•	Missed That	71

Paddy Power sel (1 per line)	•	Our Vic	79

3m+ Chasers (3 per line)	•	Kingscliff	32
3m+ Chasers (3 per line)	•	War Of Attrition (Sub)	57
		Sub'd out - Trabolgan	57
	•	Beef or Salmon (Sub)	50
		Sub'd out - Kicking King	50

Misc (SH, SC, NH etc.) (2 per line)	•	Justified	30
Misc (SH, SC, NH etc.) (2 per line)	•	Solerina	72

		System's best total	= 702
		Real winner's score	= 653

Comments in running (last one first)

9.4.06 - 702 pts That was the final score for one of the system's leading possible lines. It represented a 49 point margin over the real leader's winning total of 653.

17.3.06 - 702 pts Post Cheltenham analysis:- Our system took its followers into Cheltenham perfectly poised, with no less than 25 horses down to run, in eight different races, and with a best-possible line having a healthy 61 point cushion over the then real leader's real score. The post-Cheltenham best-line's tally of 702 points was a huge new record score for the system at this stage of the competition. It also retained a 49 point margin over the real leader's new total of 653. In fact, 702 is not actually the system's best permutation - there are multiple lines even higher than that (as high as 721 points, in fact) if including the wildcard combinations - which are part and parcel of the system. But it's all academic now, since it is obvious, from the new leader board, that neither we nor any of our followers managed to put the right horses together in even a plain, straightforward line of ten, let alone one with wildcards in it! View the wildcard rule (out of interest).

19.2.06 - 607 pts Through the 600 points' barrier already - the earliest this has ever happened. Last week, we had another email, this time from a reader who has been hovering in the second fifty on the leader board, and said "I would be overall leader if I had stuck resolutely to your principles, however choosing one horse not in your list, instead of Trabolgan, has hampered me."

12.2.06 - 582 pts Today's tally of three scorers from three runners means the system's best line has extended its lead over the real leader to 95 points. And there are now so many different possible permutations from the shortlist that would all be higher than the real leader's 487 points that it's become impossible to count them all before your brain gives in!

11.2.06 - 520 pts A fan of our site emailed to tell us he is on the leader board despite entering only one list of ten. That is truly extraordinary judgement - we think we should ask him to pick our lists for us from the shortlist next season!!!

10.2.06 - 520 pts We were very pleased to get an e-mail from a follower who, despite being a postal entry (i.e. unable to make substitutions), had, nevertheless, been enjoying a thrilling spell in third place on the real leader board.

29.1.06 - 520 pts The system's best line extended its lead over the real leader to an eyewatering 83 points.

23.1.06 - 445 pts This total meant there were many dozens of different possible lines that exceeded the real leader's total of 387 points.

29.12.05 - 423 pts The first time one of our team won a prize in this competition (a Jumps' first prize), all it took was a little over 400 points to do it. But this season, when still only Christmas, there were about a dozen different, rule-compliant lines from our shortlist which had surpassed the 400 mark.

27.12.05 - 398 pts This score represented a 51 point lead over the real leader who was then on 347 points. A good number of other possible lines from the shortlist were between 347 and 398.

4.12.05 - 317 pts After just three weeks of the competition, that was the staggering number of points racked up by the best ten rule-compliant horses in our shorlist.

28.11.05 - 279 pts The first two weeks of the competition had seen a blinding start for our shortlist. 279 points represented a huge margin over the then real leader's total of 227 points. Realistically, though, there is no possibility that any of our followers could have put the corresponding ten horses together in the same line. But the chance was there. And, with countless dozens of different lines from the shortlist all scoring sufficient points to appear somewhere on the leader board, a few of our followers could be seeing their names in the limelight when the first leader board is printed in the Racing Post tomorrow.

25.11.05 - On this day, the Racing Post announced that the first Leader Board was now viewable on the Tote's website. There were two joint leaders each on 182 points. That was some 15 points less than several possible lines from our shortlist.

Footnotes

a)	Paddy Power Gold Cup (PPGC). Previously called the Thomas Pink and, before that, the Mackeson, this race comes right at the beginning of the competition, and is the first of the all-important 50-point bonus races. You must try very hard, but within reason, to get the winner of this race in a good proportion of your lines, otherwise you will be toiling behind from the very start. In fact, if the actual winner of the PPGC proves to be a popular fancy, and you do not have it in any of your lines, you could well be in very deep trouble from the off. For that reason, concentrate on only the first four in the very latest available ante-post betting for the race - and do just those, and one only in each line. If you only fancy two or three of the four market leaders, then just cover those, instead of all four, but still with only one in any single line. The reason for never doing more than one Paddy Power runner in each line is because the extra 12 points for second place in this bonus race are normally worthless as these middle-of-the-road 2½m handicappers, especially when re-handicapped after the race, usually lack the potential to win much else, let alone a 50-point bonus race.

	The historical emphasis for only putting one PPGC selection in each line might be less necessary in practice from 2005-6 when a new substitutions' rule was introduced. We envisage this could make it tactically reasonable to put two PPGC runners in some lines - with a view to dumping one, or even both of them, come January.

	Occasionally, the PPGC is inevitably won by an outsider. However, missing out on that sort of winner does not normally matter in the long run because those people who have that kind of selection in their lines will, eventually, be overtaken by those with better quality, less speculative entries. The only notable exception to this philosophy was in 2004-5 when outsider Celestial Gold not only won the PPGC but then went on to do the unthinkable by also winning the second 50-point bonus race, the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup. A killer tally of 111 points which meant, from as early as week 2, that all lines without that turn-up in them were out of the running to win the top prize that year. The following year, 2005-6, was thankfully back to normal and complied fully with the system rule. Back to 2½m Chasers' section in shortlist

Wildcard If, in the final shortlist, in any year, there are fewer than 36 named horses, this will leave a corresponding number of vacant slots in one or more of the subgroups in column 3. Any such vacant slot will be denoted by use of the term Wildcard 1, Wildcard 2 etc. A wildcard is simply an 'unnamed selection' (temporarily) and it must always be counted as a valid and necessary selection (albeit unnamed) within its subgroup. A wildcard in the shortlist must not, therefore, be ignored when forming your permed lines of ten as it is there to add power and flexibility to an entry. A wildcard should be weighted in your permed lines in accordance with its position in the subgroup (i.e. if selection 1 in any subgroup is shown as a wildcard, it should go in more lines than if selection 4 were a wildcard). In each instance that an unnamed wildcard then appears in one of your permed lines, the wildcard should be replaced with any selection that takes your fancy from anywhere in the shortlist - provided that selection has not yet been used in that particular line. A sound use of wildcards might, for example, be to load up some of the affected lines with additional staying chasers from the Hennessey (or Hennessy) / King George / Gold Cup section of the shortlist, so that a few of your lines will then have four, or even five staying chasers in them. Back to 'Wildcard' in shortlist

c)	Substitutions For the 2005-6 season, a new rule was introduced permitting up to two horses per line to be substituted, on the internet, during the second week in January, at a cost of £5 per horse. This was a huge and unfair advantage for internet and telephone entrants [over postal entrants, for that season only]. This new rule allows you to dump two crocks from a line and revitalise the line just for the sake of an extra tenner. Many people have realised this rule could also be applied in a tactical sense. For instance, for the 2005-6 season, it was strongly rumoured that the Champion Hurdle ante-post favourite, Hardy Eustace, would not make its seasonal reappearance before the end of January. So, a tactical entry might have been one in which Hardy Eustace was left out of every line, in favour of others that could knock up some early points, with a view to replacing one with Hardy Eustace later on, during the January substitution window. The main thing to bear in mind, however, if considering tactical substitutions, is the additional cost risk. Because of this, it is far better, costwise, to avoid submitting permutation-type entries (e.g. "5 bankers permed with any five from 'n' number of others") in favour of submitting all lines as separate lines of ten.

	Since the rules allow two horses to be discarded from each line of ten horses, this equates to seven horses (7.2 to be exact) that may be discarded from a shortlist of 36 horses. The replacements, when brought into our shortlist, will be marked in bold in column 3. If you have used our shortlist as the basis for your original entry, it is important to remember, at substitution's time, that a discarded horse can be substituted by ANY horse from the same section of the shortlist that is not already used in that particular line - you are not obligated to choose one of the newly-introduced ones (in bold) if there is already a more-preferable alternative in the same section. Finally, be realistic about your lines' chances. Do not waste time and money making substitutions if the lines would still have no real chance of getting into contention. Better to save that money over to the following season, and do a few extra lines then. Back to top of shortlist

3m+ Chasers The 3m+ Chaser group (section 6-8) is where you load up each of your lines with at least three quality 3m+ chasers. You can put four or even five 3m chasers in some lines via the "Wildcards" option. Half of the ten 50-point bonus races are for these staying chasers so it has often paid to weight your entries in favour of them. Back to 3m+ Chasers' section

e)	Horses under consideration During the initial period that a shortlist is being prepared, horses under consideration are usually put in column 4, pending possible promotion to the actual shortlist in column 3. A horse can be moved to col 3 from col 4 only if there is an available space for it in the corresponding subgroup in col 3. If the relevant spaces in col 3 are all filled, a horse (or Wildcard option, if any) must be removed from col 3 before the replacement horse can be moved from col 4 to col 3. This stringent systematic approach helps to concentrate the mind on keeping the quality in col 3 very high and the quantity reasonably low. Many horses starting in col 4 can never make it to col 3 because of the quantity limits in each subgroup, and the overall limit of 36 horses maximum. Probable reasons, ultimately, for horses being excluded, other than sheer lack of room, are usually because of one or more of the following:- i) getting too old for their preferred distance, ii) small trainer, iii) fitness doubt or, iv) unlikely to clock up 70+ points all told (which has to be the theoretical expectancy for every horse that gets into col 3).

	After the competition starts, column 4 will be used to list horses from which a few substitutions will be nominated for use during the substitutions' window in January (see Rule c) above).

Totesport Trophy (previously called the Tote Gold Trophy) - Although a 50-point bonus race, it has never specifically been targeted in the system. The problem is that nobody knows, pre-competition, what is likely to run in this mid-February handicap hurdle race and, even if they did, they still wouldn't have a clue what would win it. The race is sponsored by the Tote, who jointly administer the Ten To Follow competition, which explains why the race carries bonus points that it does not relatively deserve. The race has rarely had any influence on the final outcome of the competition (apart from February's £10,000 monthly prize). However, the historical irrelevance of this race could change from 2005-6 because, for the first time, tactical substitutions can be brought into entries in January 2006 - which is but a month before this particular race, by which time likely, fancied runners might be identifiable.

Grand National Although the Grand National is a 50-point bonus race on the clinching day of the competition, we stopped targeting the race in the system as of the 2002-3 season. Experience had shown that i) the ante-post market leaders, pre-competition, that always looked like they should win the race between them, never did so, ii) because of that, the eventual result of the National rarely had a bearing on the outcome of the competition, iii) on the only two occasions the competition had been decided on the outcome of the Grand National (including our own team's biggest win), neither time had the two horses concerned been put in the entries as Grand National hopes and, finally, iv) there is always a fair chance that one or other of the selections we put in the Hennessy / King George / Gold Cup section will eventually emerge, unexpectedly, as a much livelier Grand National hope, on the day, than anything we can attempt to pick at the start of the competition (though they have never won it either!). The bottom group in the shortlist used to be for Grand National hopes, but is now dedicated to miscellaneous selections that do not easily fit into the other categories. The historical irrelevance of the Grand National might change from 2005-6 because, for the first time, tactical substitutions can be brought into entries in January 2006 - which is much closer to the race.