2004-5 Jumps TTF

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The Racing Section

by Capital Ratings

04-05

reserved

System for the Tote Ten To Follow : 2004-5 Jumps

Oct 2004: Welcome to the 7th time our free system for the Tote Racing Post Ten To Follow competition has appeared here online.

We like to believe that anyone picking their own personal lines solely from our final shortlist could well be the next big winner. This could certainly have been the case in the past.

In five of its previous six online showings, the system gained enough points those six times to have finished, in chronological order, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 0, 1st, 4th, and to have netted over £665,000 in prize-money. Flat placings (2001, 2 & 3) were best at 1, 2, 1. Jumps' placings were 1, 0, 4.

Final shortlist posted here 8.11.04

View FINAL performance as of 10.4.05

Review of 2004-5 - In the previous season (2003-4), a change to the competition rules reduced the total number of jumpers from which to choose from 1,000 down to 500. This, we predicted, would make it considerably harder to win because it meant all the more obvious horses would be concentrated together in a greater number of the entries. And so it proved.

In fact, at the start of this season just passed, we had said here, if, because of that rule change in the previous season, the competition were to prove just as tight again this season, or worse, we would probably call it a day with our online offerings for the Jumps (our system having already been forced out of the Flat competition the year before by another rule change there). Well, it was hard, and we did do worse, in a sense. The system suffered a terrible start, due to lots of unexpected early losers - and missing out on one horse that did the ludicrous thing of landing a Paddy Power-Hennessy double. However, by mid-December, there was a line that could have just crept on to the bottom of the leaderboard and that kicked off a phenomenal comeback

which, eventually, resulted in countless lines from the shortlist being good enough to feature somewhere on the leaderboard throughout the rest of the season. Still, it was not until the Cheltenham Festival that a line could have crept into the top twenty. And, with only two days left, something which had looked impossible just a few weeks earlier, there was a line good enough to have been in the top ten. And that resulted in one of the most exciting finishes ever for the system as, on the last day, it was certain to provide a line good enough to have taken 1st or 2nd place, or drop out of the top ten altogether - nothing in between! Okay, so it was nowhere in the end (11th). But the system had done enough to show it was as sound as ever basically, despite our worries over the rule change. And it had, at least, provided three lines back in December that were all good enough to have won, for the first time ever, a £10K monthly bonus prize. More on that >>.

All in all, this was a tremendously exciting and promising performance once more. We will definitely be here, online again, next season!

Nov 2004: The rules for compiling our shortlist for the Ten To Follow competition are designed specifically to keep one's mind continually focused on the type, quality, quantity and proportions of horses to be included. Crucial to the system is the unique 'Categories' section (column 2 below) as this imposes a strict limit on the type and number of horses which can be listed in each category. Once a category is full in column 3, no further horse can go in it unless an existing horse is taken out (i.e. a judgement has to be made that it is potentially inferior to the new one). This stringent approach is a clever key

to keeping the quality very high yet the quantity reasonably low in our seasonal shortlists.

When compiling your lines from the shortlist, class and quality count for everything. But allow for the fact that this competition is always like a kiss of death for half of every year's assumed ten top horses!

There are no changes to the format that performed so well for us last Jumps' season. So, good luck once again to everybody, from all at Capital Ratings.

Key - a key to abbreviations appears after the shortlist.

Blue highlight = best ten selections


Sctn	Categories (Type of Jumper)	SHORTLIST (this col) - 35 named horses [ ] = results in comp.	Others considered but not used [Footnote (e) refers]
	Col 2	Col 3	Col 4

1. Sels 1 & 2	2m Hurdlers - CH types 4-6yo preferred	From this group of four, take any 2 per line:- 1) 21-1 Hardy Eustace 7 Ir [LLL 20 54] 2) 22-2 Rooster Booster 10 Hobbs [LLLLLL] 3) 10-1 Back In Front 7 Ir [L 25 L] 4) 1-12 Brave Inca 6 Ir [LL 12 LF]	-131 Macs Joy 5 Ir [L 32 50 LL] 340- Intersky Falcon 7 O'Neill [LLL]

2. Sels 3 & 4	2m Chasers - Qn Mother Chase types 5-8yo preferred	From this section of ten, take any 2 per line:- 1) 11-1 Azertyuiop 7 Nicholls [LL 25 L] 2) Wildcard 1 Rule 3) 111- Well Chief 5 Pipe [LLF 29 L 12] 4) -B12 Kicking King 6 Ir [25 50 54]	1F1- Tidour 8 Webber [ ] 232- Impek 8 H Knight [LLL]
	2m Novice Chasers - Arkle Trophy types 5-8yo preferred	5) -111 Cloone River 8 Ir resting [ ] 6) 1U1 My Will 4 Nicholls nds soft (CR) [LL 19 15 L] 7) 3-41 Royal Alphabet 6 Ir [ ]	0-1F Sporazene 5 Nicholls [ ] 02-1 War Of Attrition 5 Ir (CR) [10 LL]
	3m+ Novice Chasers - R&SA Chase types 5-9yo preferred	8) 11-1 ~~Fundamntlst~~ 6 Twi-D [20 LU out 1/05] 9) -121 Comply Or Die 5 Pipe [12 F L] 10) -111 Ollie Magern 6 Twiston-D [L 12 25 U 15 L out 3/05]	10-1 Cornish Rebel 7 Nichols nds soft [15 12 LL]

3. Sel 5	2½m Hcp Chsrs - Paddy Power Gold Cup runners 5-9yo preferred	For this group of four, use the first four in the latest possible PP ante-post betting, put 1 only in each line (see Footnote a)):- 1) 10-1 Monkerhostin 7 Hobbs [LL 29 L] 2) F22- Thisthatandtother 8 Nicholls [12 LL 29 L] 3) 00-1 Farmer Jack 8 Hobbs [FLFL 27 54 d 3/05] 4) 112- Tikram 7 Moore [LLLLLL]	34F- Fondmort 8 Hendrsn [LLLLL]

4. Sels 6, 7 & 8	3m+ Hcp Chasers - Hennessy Gold Cup types. 5-10yo preferred	From this section of twelve, take any 3 per line (see Footnote d)):- 1) 1F0- Therealbandit 7 Pipe [L 24 LLLLL] 2) 0F-0 Joly Bey 7 Gifford ill [LL 14 LL] 3) 101- Lord Transcend 7 Hwd Jhnsn [LF 25] 4) 112 Take The Stand 8 Bowen [LSLL 12 U]	F1F- Simply Supreme 7 Smith [ ] 02-1 Royal Auclair 7 Nichols [LLL 12]
	3m+ Chasers - King George VI Chase types 5-10yo preferred	5) 1-11 Moscow Flyer 10 Ir [25 15 50 25] 6) 113- Our Vic 6 Pipe [FLL] 7) 112- Isio 8 Henderson [ ] 8) 112- Kingscliff 7 Ir eas [12]	1-1F Lord Sam 9 sm trnr [LL] 130- Keen Leader 8 O'Neill nds soft [L ] 43-0 Hand Inn Hand 8 Daly [LLLLL] 110- Calling Brave 8 Henderson [LL]
	3m+ Chasers - Cheltenham Gold Cup types 5-10yo preferred	9) 211- ~~Best Mate~~ 9 Knight [25 L out 3/05] 10) -101 Beef or Salmon 8 Ir [L 25 12 P] 11) 111- Strong Flow 7 Nicholls eas [LLL] 12) 02-2 Sir Rembrant 8 Ir [LLLLP]	3-24 Harbour Pilot 10 Ir nds soft [L out 1/05] 11-2 Iris's Gift 7 O'Neill eas [L]

5. Sels 9 & 10	Others NH pref 4-6yo SH pref 5-7yo SC pref 6-11yo	From this miscellaneous group of six, take any 2 per line:- 1) 112- Baracouda 9 SH Fr [15 25 12] 2) 31-1 ~~Rhinestone Cowboy~~ 8 SH O'Neill [out] 3) 11-1 Grey Abbey 10 SC Hwd Jhnsn [25 L 25] 4) 121 Solerina 7 m sm 2½ H Ir (CR) [25 15 LLF] 5) 3U-1 Mariah Rollins 6 m 2½ NC Ir (CR) [L 29 L] 6) 2-10 Rigmarole 6 Nicholls (Ern Tel) [LLLL]	112- ~~Royal Rosa~~ 5 SH Johnson (SM) [LL out 3/05] 1-L Dunnet Head 5 2½ NH Lungo (CR) [ ] 11-U Paddy The Piper 7 2½ NC Lungo (CR) [10 L] 111 Al Eile 4 Ir 4 sm trnr (Tel) [LLLL 36]

Key to abbreviations used in the above shortlist:-
( ) as in (CR), (SM), (Ern) etc. = the initials, or short name, of a person credited with contributing a specific horse for consideration [ ] as in [L 25 P] = a horse's results after the start of the competition 7, 8 etc. = a horse's age in red is, at start of season, outside of preferred age range indicated in col 2 CH = Champion Hurdle type col = column d = dead eas = on easy list Fr = French trainer H = Hurdler inj = injured Ir = Irish Trainer m = mare NC = Novice Chaser NH = Novice Hurdler out = out for rest of season PP = Paddy Power Gold Cup red = all remarks in red are a definite negative for the competition, though not always a bar to inclusion in col 3 SC = Staying Chaser Sel = selection SH = Staying Hurdler sm = small yo = years old at start of season trnr = trainer

Best-possible rule-compliant line, from Col 3 above, is as follows...

Type of Horse

Name

Pts

2m hurdler (2 per line)

•

Hardy Eustace

•

Back In Front

QM, Arkle, R&SA Chase types
or wildcard (2 per line)

•

Kicking King

129

•

Ollie Magern

Paddy Power sel (1 per line)

•

Farmer Jack

3m+ chasers (3 per line)

•

Lord Transcend

•

Moscow Flyer

115

•

Beef or Salmon

Misc (SH, SC, NH etc.)
(2 per line)

•

Baracouda

•

Grey Abbey

Final total (worth 11th)

= 640

Real winner's score

= 684

Comments in running (last one first)

10.4.05 - 640 pts We knew we were dead as far back as last November, after Celestial Gold doubled-up in the Hennessy. But, at the end of the day, there were literally dozens of different lines from our shortlist that were good enough to have finished somewhere on the leader board. The best of these, on 640 points, was worth 11th place - just one point out of the money.

8.4.05 - 640 pts Our shortlist's best-possible line would now be in tenth place on the leader board.

7.4.05 - 615 pts A welcome, overdue second win by Grey Abbey meant our shortlist's best-possible line moved up to 615 pts, equivalent to eleventh place on the leader board.

19.3.05 - 605 pts Our shortlist enjoyed a strong Cheltenham, giving three of the four bonus race winners, three bonus race seconds, and another 29 point winner. The 223 points accrued over the four days was just one point off being on the £10,000 leader board. This powerful performance also moved the system's best-possible line into an unexpected top-twenty position on the overall leader board - being only seven (probably unobtainable) points off being in the top ten!

16.3.05 - 539 pts After only two days of Cheltenham, it was already evident the £10,000 prize had once again eluded us. But the bonus points earned by Hardy Eustace and Moscow Flyer meant three possible lines from our shortlist had crept high enough to be in the top thirty on the leader board. But that is probably our lot because our horses are too well covered by the leaders. Still, it's been good to have got almost within striking distance considering where we were at after the Hennessy last November.

14.3.05 - 435 pts We go into Cheltenham with at least nine different lines from our shortlist good enough to be on the overall leader board. The best of those is only 35 points off being in the top ten. About 25 of our original 35 horses are due to run at the Festival, which is a very good achievement. The horses are spread over about nine different races, so the potential is enormous if all the right ones were to prove good enough on the day!

25.1.05 - The system had its moment of glory in December (see below). There will be nothing else to write about now until March when (along with thousands of others!), we hope to be in the running for more small pickings in the shape of Cheltenham's £10,000 bonus prize.

31.12.04 - 282 points in December 2004 - On the right is one of three possible, rule-compliant lines from our shortlist that attained enough points to have won the December £10,000 prize. This is the first time our system has produced the ammunition for a monthly win, as opposed to its five bigger achievements to date in the competition overall - to which the system is actually geared. That, and the Cheltenham £10,000 prize. So, being well out of contention for this season's overall prize, this possibility of winning ten grand was a very welcome consolation for the system.

The clincher was undoubtedly the bottom horse, Mariah Rollins, as no one else in contention had it. Ironically, it was not the type of horse we would normally have looked at either. We have one of our online followers and quality contributors, CR, to thank for making us consider including that one.

December scorers...


•	Hardy Eustace	0
•	Back In Front	25

•	Kicking King	75
•	Ollie Magern	25

•	Monkerhostin	29

•	The Real Bandit	24
•	Moscow Flyer	25
•	Beef or Salmon	25

•	Baracouda	25
•	Mariah Rollins	29

	System's Dec points	= 282
	Actual winner	= 276

Back to Review

28.12.04 - There are now six different lines in the shortlist which would be ahead of everybody else for the December £10,000 prize. Three of those lines are each worth 282 points, a promising 29 points clear of the actual leader's new total of 253 points.

27.12.04 - 320 pts Three good winners on Boxing Day meant our shortlist's best-possible line would be up to 31st place on the overall leader board. There would also be a line on 269 for the month, an incredible 39 points clear of anybody else, with just two more key races to go.

21.12.04 - 253 pts It's hard to believe, after such a bad start, but there is now a line from our shortlist that would be half way up the leader board, and another that would be joint top with two others on 168 for the December monthly prize of £10,000.

17.12.04 - Silly we know, but there's actually a line in our shortlist that would be joint top with seven others on 143 for the December monthly prize of £10,000. So, maybe one of our shortlist-users is enjoying a bit of unexpected excitement from this season's competition after all?

13.12.04 - 228 pts Against all the odds, a possible line from our shortlist has somehow scraped its way on to the bottom of the leader board to be published in tomorrow's Racing Post, and would be joint top in the running for the December monthly prize, which is no mean feat in this competition.

02.12.04 - The first TTF Leader Board will be in the Racing Post tomorrow. It will show the leader is on 228 already! You would need 208 to be in the top ten. You would need 176 just to get on the Leader Board. It certainly does look like curtains for anybody, like us, without Celestial Gold.

28.11.04 - After Celestial Gold pulls off a remarkable Paddy Power-Hennessy double, all lines without that horse are almost certainly dead lines. That means we here are completely dead! Our only hope now of winning anything, like most other people already, is going to be the £10,000 prize for most points scored at the Cheltenham Festival in 3½ months' time.

25.11.04 - We won't be troubling the leaders this season, unfortunately. With the competition barely two weeks old, our shortlist has suffered a startling abundance of losers. If there's one thing we've learned over the years, too many losers spell doom because they dilute all your actual lines. To do any good in this competition, you need horses that win, and keep on winning, but we're now stuck with too many that unexpectedly look the opposite type. Don't expect many updates this time - bad news does not make happy reading!

Footnotes

Paddy Power Gold Cup (previously called the Thomas Pink and, before that, the Mackeson). This is the first of the 50-point bonus races in the competition. You must try hard, within reason, to get the winner of this race in a good proportion of your lines, otherwise you will be toiling behind from the very start. If the actual winner of the PPGC proves to be a popular fancy, and you do not have it in any of your lines, you could be in very deep trouble from the off. On the other hand, if the race is won by an outsider, missing it will not normally matter in the long run because those people who have that kind of horse in their lines will have lines that lack quality in depth and will, eventually, be overtaken by all the shrewder entries. For that reason, concentrate on only the first four in the very latest available ante-post betting for the race - and do just those, and one only in each line. If you only fancy two or three of the four market leaders, then just cover those, instead of all four, but still with only one in any single line. The reason for never doing more than one Paddy Power runner in each line is because the extra 12 points for second place in this bonus race are normally worthless as these middle-of-the-road 2½m handicappers, especially when re-handicapped after the race, usually lack the potential to win much else, let alone a 50-point bonus race.

Vacant Slots If, in the final shortlist, there are fewer than 36 named horses, this will leave a corresponding number of vacant slots in one or more of the subgroups in column 3. A vacant slot must still be counted as a selection within its subgroup for permutation purposes, and must be incorporated proportionately when compiling the lines of ten for the competition entry. A resulting vacant slot in an entry line can be filled by any selection from either the same category or from any other category, provided that selection has not yet been used in that line. Therefore, a vacant slot effectively acts like a wildcard selection - and might be shown as such in the shortlist.

This year, there is one vacant slot, as a result of Moscow Flyer being well-fancied in two different categories (Queen Mother and King George) but can only appear in the list once. We've put it in the King George category, where it might be better suited by its age - thereby leaving a vacant slot (shown as a 'Wildcard') in the Queen Mother category. [In the event, Moscow stayed at 2m, and took the QM Chase. Our strategy meant the points still counted.] Back to 'Wildcard' in shortlist

c)	Wildcards See rule b) "Vacant Slots", immediately above, for information about wildcards.

3m+ Chasers The 3m+ Chaser group (section 6-8) is where you load up your lines with at least three quality 3m+ chasers. You can put four or even five 3m chasers in some lines via the "Wildcards" option. Half of the ten 50-point bonus races are for these staying chasers so it has often paid to weight your entries in favour of them.

Exclusions Horses under consideration are usually put in column 4 initially, pending possible promotion to the actual shortlist in column 3. A horse can be moved to col 3 from col 4 only if there is an available space for it in the corresponding subgroup in col 3. If the relevant spaces in col 3 are all filled, a horse must be removed from col 3 (to col 4) before the replacement horse can be moved from col 4 to col 3. This stringent systematic approach helps to concentrate the mind on keeping the quality in col 3 very high and the quantity reasonably low. Many horses starting in col 4 can never make it to col 3 because of the quantity limits in each subgroup, and the overall limit of 36 horses maximum. Probable reasons, ultimately, for horses being excluded, other than sheer lack of room, are usually because of one or more of the following:- i) getting too old for their preferred distance, ii) small trainer, iii) fitness doubt or, iv) unlikely to clock up 70+ points all told (which has to be the theoretical expectancy for every horse that gets into col 3).

Tote Gold Trophy Although the Tote Gold Trophy is a 50-point bonus race, it has never specifically been targeted in the system. The problem is that nobody knows, pre-competition, what is likely to run in this winter-time handicap hurdle race and, even if they did, they still wouldn't have a clue what would win it. The race is sponsored by the Tote, who jointly administer the Ten To Follow competition, which explains why the race carries bonus points that it does not relatively deserve. The race rarely has any influence on the final outcome of the competition (apart from February's £10,000 monthly prize), and that situation will no doubt continue to prevail.

Grand National Although the Grand National is a 50-point bonus race on the clinching day of the competition, we stopped targeting the race in the system as of the 2002-3 season. Experience had shown that i) the ante-post market leaders, pre-competition, that always looked like they should win the race between them, never did so, ii) because of that, the eventual result of the National rarely had a bearing on the outcome of the competition, iii) on the only two occasions the competition had been decided on the outcome of the Grand National (including our own team's biggest win), neither time had the two horses concerned been put in the entries as Grand National hopes and, finally, iv) there is always a fair chance that one or other of the selections we put in the Hennessy / King George / Gold Cup section will eventually emerge, unexpectedly, as a much livelier Grand National hope, on the day, than anything we can attempt to pick at the start of the competition (though they have never won it either!). The bottom group in the shortlist, that used to be for Grand National hopes, is now dedicated to miscellaneous selections that do not easily fit into the other categories. A long-distance chaser could, of course, still be included in that bottom group if anything were to irresistibly stand out.