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   System for the Tote Ten To Follow : 2003 Flat   
   Apr 2003:  The Capital Ratings' free system for the Tote Ten To Follow competition comprises a carefully selected shortlist of horses, and rules for perming those horses.  This is the fifth season the method has been shared online (3rd on the Flat).  We have reduced the original list of horses provided by the Tote / Racing Post    from 500 down to just 33.  These horses are then to be permed over a dozen or so lines as allocated under columns 2 and 3 below and in accordance with the two footnotes entitled Wildcards and Structured Lines.  The performance of the system can be viewed by clicking the blue link above.   
 
   Final shortlist posted here 26.05.03    View FINAL performance   
 
   Addendum, Apr 2005 - The system rules used for the 2003 shortlist below, and the preceding two years, were designed specifically to take advantage of the later start    which then applied to the Flat competition.  The system was NOT suitable, not usable, when the competition reverted to an earlier start from 2004.   
 
   Key - a key to abbreviations appears after the shortlist.    Blue highlight = best ten selections   
Sctn Distance Categories Perm FINAL SHORTLIST (this col)  33 named horses
 Others considered but not used
  Col 2 Col 3 Col 4 Col 5

1.

Sels 1 & 2
Milers
Up to 8 sels rqd
Perm any 2 from the 8 in col 4 per line		 From each group in this col pick, per line, the No. of sels stated in col 3

1  12-1 Russian Rhythm 3f Stoute (Tel+Del) [50 25 12 L]
2  -122 Six Perfections 3f Bary Fr (T+D) [L 25 54]
3  4-11 Kalaman 3c Stoute (Chris+T+D) [12 LL]
4  3-13 Intercontinental 3c Fabre Fr (Del) [L]
5  41-2 Where Or When 4c Mills (Tel) smll trnr [LLLL]
6  11-2 Desert Deer 5h Johnston [L]
7  2-21 Firebreak 4c Suroor [LL]
8  1-31 Falbrav (as W/card 2) 5c Cumani [L 57 L 50 12 50 L]
 301- Nayyir 5g Butler been ill, smll trnr (Del) [L 27 L]
3-36 Monsieur Bond 3c Smart smll trnr (Bob) [L 10 L 10]
13-1 Trade Fair 3c Charlton (Bob) [15 L 12 L]
-101 Indian Haven 3c d'Arcy smll trnr [LL]
1-10 Khulood 3f Dunlop (Tel) [LLLL]
3-13 Olden Times 5h Dunlop [LLL]
11-4 Domedriver 5h Bary Fr [LLL]
4102 France 3c O'Brien [LLL]
1-43 Tout Seul 3c J-Houghton [LL]
1400 Tomahawk 3c O'Brien [L]

2.

Sel 3
1¼ milers
Up to 4 sels rqd
Perm any 1 from these 4 per line		 1  20-1 Hawk Wing 4c O'Brien [L lm ret 8/03]
2  421- Nayef 5h Tregonning (Tel) [54 12 LLL]
3  30-1 Grandera 5h Suroor (Tel) [LLL]
4  12-1 Moon Ballad 4c Suroor [LLLL]		 0-11 Magistretti 3c Callaghan (Tel) [L 12]
1-01 Lateen Sails 3c Suroor (Tel) [L 15]
0-01 Cassis 3f Noseda (Tel) [LLL, to US 8/03 L]
  13- Reach for the Moon 3f O'Brien (Tel)
11- Statue of Liberty 3c O'Brien (T+D) was injrd [LLLL]
0-50 Saturn 3c Bell (Tel) [L]
1-02 Highdown 4c Suroor [L]
3.

Sel 4		 Oaks
Up to 4 sels rqd		 Perm any 1 per line 1  1-01 Yesterday 3f O'Brien [12 LLLL]
2    2-1 Hi Dubai 3f Suroor [LLL]
3  01-5 Hanami 3f Toller [L 20 LL]
4  Vacant		 11-4 Soviet Song 3f Fanshawe Ir [12 LL]; 1-0 Echoes In Eternity 3f Suroor; 1-10 Mezzo Soprano 3f Suroor [L 16 32 L]; 41- Time Honoured 3f Stoute; inj; 1- Waldmark 3f Stoute [L]
4.
Sels 5 & 6		 Derby
Up to 4 sels rqd		 Perm any 2 per line 1  1-11 Refuse To Bend 3c Weld [L 15 LL]
2  21-3 Brian Boru 3c O'Brien [LL 50 L]
3  1-21 Alamshar 3c Oxx [L 54 57 LL]
4  11-3 Alberto Giacometti 3c O'Brien [L]
 13-0 Hold That Tiger 3c O'Brien (Tel) [LLL]
11-0 New South Wales 3c Suroor needs give [L]

5.

Sels 7 & 8
1½ milers
Up to 8 sels rqd
Perm any 2 from these 8 per line		 1  112- Sulamani 4c Suroor [L 12 25 25 L]
2  4-11 Mamool 4c Suroor [LL 29 25]
3  1-11 Dalakhani 3c Fr [25 12 20 50]
4  00-1 Rakti (as W/card 1) 4c Jarvis [12 61]
6  01-1 Kris Kin 3c Stoute (Tel) [57 LLL]
7  114- Vinnie Row 5h Weld (Tel) [12 25 L]
5  -112 Warrsan 5h Brittain [29 LL]
8  103- Islington 4f Stoute [LL inj 21/7 25 L 25]		 131- High Chaparral 4c O'Brien, inj, delay (Chris) [20 54 L 31], -101 Black Sam Bellamy 4c O'Brien pcmkr (Del) [LLLL], 24-1 Gamut 4c Stoute (Tel) [L 10 L], 13-4 Bandari 4c Johnston (Tel) [LLL], 11-2 Ange Gabriel 5h Libaud Fr (Chris) [20 25 20 L], 211- Next Desert 4c Ger (Chris) [LLL], 312- Leadership 4h Suroor [L 12 29 L], 11-2 Big Bad Bob 3c Dunlop 1½m+ [L], 0-20 Pugin 5h Suroor [L]

6.

Sels 9 & 10
Stayers, Sprinters or Wildcards
(8 sels rqd)
Perm any 2 from these 8 per line		 2  11-1 Airwave 3f Spr Candy (Chris+Del) [12 LLL]
4  1-43 Bollin Eric 4c Styr Easterby (Tel) [LLL 15 L]
1  30-2 Zipping 4c Spr Collett Fr [LLLF]
3  11-0 Danehurst 5h Spr Prescott needs give [12 L]
5  22-1 Highest 4c Styr Suroor [LL]
6  0-21 Asian Heights 5h Wragg 1½m+ (Tel)
7 - Wildcard 1 (= Falbrav from Grp 1/2) *
8 - Wildcard 2 (= Rakti from Grp 7/8) *
211- Oasis Dream 3c Spr Gosden (Tel) [L 29 L 50 LL]
1-40 Crystal Castle 5g Hammond Fr (Del) [LL]
12-2 Captain Rio 4c Spr Nicholls [LL]
0-100 Red Carpet 5h Spr Bell



* For an explanation of "wildcards", see the footnote immediately below this table.
   Key to abbreviations used in the above shortlist:-
( ) as in (Tel), (Del) etc. = the initials, or short name, of a person credited with contributing a specific horse for consideration
[ ] as in [L 25 P] = a horse's results after the start of the competition
c = colt    col = column    d = dead    eas = on easy list    f = filly    Fr = French trainer    g = gelding    h = horse   inj = injured    Ir = Irish Trainer    m = mare    out = out for rest of season or duration of competition    red = any remarks in red are a definite negative for the competition, though not always a bar to inclusion    sel = selection    sm = small    trnr = trainer		   

   Best-possible line from the shortlist in col. 4 above   

   Type        Horse Pts   
  Milers (2 per line) •  Russian Rhythm 87  
  •  Six Perfections 79  
  1¼ mlr (1 per line) •  Nayef 66  
  Oaks sel (1 per line) •  Hanami 20  
  Derby sels (2 per line) •  Brian Boru 50  
  •  Alamshar 111  
  Middle Dist (2 per line) •  Sulamani 62  
  •  Dalakhani 107  
  Sprinter or Wildcard •  Wildcard 1 (if Falbrav) 169  
  Stayer or Wildcard •  Wildcard 2 (if Rakti) 73  
      System's best line  = 824  
      Real winner's score  = 820  

Comments in running (latest at top) Back to top
25.10.03 - 824 pts:  The system's best-possible line hung on to its virtual first place by just 4 points from the real winner's total of 820 points (he scored a massive 111 points at the final Breeder's Cup meeting).  That means the Flat version of our system, over the first three seasons it has appeared online, has supplied lines equating to the 1st, 2nd & 1st place prizes.
18.10.03 - 802 pts:  A line would be 62 points in front - and through the 800 point barrier for the first time in the history of the Flat competition.
5.10.03 - 783 pts:  A line would still be 43 points in front.
28.09.03 - 733 pts:  The system's best line stormed through the 700-point barrier, stretching its possible lead to 43 points in front of the real leader of the TTF on 690 points.
16.09.03 - 629 pts:  A flurry of results in Ireland and France over the weekend saw the system's best-possible line be worth 12 points more than the real leader's 617.
12.09.03 - 566 pts:  There was another new leader in the competition proper on 558 points, which was 6 points less than the system's best-possible line with 566.
22.08.03 - 554 pts:  After York's Ebor meeting, a new leader took over in the competition proper with a score of 542, but that was still 12 points behind the system's best-possible total of 554 points..
16.08.03 - 489 pts:  In the US's Arlington Million, ex-Brit horse Storming Home, but for swerving dangerously across the path of his main pursuers in the last few yards, would have been a decisive winner on merit.  However, the resultant, controversial promotion of Godolphin's Sulamani to 1st place moved the system's best-possible line in front of the real leader for the first time this season.
02.08.03 - 461 pts:  The system's best line was still worth 2nd place on the leader board, 24 points behind the leader, and 8 points ahead of the third place.
05.07.03 - 378 pts:  This score was worth 2nd place on the leader board.
29.06.03 - 321 pts:  70 weekend points would have meant 3rd place on the leader board for anyone managing to perm the relevant ten horses from the shortlist.
21.06.03 - 251 pts:  A quarter of the system's horses had scored points, giving a nice score of 251 points for any followers managing to perm the scorers in the same line.
18.06.03 - 201 pts:  After the second day of Royal Ascot, the system's best score of 201 points would have been worth a top three position on the competition's overall leader board.
Wildcards
Horses 9 and 10 in each line are picked from the bottom row, section 9/10, in the above shortlist.  This section allows you to have several combinations such as  (i) a sprinter plus a stayer in some lines,  (ii) a sprinter or a stayer plus one wildcard in some lines, and  (iii) two wildcards in the remaining lines.  A "wildcard" is any horse from the same group or any other group that is not already used in that particular line.  This flexible wildcard feature enables some lines to have in them, say, a third miler from section 1/2, or a second Oaks runner from section 4, or one or even two extra middle-distance horses from section 7/8 etc. etc.
This 'wildcard' strategy attempts to capitalise on the fact that it has often not been essential to the winning of the competition to have a sprinter in a line nor a stayer even.
Structured Lines
Season-after-season, the end results show that well-structured lines are the single most important ingredient to winning this competition.  The system ensures that all lines are well structured by adhering to the following strategy:-  (i) all selections are sorted into distance categories, as specified in column 2, before anything else,  (ii) the exact number of selections specified in column 3 are permed from each category for each line.  This strict discipline ensures that every single line is always soundly proportioned around the all-important bonus-point races.  Thus, having done all we possibly can ourselves to maximise our chances, it is then just a simple case of enjoying watching if the horses, trainers, jockeys - and all the other imponderables involved in racing, will allow our endeavours to succeed once again.
Knowledge Base
The compilation of the Capital Ratings' shortlist for the 2002 season benefitted from the combined knowledge and expertise of five people.  They were (i) Terry, a dual winner in the Jumps' competition of a total of over £212,000), (ii) Robert (Terry's brother), also a top-ten prize winner in the Jumps' competition and a National Hunt specialist, (iii) Peter, inventor of the Capital Ratings' handicapping system and other racing-systems, (iv) Dell, a betting shop settler and manager and, last but not least, (v) Len, former 'Man on the Spot' form expert of the Sporting Life newspaper, since retired.
Consequently, Capital Ratings has a good record for producing high quality shortlists.  However, there is still a final hurdle - the task of perming the best-scoring horses from each section all in the same line.  This is never easy because the mathematical odds against that happening are horrendously high, and the prohibitive cost per line is another major obstacle - especially since being doubled from £5 to £10 per line in 2002.  Nevertheless, we remain addicted enthusiasts and, consequently, enjoy sharing our experience with other TTF devotees.
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Disclaimer:  Every effort has been made to provide accurate and helpful guidance.  However, no liability can be accepted by Capital Ratings nor by any other party or person involved herewith in the event of any erroneous or ultimately mistaken or misleading information.  The above may be used only and purely on that understanding.  As with all gambling, the system's past success does not guarantee future success.