2003-4 Jumps Tote Ten To Follow Competition

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The Racing Section

by Capital Ratings

03-04

reserved

System for the Tote Ten To Follow : 2003-4 Jumps

Oct 2003: Welcome to our free system for the Tote Ten To Follow competition, now in its sixth season online. So far, this remarkable system has provided the possibility of four wins in the past five seasons, gaining enough points to have finished (latest last): 1st, 1st, 2nd, 0, 1st, and the potential to have netted a total of £630,000 in prize-money.

The system has two aspects. Firstly, the list of 500 eligible horses is pruned down by our team to a more managable shortlist of not more than 36 very select horses that are sub-divided into even smaller groups by type of race and distance. Secondly, horses from the shortlist are then permed (over a dozen or so lines in our own case) in accordance with specific rules that ensure every line entered is well-structured, and automatically geared to the all-important high-scoring

races. Choose shrewdly from our shortlist for your own entries and, who knows, maybe you could be the next winner.

The number of horses from which to initially choose was reduced for this season's Jumps' competition, for the first time, from 1,000 to 500, bringing the Jumps in line with the Flat. We anticipate, unfortunately, that this will make it a lot harder to win because the better horses are obviously going to be far more tightly concentrated together in a lot more of the entries. We have, therefore, made slight changes to the overall balance of the shortlist (like including fewer novice chasers) to try to offset any adverse effects of the change. However, the two three-time past winners on our team have actually said there is no chance the system can pull it off again. [4/04 - fortunately they were wrong!]

Final shortlist posted here 10.11.03

View FINAL performance

Key - a key to abbreviations appears after the shortlist.

Blue highlight = best ten selections


Sctn	Categories (Type of Jumper)	FINAL SHORTLIST (this col) 34 named horses [ ] = results in competition	Others considered for but not used in col 3 (see Footnote e))
	Col 2	Col 3	Col 4

1. Sels 1 & 2	2m Hurdlers - CH types 4-6yo preferred	From this group of four, take any 2 per line:- 1) 112- Rooster Booster 9 Hobbs CH [LL 15 12 12 L] 2) 113- Rhinestone Cowboy 7 O'Neill CH [15 L 15 L 25] 3) 10-1 Intersky Falcon 6 O'Neill CH [25 LLL] 4) 1-22 Back In Front 6 Ir CH [15 L]	31-1 Sporazene 4 Nicholls [LLL 32 L] 01-1 Hasty Prince 5 O'Neill [LLLLLL] 1/3- Davenport Millenium 7 Ir [LLLL] 012- Limerick Boy 5 Williams [L 27 LL]

2. Sels 3 & 4	2m Chasers - Qn Mother Chase types 5-8yo preferred	From this group of ten, take any 2 per line:- 1) 1-U1 Moscow Flyer 9 Ir [25 15 F 25] 2) 11-U Azertyuiop 6 Nicholls [LL 25 50] 3) F1-1 Le Roi Miguel 5 Nicholls (Ern) [LLLLF] 4) Wildcard 1 (see Footnote b))	P0-1 Flagship Uberalles 9 Hobbs [LLLL], 2-10 Cenkos 9 Nicholls [22 LLLL], 21-3 Native Upmnshp 10 Ir [L 15 LL], 00-0 Armaturk 6 Nicholls [LL 16 LL], F0-4 Tiutchef 10 Pipe [LLLL 29], 21-0 Seebald 8 Pipe [LLLLL], 23-2 Impek 7 H Knight, going 2½m [10 LLL]
	2m Nov Chsrs - Arkle Trophy types 5-8yo preferred	5) 202- Thisthatandtother 7 Nicholls [15 15 L 12 FL] 6) 01-1 Le Duc 4 Nicholls [LFLL 10 LL] 7) 112- Kicking King 5 Ir [LF 10 25 L]	111- Our Vic 5 Pipe [L 10 15 L], P-12 Puntal 7 Pipe [12 12 L 10 LUU], 144- Emotional Moment 6 Ir [L 10 F 15 LLLL], 133- Ned Kelly 7 Ir off 11 mths, 1-21 Our Armagddn 6 Guest (Tel) sm trnr [10 10 10 L 15 L 32 L]
	3m+ Nov Chsrs - R&SA Chase types 5-9yo preferred	8) 211- Xenophon 7 Ir [LFLL] 9) 110- Lord Transcend 6 Johnson [10 inj] 10) F-41 Pizarro 6 Ir [P 29 25 L]	103- Supreme Prince 6 Hobb [25 L] 113- Lord Sam 7 sm trnr [10 12 10] 22-2 Royal Emperor 7 Smith [10 F 15 L]

3. Sel 5	2½m Hcp Chsrs - Paddy Power Gold Cup runners 5-9yo preferred	For this group of four, use the first four in the latest possible ante-post betting, put 1 only in each line (see Footnote a)):- 1) 102- It Takes Time 9 Pipe [LLL] 2) 022- Fondmort 7 Hendrsn [54 LFLL] 3) 001- Poliantis 6 Nicholls [12] 4) 014- Young Spartacus 10 Daly [LL]	421- Master Tern 8 O'Neill [LLLLLL] 121- Irish Hussar 7 Hendrsn SC [LLL] 1111 Brother Joe 9 Hobbs (Tel & Bob) [F d] 1F2 Tarxien 9 Pipe [LFLLL] -101 Risk Accessor 8 Ir [FLLU]

4. Sels 6, 7 & 8	3m+ Hcp Chsrs - Hennessy Gold Cup types 5-10yo preferred	From this group of twelve, take any 3 per line (see Footnote d)):- 1) 110- Keen Leader 7 O'Neill [U 25 LL] 2) 111- One Knight 7 Hobbs (Stu) [F] 3) -11F Strong Flow 6 Nicholls [10 54 25 out] 4) -111 Swansea Bay 7 Bowen SC sm trnr [25 L]	20P- Chives 8 Knight [LL out] 132- Haut Cercy 8 Daly [LL] 110- Joss Naylor 8 O'Neill [L] 13-1 Jurancon 6 Pipe [L 32 F] 10-2 Hedgehunter 7 Ir [LL 29 F] 3-FL Barrow Drive 7 Ir 2½m chsr [12 LL] 31-L Ryalux 10 Crook (SC) sm trnr [L out]
	3m+ Chasers - King George VI Chase types 5-10yo preferred	5) P1-1 First Gold 10 Fr [LLL] 6) 1U2- Jair du Cochet 6 Fr [24 P 25 d] 7) 111- La Landiere 8 m, sm trnr [LLLL] 8) 44-F Valley Henry 8 Nicholls [LFPL]	120- Colonel Braxton 8 Ir [L] 100- Behrajan 8 Daly [LF] 114- Telemoss 9 Richards bbv, chpd knee [LL]
	3m+ Chasers - Cheltenham Gold Cup types 5-10yo preferred	9) 111- Best Mate 8 Knight [L 25 50] 10) 11F- Beef or Salmon 7 Ir [L 25 15 LL] 11) 132- Truckers Tavern 8 Ir nds soft [LLFLL] 12) 333- Harbour Pilot 8 Ir (Tel) [LFL]	03-0 Commanche Court 10 Ir [LLL] 2PF- Hussard Collonges 8 Beaumont [LLF]

5. Sels 9 & 10	Others (Novice Hurdlers, Staying Hurdlers etc., or wildcards) NH pref 4-6yo SH pref 5-7yo SC pref 6-11yo	From this group of six, take any 2 per line:- 1) 121- Iris's Gift 6 O'Neill SH [L 54 20] 2) 121- Baracouda 8 Fr SH [15 25 25 12] 3) 1- Chelsea Bridge 5 Knight NH [ ] 4) 121- Liberman 3 Pipe NH (Tel) [10 LL] 5) 111- Kingscliff 6 Ir SC [12 15 L inj] 6) Wildcard 2 (see Footnote b))	111- Solerina 6 Ir SH m sm [L 25 15 L 10 L] 0-12 Hardy Eustace 6 Ir SH (Ern) (LL 87) 002-Louisville 4 ir NH 1-12 Unleash Hobbs 4 NH 21-1 Lord Atterbury 7 Pipe SC (Stu)

Key to abbreviations used in the above shortlist:- CH = Champion Hurdle col = column d = dead Fr = French trainer inj = injured Ir = Irish Trainer m = mare NC = Novice Chaser NH = Novice Hurdler out = out for rest of season PP = Paddy Power Gold Cup SC = Staying Chaser Sel = selection SH = Staying Hurdler sm = small yo = years old at start of season trnr = trainer Bob, Tel etc. = specific contributors of indicated horses 7, 8 etc. = horse's age at start of season is outside preferred age range indicated in column 2

The best-possible rule-compliant line, from the shortlist in column 3 above, was as follows-

Type of Horse		Name	Pts

2m hurdlers (2 per line)	•	Rooster Booster	39
2m hurdlers (2 per line)	•	Rhinestone Cowboy	55

QM, Arkle or R&SA Chase types (2 per line)	•	Moscow Flyer	65
QM, Arkle or R&SA Chase types (2 per line)	•	Azertyuiop	75

Paddy Power sel (1 per line)	•	Fondmort	54

3m+ chasers (3 per line)	•	Strong Flow	89
	•	Jair du Cochet	49
	•	Best Mate	75

SH, SC, NH or wildcard (2 per line)	•	Iris's Gift	74
SH, SC, NH or wildcard (2 per line)	•	Baracouda	77

		Total (worth 4th, or £35,820)	= 650
		Actual winner's total	= 687

Comments in running (last one first)

3.4.04 - 650 pts: Aintree summary - Our shortlist went into Day 1 of the culminating 3-day Aintree meeting with its best-possible line only in 12th place, after previously dominating the lead from the start in November right through to the Cheltenham Festival. After Day 1 of Aintree, a line had clawed its way back to an equivalent of 10th place on the leader-board. After Day 2, it was back out to 20th, and looking grim. But, on the final day, there was a nice leap back up. In the end, we counted no less than twenty different rule-compliant lines from the shortlist that would have finished on the leader-board i.e. with a score of 603+. Hence, anybody using our system had a really excellent chance of getting their name in the paper this year. The best of those 20 lines would have finished 4th, which would have won the very nice sum of £35,820.

19.3.04 - 596 pts: Cheltenham Post-mortem - Our shortlist went into Cheltenham with three lines ahead of the real leader, the best one then being on 473 points. 19 horses from the shortlist ran in 9 different races, including the favourite in 6 of them (5 of which sadly, but not untypical for Cheltenham, let us down!). After Day 1, that meant we'd been knocked back to 3rd place. After Day 2, down to 9th place (first time of being out of the top five all season). After Day 3, out of the top ten even, and only in 12th place.

19.2.04 - 473 pts: In the past five weeks, over a dozen different lines from our shortlist were good enough to be in the top ten on the leader-board, with the best of those having variously gone from a possible 1st place down to 4th, then up to 2nd, back down to 3rd, back up to 1st (joint), then a clear 1st by 19 points and, finally, settling out 8 points in front of the real leader.

10.1.04 - 385 pts: More unsatisfactory results caused our shortlist's best-possible line to slip from 1st to 4th, trailing seven points behind the real leader who moved up to 392.

31.12.03 - 384 pts+: Jump racing ended 2003 with some diabolical Yuletide results in Britain and Ireland, but our system somehow emerged with at least six possible lines still ahead of the actual leader - though only by very slender 7 to 8 point margins.

19.12.03 - 335 pts+: Still a week to go to Christmas but, at this rate of knots, there looks a possibility that our system's leading line(s) could remain in front of the real leader all the way through to Cheltenham in March?

12.12.03 - 264 pts+: The first leader-board was published in the Racing Post 12.12.03. The overall leader was on 252 points. However, there were at least three possible lines from our shortlist, at the same state of play, that were from 12 to 25 points higher than that! We think this is the first time that the system, now in its sixth season, has led from day one.

Footnotes

Paddy Power Gold Cup (previously called the Thomas Pink GC and, before that, the Mackeson GC). This is the first of the 50 point-bonus races in the competition. You must try hard, within reason, to get the winner of this race in a good proportion of your lines, otherwise you will be toiling behind from the very start. If the actual winner of the PPGC proves to be a popular fancy, and you don't have it in any of your lines, you will be in very deep trouble from the off. On the other hand, if the race is won by an outsider, missing it will not normally matter in the long run because those who have that kind of horse will have lines that lack strength in depth and will, eventually, be overtaken by all the shrewder entries. For that reason, concentrate on only the first four in the very latest available ante-post betting for the race - and do just those, one only in each line. If you only fancy two or three of the four market leaders, then just cover those, instead of all four, but still with only one in any single line. The reason for only doing one Paddy Power runner in each line is because the extra 12 points for second place in this bonus race are normally worthless as the chasers in this race are only middle-of-the-road 2½m handicappers that, especially when rehandicapped after the race, usually lack the potential to win much else, let alone a 50-point bonus race.

Vacant Slots If, in the final shortlist, there are fewer than 36 named horses, this will leave a corresponding number of vacant slots in one or more of the subgroups in column 3. A vacant slot still counts as a selection within its subgroup for permutation purposes, and must be incorporated proportionately when compiling the lists of ten for the competition entry. However, a vacant slot in an entry line can be filled by any selection from either the same group or from any other group, provided that selection has not yet been used in that line. Therefore, a vacant slot effectively acts like a wildcard selection - and might be shown as such in the shortlist. [Apr 04: The final shortlist for 2003-4 had 34 named selections in it, so there were two vacant slots, or wildcards. Using the wildcard factor in 2003-4 nearly doubled the number of lines that could have finished on the full leader-board, but was not actually needed for the best line that would have finished 4th.]

c)	Wildcards See the "Vacant Slots" rule above for information about wildcards.

3m+ Chasers The 3m+ Chaser group (section 6-8) is where you load up your lines with at least three quality 3m+ chasers. You can put four or even five 3m chasers in some lines via the "Wildcards" option. Half of the ten 50-point bonus races are for these staying chasers so it often pays to weight your entries in favour of them.

Exclusions Horses under consideration are usually put in column 4 initially, pending possible promotion to the actual shortlist in column 3. A horse can be moved to col 3 from col 4 only if there is an available space for it in the corresponding subgroup in col 3. If the relevant spaces in col 3 are all filled, a horse must be removed from col 3 (to col 4) before the replacement horse can be moved from col 4 to col 3. This stringent systematic approach helps to concentrate the mind on keeping the quality in col 3 very high and the quantity reasonably low. Many horses starting in col 4 can never make it to col 3 because of the quantity limits in each subgroup and the overall limit of 36 horses maximum. Probable reasons, ultimately, for horses being excluded, other than sheer lack of room, are usually because of one or more of the following:- i) getting too old for their preferred distance, ii) small trainer, iii) fitness doubt or, iv) unlikely to clock up 70+ points all told (which has to be the theoretical expectancy for every horse that gets into col 3).

Tote Gold Trophy Although the Tote Gold Trophy is a 50-point bonus race, it has never specifically been targeted in the system. The problem is that nobody knows, pre-competition, what is likely to run in this winter-time handicap hurdle race and, even if they did, they still wouldn't have a clue what would win it. The race is sponsored by the Tote, who jointly administer the Ten To Follow competition, which explains why the race carries bonus points that it does not relatively deserve. The race rarely has any influence on the competition, apart from February's £10,000 monthly prize, and that situation will no doubt continue to prevail.

Grand National Although the Grand National is a 50-point bonus race, we stopped targeting the race in the system as of the 2002-3 season. Experience had shown that i) the ante-post market leaders, pre-competition, that always looked like they should win the race between them, never did so, ii) because of that, the eventual result of the National rarely had a bearing on the outcome of the competition, iii) on the only two occasions the competition had been decided on the outcome of the National, neither of the contestants involved had put the horses concerned in their lines as Grand National hopes and, finally, iv) there is always a fair chance that one or other of the selections we put in the Hennessy / King George / Gold Cup section will eventually emerge, unexpectedly, as a much livelier Grand National hope, on the day, than anything we can attempt to pick at the start of the competition (though they have never won it either!). The bottom group in the shortlist, that used to be for Grand National hopes, is now dedicated to miscellaneous selections that do not easily fit into the other categories. A long-distance chaser could still be included here if anything were to stand out.

Disclaimer: Every effort has been made to provide accurate and helpful guidance. However, no liability can be accepted by Capital Ratings nor by any other party or person involved herewith in the event of any erroneous or ultimately mistaken or misleading information. The above may be used only and purely on that understanding. As with all gambling, the system's past success does not guarantee future success.