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System for the Tote Ten To Follow : 2002 Flat
     May 2002:  Our tactic always is to reduce the Racing Post's initial list of horses, by a process of skill, judgment and discussion, down to a high-quality shortlist that will contain a maximum of 36 selections [only 28 named horses this time, as listed in column 4 below].  The selections in this shortlist are then permed, over a dozen or so lines, in strict accordance    with the allocations set out in columns 2 and 3 and the associated footnotes.  The cost of entering 12 lines at £10 per line is £120.  The deadline for posting the entries is/was Tuesday, 21st May, 2002.  For more information about our perming strategy, see the note below the list titled Well-Structured Lines.     
 
     Final shortlist posted here 21.05.02      View FINAL performance     
 
     Blue highlights = eventual best-ten selections     
Sel Distance Categories Per
Line		 FINAL SHORTLIST (this col) 28 named horses
 Others considered but not used
  Col 2 Col 3 Col 4 Col 5
      Pick the no. of sels stated in col 3 from the groups below = 10 sels per line  
1 & 2 Milers
8 rqd.
Perm any 2 per line		  2 11-1  Rock of Gibraltar# 3c O'Brien [50 25 25 12]
2-31  Landseer 3c O'Brien [12 LL 29 P]
11-1  Desert Deer 4c Johnston [LL 10 12]
0-11  Diaghilev 3c O'Brien [LL]
-011  Keltos 4c Fr [ret]
1-10  King Of Happiness 3c Stoute [L]

7)  Vacant )
8)  Vacant ) - see footnote *		 China Visit, -0L Danseuse d'Etoile 3f, Divine Task, No Excuse Needed, -1 Queen's Logic 3f Chan, -313L Redback 3c Hannon, 0-13  Sophisticat 3f O'Brien, Summoner, Tambourline,
3 1¼ mlrs
4 rqd.
Perm any 1 per line		 1 0-12   Noverre 4c Suroor [LLLL]
    -1   Best of the Bests 5h Sur [LLL]
2-02   Ekraar 5h Suroor [L]
121-   Masterful 4c Suroor [LLL]

 		 34-1   Indian Creek 4c Elsworth
20-0 Askham, -1 Chancellor 4c Hills [20], 0-13 Dandoun, Fire Break, 1-2L Grandera 4c Sur [104], 0-2L Okawango 4c Fr, 02-4 Priors Lodge, 44-0 Rosi's Boy, 20-30 Royal Millenium, 0-30 Soviet Flash, 2-11  Street Cry 4 Suroor (in US)
4 Oaks
4 rqd. Perm any 1 per line		  1 3-11  Islington 3f Stoute [L 25 25 L L]
11-1  Kazzia (as W/card 1)  3f Sur [50 29 L]
21-L  Quarter Moon 3f O'Brien [12 L L]
13-    Esloob 3f Tregoning [L 12]		  
5 & 6 Derby
4 rqd.  Perm any 2 per line		  2 11-2  Hawk Wing# 3c O'Brien [12 50 12 12 L]
1-11  High Chaparral 3c O'Brien [54 50 L 50]
12-0  Naheef 3c Sur [L 15 L]
    -2  Dubai Destination 3c Sur [ ]		  
7 & 8 1½ mlrs
8 rqd.  Perm any 2 per line		  2 2-13   Sakhee 5h Suroor [L]
11-1   Nayef 4c Tregonning [L 12 50]
0-41   Marienbard 5h Sur [L 25 25 66]
1-11   Act One 3 Fr [L inj]
140-   Golan (as W/card 4) 4c Stoute [54 12 L]
12-1   Aquarelliste 4f Fr [LLL]
11-1   Bandari 3c Johnston [L 15 20 L]

8)  Vacant - see footnote *		 Asian Heights 4c Wragg, 11-10 Ballingarry 3c O'Brien, -0 Canberra 3 O'Brien, -P Milan 4c O'Brien, -20L Sagacity 4c Fr, 22- Tobougg 4 Sur, -20-L Anabaa Blue 4 Fr, -11 Rebelline 4m O'Brien, 20-L Storming Home 4c Hills, 420-0 Wellbeing 5h Fr,
9 Sprinter
4 rqd.  Perm any 1 per line		  1 1)  1-20   Johannesburg 3c O'Brien [L ret]

2)  Wild Card 1 = Kazzia from Oaks group**
3)  Wild Card 2**
4)  Wild Card 3**
** For an explanation of "wildcards", see footnote ** immediately below this table.		 10-1 Falcon Hill 3 Johnston (spr), 21-1 Invincible Spirit 5h Dun (spr), 10- Western Verse 3c Cec
-40L Captain Rio, Danehurst 4f Presc, Harmonic Way 7h Char, 110-L Ishiguru 4c O'Brien (spr), -0 Meshahir (spr), 40-L Misraah 5h Sto, -0 Tendulkar,
10 Stayer
4 rqd.  Perm any 1 per line		 1 1)  111-   Vinnie Rowe 4c Weld [12 12 25]
2)  13-1   Give Notice 5g Dunlop [LL 32]

3)  Wild Card 4 = Golan from MD group**
4)  Wild Card 5**		 10- And Beyond 4c Johnston, 121-   Hatha Anna 5h Sur, 031-   Bosham Mill 4c Wragg,
1-42 Boreas 7g Cum, -3 Double Honour, Give The Slip 5, 20-3 Jardines Lookout 5g Jar, -L Mister Combustible 4c Hills, Persian Punch 9, Royal Rebel 6 [61], -L Solo Mio, 141  Zindabad 6h John,
 # Bankers
If you wanted some bankers, the only ones that look strong enough, at the time of submission, to justify going in a majority of your lines are Aiden O'Brien's pair Rock of Gibraltar and Hawk Wing.  Our minimum expectation for the latter is at least 62 points.
 
 * Vacant slots  (Milers to Middle-Distance sections)
This season, we could find only 28 named horses worthy of inclusion, not 36.  That left eight vacant slots.  Three of the slots are being left empty, the other five are being used as wildcards (see ** below).

If you look at the first section in the shortlist above (i.e. Milers), you will see that we only filled six of the eight available slots, leaving two slots vacant.  What this means, for this season's milers, is that we will be covering 2s from 6 instead of 2s from 8.  This, of course, will give us a better chance of pairing up our best two together in more lines.  There is another empty slot for the middle distance horses, which means we will be covering 2s from 7 instead of 2s from 8, again, slightly easier to do.
 
 ** Wild Cards  (Sprinters and Stayers' sections)
If you look at the "Sprinters" and "Stayers" sections (9 & 10 above), you will see that we only filled three of the eight available spaces, leaving five spaces empty.  These empty slots must be permed into your lines pro-rata and later filled by 'wildcard' selections.  That means, in our own case, substituting selections from any of the sections 1 to 8.  This would mean, for example, that some lines could receive three, or even four middle-distance horses from section 7/8, instead of only two - which would be no bad thing!  When adding these extra selections, take great care not to put the same horse twice in the same line.  It's surprisingly easy to do, as we know to our cost!
This rule takes advantage of the knowledge that it is not normally vital to the winning of the competition to have a sprinter in the line nor a stayer even.
Knowledge Base
The compilation of the Capital Ratings' shortlist for the 2002 season benefitted from the combined knowledge and expertise of five people.  They were (i) Terry, a dual winner in the Jumps' competition of a total of over £200,000), (ii) Robert (Terry's brother), another top-ten prize winner in the Jumps' competition and a National Hunt specialist, (iii) Peter, inventor of Capital Ratings and other racing-systems, (iv) Dell, a William Hill's betting shop manager and, finally, (v) Len, a professional form expert (formerly 'Man on the Spot' of the Sporting Life).
Needless to say, Capital Ratings has an impressive record for producing successful, quality shortlists.  The crucial point, though, is the perming of the right ones together in the same line.  This is never easy because the odds against are extremely high, and the prohibitive cost per line is also a major obstacle, especially since being doubled for the 2002 season, from £5 to £10.  However, we at Capital Ratings remain enthusiasts and always enjoy sharing our experience with other TTF devotees, and wish all our followers the best of British in the Flat 2002 competition.
Well-Structured Lines
As one would only expect of Capital Ratings, we always adopt a systematic approach to the competition.  Season after season, the end results show that well-structured lines, whether by chance or design, are the main ingredient to winning this competition.  Consequently, we always ensure that all our lines are well structured by adhering to the following strategy:- (i) we sort all our selections into distance categories as specified in column 2 and, (ii) we then use the number of selections specified in column 3 from each distance category in each line.  This discipline ensures that every single line we submit is always soundly proportioned around the all-important bonus-point races.  Thus, having done all we possibly can ourselves to maximise our chances, it is then just a simple case of enjoying watching if the horses, trainers, jockeys - and all the other imponderables involved in racing - will allow our endeavours to succeed!


FINAL WEB PAGE UPDATE - Best-possible rule-compliant line from the shortlist of 26 selections in col. 4 above
Type      Horse   Pts
Milers (2 in each line)   Rock of Gibraltar   112
  Landseer   41
1¼ mlr (1 per line)   Noverre   0
Oaks sel (1 per line)   Islington   50
Derby sel (2 per line)   Hawk Wing   136
    High Chaparrel   104
Middle Dist (2 per line)   Nayef   62
    Marienbard   116
Sprinter (1 per line) or wild-card   Wildcard 1 (if Kazzia)   79
Stayer (1 per line) or wild-card   Wildcard 4 (if Golan)   66
    Total   = 766

Comments in running (last one first) Back to top
26.10.02 - 766 pts:  Our best-possible line, above, would have gone into the final day of the 2002 Flat competition sitting in 2nd spot, and with an amazing seven of the ten horses therein due to run at the concluding Breeders Cup meeting in America.  That meeting included, for the first time, three 50-point bonus races.  For the above line to have won outright, all it would have taken was for either Landseer or Golan to have won, or for both to have merely finish second.  In the event, it was not to be.  But the line's final tally of 766 points would have taken the nice prize for second-place of £23,740.  This now makes three seasons in a row, i.e. since we first started sharing our system over the internet with other TTF devotees, that the method has contained a prize-winning line.  A very satisfying record.
8.10.02 - 704 pts:  Marienbard's welcome victory in the Arc, plus Landseer in North America, would have rocketed our best-possible line back into second spot on the leader board.
5.10.02 - 619 pts:  Our best-possible line has unexpectedly clawed its way back into the top ten leaders.  After plunging from 2nd to 16th, it would now have been back at joint 6th.
22.09.02 - 568 pts:  In the space of a just a couple of weeks, costly defeats for Hawk Wing (just robbed by Grandera), and for Bandari (rubbished in the St Leger by a couple of non-entities), saw our best-possible line crash from a lofty 2nd place down to 16th.  We had a great run during the summer months - but it suddenly looked as if we'd shot our bolt!
01.09.02 - 531 pts:  A repeat Group 1 win in, of all places, Germany again, for Godolphin's Marienbard, lifted the points tally for our best-possible line to an impressive 2nd place on 531 points.  However, as nobody was then on 531 on the Racing Post's leader board, this confirmed, sadly, that neither we nor any of our readers had actually permed the relevent ten horses together in a line.
24.08.02 - 516 pts:  Third place on the overall leaderboard for our best-possible line.
20.08.02:  A total of 82 points on York's opening day for Nayef, Golan and Bandari cemented a top 5 position for our best-possible line.
18.08.02:  12 easy Irish points pushes our best-possible line into the top five in the overall competition.
10.08.02: 409 pts:  7th place in the overall competition for our best-possible line.
02.08.02:  Our best-possible line was in the top thirty on the leaderboard, and finished second in the July monthly competition.
30.07.02 - 384 pts:  A rapid trio of winners, Golan (King George VI, 54 pts.), Marienbard (Germany, 25 pts), and Bindari (Goodwood, 15 pts), thrust our 'best-possible' line onto the competition leaderboard for the first time this season with a total then of 384 points.
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