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     System for the Tote Ten To Follow : 2002-3 Jumps     
     Oct 2002:  This page relates to the Tote's twice-a-year Ten-To-Follow racing competition, and is a complete systematic approach that, in the time that it has appeared here online, over the past three seasons, has included selections that could have been permed to have finished 1st (Flat 2001), 1st (Jumps 2001-2), and clear-2nd (Flat 2002), potentially netting    total of £441,000 in prize-money.  For the Jumps 2002-3 season, the middle column below shows our final shortlist of selections from which the entries will be permed as per the rules in column 2 and in the Footnotes.  Entries close Tuesday, 12th November, 2002.     
     Final shortlist posted here 10.11.02      View FINAL performance     
     Key - a key to abbreviations appears after the shortlist.      Blue highlight = best ten selections     
Type of Jumper SHORTLIST (this col) - 34 named horses
[  ] = results in competition		 Others considered but not used
 See Footnote (d)
Col 1 Col 2 Col 3

2m Hurdlers - Champion Hurdle types

4-6yo preferably		 From this group of 4 horses, take two per line:-

1)  111- Davenport Milennium 6 Ir [L inj 1/03]
2)  313- Ned Kelly 6 Ir [L inj 12/02]
3)  -1F1 Puntal 6 Pipe [LLL 15 LL]
4)  2-11 Intersky Falcon 5 O'Neill [20 25 L]		 311- Hors La Loi III 7 Fanshawe [FLL],  11- Galileo 6 T George, sml trnr, 14-1 Rooster Bstr 8 Hobbs, old for CH [29 20 12 W], 1P2- Marble Arch 6 Morrison, sm trnr [LLL], 1-01 Scottish Memories 6 Ir [LL], 100- Landing Light 7 Hndrsn [LLLL], 311- In Contrast 6 Hobbs [FLLL], 11-3 Quazar 4 O'Neill [LLWLWL], 020- Westender 6 Pipe [12], 2U1- Copeland 7 Pipe, 1P2- Alexander Milenium 6 Ir 2H/NC, 2-1F Vol Solitaire 4 Nicholls H/NC [10 L 12 10]

2m Chasers - Queen Mother Chase types

5-8yo pref		 From the next 12 horses below, take 3 per line - including 1 or 2 from the 1st group:-

1)  11-1 Moscow Flyer 8 Ir [U 15 15 50]
2)  112- Flagship Uberalles 8 Hobbs [SLL]
3)  22-2 Seebald 7 Pipe [LLLL]
4)          Wildcard 1 - see Footnote e)
 		 43-1 Edrodon Bleu 10, old for QM [L 12 15 L], 212- Native Upmnshp 9 Ir, old for QM [L 25 L W 12], 311- Dark 'N Sharp 7 Phillips, smallish trnr [LFLL], 103- Fondmort 6 Hendrsn [L 29 FLL], 0U2- Turgeonev 7 Easterby [LLULLL]

2m Nov Chsrs - Arkle Trophy types

5-8yo pref  		 5)  40-1 Azertyuiop 5 Nicholls NC [15 10 25]
6)  3-11 Impek 6 H Knight NC [15]
7)          Wildcard 2 - see Footnote e)
8)  04-1 Stars Out Tonight 5 Knight NC [L 10]
 		 140- Got One Too 5 Hendrso [10 LU 10 L], 4-11 Ansar 6 Ir NC, 00-3 Sacundai 5 Ir, pr rn fto, 221- First Love 6 Henderson NC

3+m Nov Chsrs - Royal & SunAlliance Chase types

5-9yo pref 		 9)    11F- Keen Leader 6 O'Neill NC [F 12 20 15 L]
10)  331- It Takes Time 8 Pipe NC/SH [LL 15 LL]
11)  30-1 Jair du Cochet 5 Fr NC [10 20 UL]
12)  221- Pietro Vannucci 6 Ir		 32-P Over The Bar 6 Ir NC, 141- Classified 6 Pipe NC/SH [L W W L], 244- Telemoss 8 Richards [10 10 10 L], 20-1 Joss Naylor 7 O'Neill NC/SH, 111/ Monsignor 8 Pitman, 210- Irish Hussar 6 Hendrsn, 101- The Bajan Bandit 7 Lungo NC [10 10 LPP], 012- Thari 5 Ir, -311 Comex Flyer 5 Nicholls NC [W LLLL], 112- Bannow Bay 7 Ir NC/SH [L]

2½m Hcp Chsrs - Thom Pink GC entries

5-9yo pref  		 For this group, use 1st four in the TPGC ante-post betting,  one per line (see Footnote a):-

1)  20-1 Chicuelo 6 Pipe [P 12 10 LL 10]
2)  41-1 Perfect Fellow 8 Knight [F]
3)  420- Exit Swinger 7 Pipe [ULLL]
4)  30-1 Davoski 8 Williams [LLLL]		 212- Lady Cricket 8 Pipe mare [LWLL], 10P- Foly Pleasant 8 Knight [LLL], 02P- Cyfor Malta 9 Pipe [66 LL], 1-11 Thyne Will Tell 7 Hobbs, 022- Wahiba Sands 9 Pipe [LL]

3m+ Hcap Chasers - Hennessy Gold Cup types

5-10yo pref 		 From the next 12 horses below, take 3 per line (see Footnote (b)):-

1)  001- Bounce Back 6 Pipe [LL]
2)  21-2 Hussard Collonges 7 Beaumnt [LLP]
3)  03-1 Gunther McBride 7 Hobbs, bled [LL 12]
4)  20-0 Whitenzo 6 Nicholls [LLLL]
 		 313- Frenchmns Crk 8, sm trnr, inj 20/11, 41/3 Gingembre 8 Taylor, sm trnr [L 12 L], 14-4 Frosty Canyon 9 Webber [L], 124- Kingsmark 9 Todhntr, sml trnr [25 L], 0-10 Carbury Cross 8 O'Neill [LLL], 120- Iznogoud 6 Pipe, 03-B Lord Noelie 9 Knight [L], P01- Take Control 8 Pipe [0L], 1P-0 Montifault 7 Nicholls

3m+ Chasers - King George VI Chase types

5-10yo pref		 5)  221- Best Mate 7 Knight [25 50 50]
6)  310- Bacchanal 8 Henderson [15 L dead 1/03]
7)  11-L Florida Pearl 10 Ir [LLL]
8)  11-1 Valley Henry 7 Nicholls [10 L 29 LL]
 		 210- Colonel Braxton 7 Ir [LL 10 LL], 11P- Shooting Light 9 Pipe, fin lm? [LL], 13-4 Lanmire Tower 8 O'Neill
3m+ Chasers - Cheltenham Gold Cup types

5-10yo pref		 9)    42P- Commanche Court 9 Ir [L 10 LL]
10)  F0-1 Marlboro 10 Hendrsn [L 12 FLL]
11)  0U3- Alexander Banquet 9 Ir [inj 12/02]
12)  111- Royal Auclair 5 Pipe [LL]		 034- First Gold 9 Fr [LLLLW], 213- Rince Ri 9 Ir [LLLL], 0U-0 Foxchapel King 9 Ir [15 LL], 1U2- Harbour Pilot 7 Ir [LLLL], 0FF- Sackville 9 Ir [24 L, inj 1/03], 240- Truckers Tavern 7 Ir [LWL 12]
U11- Ilnamar 6 Pipe [L], 2P2- Shotgun Wil 8 Nicholls SC, late start?

Others

Preferred ages as above except:-
5-7 for a SH
6-11 for a SC		 From this group of 4 horses, take one per line:-

1)  111- Baracouda 7 Fr SH  [15 L 50]
2)  -111 Barrow Drive 6 Ir [LL 29 L]
3)  11-1 Limestone Lad (as w/card 1 or 2) 10 Ir SH, old but good [15 25 10 15 LL]
4)  23-1 Brother Joe 8 Hobbs SH, [LPLL]		 43F- Davids Lad 8 Ir SC, 33-1 Zafarabad 8 Pipe SC, 0U0- Beau 9 Twiston D, inj, late start?, B4-0 Ad Hoc 8 Nicholls, GN [10 L], 01-0 Bindaree 8 Twiston-D SC [LLLLL]
Key:-  CH = Champion Hurdle     Fr = French trainer     Ir = Irish Trainer     NC = Novice Chaser     NH = Novice Hurdler     SC = Staying Chaser     SH = Staying Hurdler     TP = Thomas Pink hcp Chase     yo = years old
       
  Best-possible rule-compliant line from Column 2 above  
     
   Type of Horse         Name Pts   
  Chmpn Hdl types
(2 per line)		 •  Puntal  15  
  •  Intersky Falcon  40  
  QM, Arkle, R&SA
types (3 per line)		 •  Moscow Flyer 80  
  •  Azertyuiop 50  
  •  Wildcard 1 or 2 (if Limestone Lad) 65  
  Thom Pink sels (1 per line) •  Chicuelo 32  
  3m chasers (3 per line) •  Best Mate 125  
  •  Bacchanal 15  
  •  Valley Henry 39  
  Others (1 per line) •  Baracouda 65  
      Total to date  = 526  

Comments in running (last one first) Back to top
05.04.03 - 526 pts:  At the finalé Grand National meeting, our main shortlist produced 9 runners in 7 different races.  But, sadly, they all ran crap to a man and gave not one winner.  Prior to that, we had gone into Cheltenham on the leader board, apparently in a serious challenging position, with loads of bullets - but too many of them turned out to be blanks!  So, no success this season, not even in theory.  The ommission of high-scoring Champion Hurdle victor Rooster Booster proved too damaging.
13.03.03 - 526 pts:  At the Cheltenham Festival our shortlist produced a very satisfactory 23 runners in over a dozen different races.  But, with only four of them winning (Azertyuiop, Moscow Flyer, Baracouda and Best Mate), and the last three of those being hugely popular selections in the competition, that effectively destroyed our hopes of producing a winning opportunity on what would have been the fourth occasion in four consecutive competitions. 
07.03.03 - 378 pts:  We headed into the make-or-break Cheltenham Festival with a best-possible line that was just on the leaderboard by 2 points, and only 71 points behind the then overall leader.
11.02.03 - 348 pts:  Valley Henry's suspicious return to emphatic winning form was just enough to scrape our best possible-line onto the leader-board for the first time this season.  We cracked the champagne cork to celebrate!
01.01.03 - 279 pts:  Further gains have put our best-possible line just 4 points off the leader board, and edged us quite a bit closer to the overall leader's 376 points - if you can describe a 97 points' deficit as 'closer'.
26.12.02 - 249 pts:  A bagful of winners on Boxing Day boosted our formerly-flagging best-possible line to 249 points - only 9 points off the leader board.
18.12.02 - 147 pts:  Only three and a half weeks into the competition and we could be dead already!  Having continued to miss out on quite a few 25-point-plus winners.  Our best-possible line is already 41 points off the leader board, and a sorry 114 points behind the then leader's tally of 261.
08.12.02 - 137 pts:  Only two weeks into the competition and we already have a best-possible line with seven winners in it.  However, having missed out on both the Thomas Pink and Hennessy winners, and a couple of other 25-point-race winners, we are inevitably some way off the lead (by some 90 points in fact).  Hopefully no cause to be too despondent just yet.
 
Footnotes
(a)  Put one, and only one Thomas Pink runner in each line.  This is the first of the 50 point-bonus races in the competition.  You must try to get off to a flying start.  Concentrate on just the first four in the ante-post betting.  If you only fancy two of them, do just those, but still with only one in any line.  You only need the winner, not the second as well.  The 12 points for second in this race is usually irrelevant because these mainly-lowly 2 1/2 mile handicappers usually lack the potential to win any other 50-point bonus race.  If the actual TP winner proves to have been a popular fancy, and you don't have it in any of your lines, you will be in very deep trouble from the off.  On the other hand, if the race is won by an outsider, you will still be in with every chance because most persons that pick that kind of horse will have lines that will lack strength in depth and will eventually be overhauled.
(b)  The three x 3m Chaser groups are where you load up your lines with quality 3m+ chasers.  Five of the eight bonus-point races are in this distance category.
(c)  Hitherto, we have always used the final (bottom) group to pick four Grand National hopes, putting one in every line.  Not any more.  This has cost us dear in practice.  Experience over the first ten years of the competition has shown that i) the long-range ante-post favourites that look as though they might win the race have never done so, ii) because of that, the eventual result rarely has a bearing on the outcome of the competition, iii) on the only two occasions the competition has been decided on the outcome of the Grand National, neither of the contestants had put the horses concerned in their lines as Grand National hopes and, finally, iv) there is always a fair chance that one of the selections you do in the Hennessy/King George/Gold Cup groups will eventually come through, by chance, as a much livelier Grand National hope, on the day, than anything you can attempt to pick at the start of the competition.  Hence, the final group now counts, instead, as up to four miscellaneous selections, one of which will be in each line. These might still include a Grand National hope, of course, but, more probably, will include a classy staying hurdler, or a promising Irish novice hurdler, or some dark horse potentially capable of knocking up a sequence of wins.
(d)  Horses in column 3 are ones that are/were under consideration for transfer to the actual shortlist in column 2 but, ultimately, had to be eliminated.  You can't cover them all, unfortunately.  The likely reason(s) for rejection, which may or may not be shown, are usually because of one or more of the following:-  i) getting too old for their preferred distance, ii) small trainer, iii) fitness doubt or, iv) unlikely to clock up 60+ points all told (which has to be the theoretical expectancy for every horse that gets into column 2).
(e)  If there are fewer than four selections in any of the nine sub-groups in column 2 above, that leaves a vacant slot.  A vacant slot still counts as a selection for permutation purposes, and must be filled.  A vacant slot in an actual line can be filled by any unused selection from the same group or any other group and, therefore, effectively acts like a wildcard selection.  However, when filling these 'vacant slots' in your entry, take care not to accidentally put a selection in the same line twice.  It's easily done.
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Disclaimer:  Every effort has been made to provide accurate and helpful guidance.  However, no liability can be accepted by Capital Ratings nor by any other party or person involved herewith in the event of any erroneous or ultimately mistaken or misleading information.  The above may be used only and purely on that understanding.  As with all gambling, the system's past success does not guarantee future success.