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| System for the Tote Ten To Follow : 2001 Flat |
| May 2001: We've been
doing the Tote Ten To Follow competition ever since it began eight years ago in 1993.
But this was the first time our selections and guidelines have appeared online for others to
see and share. This has come about as a result of changes to the rules for the 2001 Flat
competition which prompted us to predict it would be "easier than ever for somebody to
win" (see article). The table below shows our final selections for the 2001 competition. The objective is to try to shortlist only |
horses potentially capable of earning 75 points each - e.g.
a 50-point bonus race plus a 25-point Group 1 race. The final list was uploaded here in
time for the deadline for posting in entries for the competition. Column 1 below sorts selections by type, from sprinters through to stayers. Col 2 indicates how many of each type we need in order to give a total of 36 sels maximum. Col 3 shows the final list. Col 4 shows horses which had also been considered but ultimately were rejected in favour of those in the final 36 in Col 3. |
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| Final shortlist posted here 24.5.01 | View FINAL performance |
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| Blue highlights = eventual best-ten selections |
| Type |
No. rqd. |
FINAL SHORTLIST (this col)
36 named horses |
Others considered but not used |
| Col 1 | Col 2 | Col 3 | Col 4 |
| Milers | Upto 8 milers rqd. 2 to go in each line |
1316 -1 Observatory 4c Gos 1277 -1 Medicean 4c Sto 1314 -21 Noverre 3c Sur 1094 -13 Clearing 3c Gos 1105 Crystal Castle 3c Fr 1015 -1 Ameerat 3f WGns Jar 1410 -1 Shibboleth 4c Cec 1085 -1 Chancellor 3c Hil |
Becket 3c Ir, Danceabout 4f Wra, Endless Summer 3c Gos, -21 Freud 3c Ir, King Charlemagne 3c Ir, -3L Okawango 3c Fr, Raneem 3c Sur, Regal Rose 3f lm Sto, Takrir 4c Dun, Terrestrial 3c Gos, |
| 1¼ milers |
Upto 4 10f horses rqd. 1 to go in each line |
1231 Kalanisi 5h Sto 1216 Island House 5h Wra 1052 Best Of T'Bests 4c Sur 1390 Sakhee 4c Sur |
-2 Amonita 3f Fr, Attache 3c Cha, -2 Bach 4c Ir, Beat Hollow 4c Cec, -40L Ekrar 4c Sur, Jammaal 4Ir needs hvy, -2L Milan 3c Ir, 1295 Muakaad 4c Ir, Slickly 5c Sur, West Order 3c Sur, |
| Derby | Upto 4 Derby runners rqd. 2 to go in each line |
1170 -1 Golan
3c Sto See *2 right 1163 -11 Galileo 3c Ir 1027 -21 Asian Heights 3c Wra 1117 -1 Dilshaan 3c Sto |
-1 Aldwych 3c Cha, -11 Perfect Sunday *2 Concentrate on the 1st four in the latest-possible Derby ante-post betting. Put two in each line. |
| Oaks | Upto 4 Oaks runners rqd. 1 to go in each line |
1149 -4 Flight Of Fancy
3f Sto See *3 1373 Relish The Thought 3f Hil 1444 Tarfshi 3f Jar 1292 -1 Mot Juste 3f EdD |
Autumn Rythm 3f Cec, -L Candice, -0L Fully Invested 3f Cec,
-L Karasata 3f Sto, 2 Muwakleh 3f Sur, 1433 Summer Symphony *3 Concentrate on the 1st four in the latest-possible Oaks ante-post betting. Put one in each line. |
| 1½ milers |
Upto 12 middle distance horses rqd. 3 to go in each line |
1283 -1 Millenary 4c Dun 1147 Fantastic Light 5h Sur 1172 -1 Golden Snake 5h Dun 1127 -2 Egyptband 4f Fr 1343 Petrushka 4f Sto 1001 -L1 Adilabad 4c Sto 1258 Little Rock 5h Sto 1389 Sagacity 3c Fr 1330 Panis 3c Fr 1486 Welsh Main 4c Cec 1278 Mediterranean 3c Ir 1140 Equerry 3c Sur |
-L Air Express, -2L Amiwain 3c Fr, -0L Atlantis Prince 3c Sur, -1L Denon 3c Fr, -3 Holding Court, -L Miletrian 4f Cha, Pawnbroker 4c Dun, Street Cry inj?, -2 Wareed 3c Fr/Lod, -L Well Being, |
| Stayers | Upto 4 stayers rqd.1 to go in each line | 1108 -34 Dalampour 4c Sto 1273 -1 Marienbard 4c Sur 1166 Give The Slip 4c Sur 1384 Royal Rebel 5g Joh |
-12 Ancelin 4f Ir, Epitre 4c Fr, Mutafaweq, Quality Team
4g Ir, -2 San Sebastian, Viscious Circle, Murghem, Saddlers Quest,
Samsaam, Savoire Vivre 4c Sur, -L Romantic Affair, Talaash Stayers have not previously been critical to winning the competition. However, the Ascot Gold Cup is now one of the new 50 pt bonus races so, if any stayers stand out, they should probably be in - one per line say. |
| Sprinters See Side Note *1 right |
Upto 4 sprinters rqd., 1 or 0* per line | [Sampower Star 5h Sur] see *1 right [Three Points 4c Sur] *1 [Bouncing Bowdler 3c Joh] *1 [Ishiguru 3c Ir] *1 |
-001 Pipalong, -L Red Carpet 3c, -00L Astonished 5g Ram,
-L Enthused 3f, Bad As I Wanna Be 3c, -4 Minardi 3c Ir (risk will be kept at 1m) *1 The sprinters in the Shortlist (col 3 left) looked a motley crew. We decided there was no point including any of these at the expense of leaving out a middle-distance horse, or a Derby-type horse, from each line - hence the square brackets [ ]. |
| Web Page Update - 12th October, 2001 |
| Type | Horse | Pnts | |||
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| Milers (2 per line) | • | Noverre | 53 | ||
| • | Medicean | 74 | |||
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| 10f (1 per line) | • | Sakhee | 112 | ||
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| Derby sels (2 per line) | • | Golan | 32 | ||
| • | Galileo | 154 | |||
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| Oaks sel (1 per line) | • | Flight of Fancy | 12 | ||
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| 12f (3 per line) | • | Fantastic Light | 87 | ||
| • | Egypt Band | 20 | |||
| • | Mediterranean | 72 | |||
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| Stayer (1 per line) | • | Royal Rebel | 61 | ||
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| System's total to date | = 677 |
| 12.10.2001 - Well, we did say the new rules for the Flat
2001 competition would make it easier than ever for somebody to win the competition. We have been steadily developing our systematic approach for doing the Ten To Follow ever since the first year the competition was run. But this year (2001) was the first time we felt confident in openly sharing it with other enthusiasts via the web. And, thankfully, it proved to be our strongest effort to date in the Flat competition theorywise. If anybody had put the above ten horses, from our shortlist, in one line, they would have been leading the competition on 677 points on 12.10.2001. There was still one bonus race to go - but a score of 677 points was unassailable, and it also represented an incredible 71 points lead over the then second-placed competitor. So the first prize of £116,000 would have been in the bag before the competition was fully over. |
Despite how easy it might have been, with hindsight, to have put
those ten animals in one line, the sad truth was that neither we, nor any of our few initial
followers, came even close to putting all ten in the same line. What a shame! Drawing
up a such a powerful shortlist in the first place, from the large number of horses eligible
(500), was the most difficult part. To have then squandered the golden chance it gave
us to win, because of poor permutations on our part was very painful. But encouraging
enough for us to follow up by posting the Jumps version of our system for the first time. [Update: You can use the 'Up one season' link below to see how the Jumps version performed in 2001-2, its inaugural year online.] |
| To current TTF | Up one season | Down one season | Top |