Domains   GoldWings   Travel   Computing   Investing   Racing   Search   Hotmail   Links   Extras 
  The Racing Section
   by Capital Ratings
 
 Menu • TTF Guide • Current TTF       01-02       Prvs TTF • Ratings • Top 2yo's • Top 3yo's • Systems • Contact 
 
   System for the Tote Ten To Follow : 2001-2 Jumps   
   Nov 2001:  The list below shows our selections for the Racing Post Ten To Follow Competition for the National Hunt season 2001-2.  We began this online list on 3.9.01, and progressively added updates during the lead-up to the deadline for posting of 11.11.01.  Our approach is to reduce the newspaper's list of a thousand horses down to about fifty, categorised by age, racing distance, and key target races, as per Table 1 below.  Then we fine tune this shortlist to a final list of about 36, as per Table 2.  We then perm these 36 over a dozen or so lines, with ten horses in each line, for our actual entry.  Well-structured lines are the key.  This means ensuring that every single line of ten contains a correct proportion of the different types of jumper according to the bonus points on offer for    the key races in the competition.  Consequently, each line of ten will broadly contain:- two 2-mile hurdlers (Champion Hurdle types); two 2-mile chasers (a Queen Mother type and an Arkle type); two 2½ mile chasers (a fancied Thomas Pink runner and an R&SA type); three 3-mile chasers (Hennessy/Kg George/Gold Cup types) and, finally, one staying chaser (Grand National type).  We usually avoid mares and ageing horses, and strictly avoid novice hurdlers and handicap hurdlers.  Except we might slip a staying hurdler in some lines if anything stands out - purely with an eye on the Stayers Hurdle and the £10,000 consolation prize for most points at the Cheltenham Festival.   
 
     Final shortlist posted here 10.11.01 (Table 2)      View FINAL performance     
 
   Table 1 - Initial long-list.  See Table 2 for final shortlist.  Table 1 first posted 3.9.01, last posting 5.11.01   
  Horses in the list below with a green number to the left of their name are the ones currently most-fancied to feature in our final list of about 36 selections.  Update 10.11.01:- go straight to Table 2 at the bottom of the page for a quick summary of the very final preferences.  
No  Form  Horse  Trainer  Age  Dist  Target  In? Comments
Hurdlers, about 4 wanted, 2 in each line - preferred age ranges = 4-6yo (2m) & 5-7 (styrs)
1    -  Istabraq  O'Brien Ir  9  2H  Chmp H  In Risky age
2    -1  Ned Kelly  O'Grady Ir  5  2H  Chmp H  In  
3    -  Landing Light  Henderson  6  2H  Tote GT  In Bob's tip
4    -3  Jair du Cochet  Doumen Fr  4  2H  Chmp H  ½ in  Bob's tip
5    -  Baracouda  Doumen Fr  6  StyrH  Styrs H  ½ in  
     -2  Limestone L  Bowe Ir  9  StyrH  Ir Pts   Too old?
     -  Bounce Back  Pipe  5  StyrH  Styrs H    
     -  Monsignor  Pitman  7  3C  Styrs H    
     -  Dark Shell  Henderson  6  2H  Tote GT    
     -  Bilboa  Doumen Fr  4  2H  Chmp H   Filly
2m Chasers, up to 8 wanted, 2 in each line - preferred age range 5-8yo
6    -3  Fadalko  Nicholls  8  2C  Qn Mum  In  
7    -  Flagship Ubera  Hobbs  7  2C  Qn Mum  In Bob's tip
8    -2  Native Upma  Moore Ir  8  2+C  Qn Mum  In  
9    -2  Knife Edge  O'Brien Ir  6  2C  Qn Mum  In  
10    -F  Moscow Flyer  Harrngtn Ir  7  2NC  Arkle  In Ern's tip
11    -  Valiramix  Pipe  5  2H  TGT/Arkl    
12    -1  October Mist  M Reveley  7  2C    In Beat Barton
13    -12  Redemption  Webber  6  2C     CR tip
     Edrodon Bleu    9  2C  Qn Mum   Too old?
     -  Rooster Booster  Hobbs  7  2NC    In Ern's tip
   -  Stage Affair  Weld Ir  7  2NC  Arkle   Ern's tip
     -L  Ballinclay King  F Murphy  7  2hC      
     -LL  Cenkos  Nichols  7  2C  Qn Mum  Out ex-CR tip
     -3  Ichi Beau  F Murphy  7  2C    In ex-CR tip
     -1F  St Pirran  Nicholls  6  2NC  Arkle  Out ex-CR tip
2½m Chasers, up to 8 wanted, 2 per line - preferred age range 5-9yo
14    Tom Pink fav        T Pink  In For this section, we choose from 1st 4-ish in Thom Pink ante-post betting, but only one in each line.
15    -  TPink 2nd fav        T Pink  In
16    -  TPink 3rd fav        T Pink  In
17    -  TPink 4th fav        T Pink  In
18    -2  Barton  Easterby  8  2½NC  R&SA  In Ernie's tip
19    Colonel Braxton  Hughes Ir  6  2½NC  R&SA  In  
20    -  Mr Banjo  Nicholls  5  2½NC  R&SA  In Bob's tip
21    -1  Risk Accessor  C Roche  6  2½NC  R&SA    
     -11  Southern Star  H Knight  6  3NC  R&SA    
     -  Dusk Duel  Henderson  6  2½C  Tr Prnt   Bob's tip
3m Chasers, up to 12 wanted, 3 in each line - preferred age range 5-10yo
22    -  First Gold  Doumen Fr  8  3C  Kg Grg  In  
23    -2  Florida Pearl  Mullins Ir  9  3C  Kg Grg  out?  
24    -  Marlborough  Hend  9  3C  Henn  In  
25    -31  Sackville  Crowley Ir  8  3C  Gld Cup  In  
26    -1  Best Mate  Bowe Ir  9    Best Mate  in?  
27    -2  Sleeping Night  Reveley  5 3C  Gld Cup  In
28    -3  Shotgun Willy  Nicholls  7  3 C  Gld Cup  In  
29    -  Rince Ri  Walsh Ir  8  3C  Gld Cp  In  
30    -4  Legal Right  O'Neill  8  3C  Kg Grg  in?  
31    -1  Montifault  Nicholls  6  3+C  Henn    
32    -L  Hindiana  F Murphy  6  3C  Henn   CR tip
     -  What's Up Boys  P Hobbs  7  3+C  Henn   CR tip
     -  Alexander B  Mullins Ir  8  3C  Gld Cp  out? Late campaign
     -  Bacchanal            
     -  Behrajan            
     -  Young Sparta  H Daly  8  3C     CR tip
     -L  Streamstown  F Murphy  7  3+C  Henn   CR tip
     -F  Lord Noelie  H Knight  8  3C  Gld Cp  in?  
     -L  Be My Manager          Out Well btn
Staying Chasers, up to 4 wanted, 1 in each line - preferred age range 6-11yo
33    -  Ad Hoc  Nicholls  7  3C  GN  In GN a/pst fav
34    -  Beau  Twiston-D  8  Styr  GN  In GN a/p 2nd fav
35    -1P  Davids Lad  Martin Ir  7  Styr  GN  In GN a/p 3rd fav
36    -  Blowing Wind  Pipe  8    GN  In Ern's tip
 
  Our final selections changed quite dramatically in some instances in the final few days before the deadline for posting entries.  The following table is a tidier summary of our final offerings:-  

TABLE 2.  FINAL SHORTLIST sorted by target races (34 named horses)
Blue highlight = best ten sels.		 This table first posted5.11.01, final 10.11.01
  
2m Hurdlers - CH types 2m Chsrs - Qn Mum types 2m Nov Chsrs - Arkle types 3m Nov Chsrs - R&SA types Thom
Pink sels		 3m+ Hcp Chsrs - Hennessy types 3m Chsrs - King Gg types 3¼m Chsrs - Gold Cup types Staying Chsrs - GN types
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Istabraq
Landing Light
Ned Kelly
Jair Du Cochet
Edrodon
Fadalko
Flagshi
Tiutchev
MoscowF
Valiramix
MrCool
/////////////
Monsignor
ColonelBr
ValleyHen
SouthernS
Shooting
LadyCric
Behrejan
/////////////
Montifault
WhatsUp
Foxchape
Baracou *
First Gol
Marlboro
FloridaP
SleepingN
Sackville
Best Mate
Bacchan
ShotgunW
Beau
Ad Hoc
DavidsLa
BlowingW
Sctn 1.
Perm 2 per line
from the above four		 Sctn 2.
Perm 3 per line including at
least one from col 3		 Sctn 3.
1 per
line		 Sctn 4.
Perm 3 per line
* = A fancied Stayers Hurdle selection
( put in instead of a 4th Hennessy horse) 		Sctn 5.
1 per
line
  

   Our practice of carefully structuring our Ten To Follow entries in the above manner has brought us much excitement in the past, so we are glad to share our acquired experience with fellow enthusiasts.  However, we are not, unfortunately, immune to what scientists call the Chaos Theory, and its adverse effect on racing probabilities.  Hence we can never be absolutely certain of finding every season's star performers in our shortlist of 36.    In fact, sometimes, it has to be admitted, we miss out hopelessly.  When that happens, it's just a case of waiting for the next season and having another enjoyable crack.  Anyway, good luck and, if we don't win again, then we certainly don't mind if it's one of our readers!  But do let us know if we were any help, we always love to hear from other TTF devotees.   


   Best-possible rule-compliant line from Table 2 above is as follows...   

   Type        Horse Pts   
  Chmpn Hdl types (2 per line) •  Istabraq  25  
•  Landing Light  35  
  QM, Arkle, R&SA types
(3 per line)		 •  Flagship Uberalles 79  
  •  Moscow Flyer 69  
  •  Valley Henry 25  
  Thom Pnk sel (1 per line) •  Shooting Light 75  
  3m Stayers (3 per line) •  Baracouda (see note * above) 77  
  •  Florida Pearl 111  
  •  Best Mate 66  
  Grd Ntnl type (1 per line) •  Blowing Wind 47  
      System's best total  = 609  
      Real winner's score  = 578  

   Anybody putting the above ten horses from Table 2 in just one of their lines, as per the specimen line above, would have amassed 609 points.  That was 31 points more than the 578 points which actually won the first prize of £302,000.  Despite how easy it could have    been, with hindsight, yet again, to have put those ten animals in one line, the sad truth was that neither we, nor any of our followers, managed it for real.  But we did enjoy a fantastic run for real - including finishing on the final leader board.   
   To current TTF        Up one season        Down one season        Top