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   Guidelines to winning the Totesport Ten-To-Follow with our System   
   What is the Totesport Ten To Follow?    Which horses should you do?   
  How to enter the Ten To Follow   How many lines should you do?  
  Why is the TTF competition so special?   Importance of well-structured lines  
  How many horses should you do?  What
are the odds?  How to perm them?
  Easier than ever to win on the Flat  
   What is the Totesport Ten To Follow?
The Ten-To-Follow (TTF) is an exciting horse racing competition run jointly by the Tote (aka Totesport) and the Racing Post newspaper in the UK.  Of all the big-money competitions around, this one is the nearest there is to being a game of skill rather than purely a game of chance.  It has aptly been dubbed the "thinking man's lottery".
The Racing Post first introduced the competition way back in 1993.  It proved so popular with the paper's readership, from the start, both home and overseas readers, that the competition has been run twice a year ever since.  There is one competition for the Flat season [which we stopped covering with our TTF system after a bad rule change in 2004 (since reversed from 2008)], and another much more popular, and more valuable competition for the Jumps season [which we still cover with our TTF system on this microsite].
From the TTF's early, tentative beginnings, it steadily matured in both finesse and popularity to a stage whereby the expected prize-money to the winner for a Flat season soon became a £100,000+ and, for a Jumps' season, £300,000 or more.
To take part, you need a good knowledge of horse racing yourself or you need a knowledgeable friend or friends who will team up with you.  Without access to racing knowledge there is absolutely no point entering.  You would stand no chance at all - this competition is not a mindless game like the lottery, bingo or scratchcards.
The first task Ten To Follow contenders have to do is study a large list of 500 eligible horses.  The list is published in the Racing Post in April (Flat) and October (Jumps).  The list has to be whittled down to a more-manageable shortlist of around two to three dozen top-class, and potentially top-class, animals.  This difficult whittling is one of the key things our system does for you.  Once you have a shortlist, you then have to perm the horses into any number of different lines of ten horses, and submit your lines using either the postal entry forms provided in the Racing Post or by phone or the internet.  The newspaper, with the help of the Tote, tracks the performance of the tens of thousands of entries throughout the season, and prints a new leader-board twice a week, usually on Tuesdays and Fridays.  A horse is awarded a number of points every time it wins a race, the amount varying from 10 through to 50 points, depending on the quality of the race won, plus bonus points according to the Tote odds of the winner.  The ten people whose lines amass the most points by the end of the competition's run win big prizes.  The person with most points wins the bulk of the prize-money on offer.  In addition, there are separate bonus prizes of £10,000 each month for the leading points' scorer for the month.  And there are three further £10,000 prizes for the leading points' scorers at two top class Flat meetings (Royal Ascot, and York's Ebor Meeting), and at the Cheltenham National Hunt Festival.  Hence, even if you fall out of contention for the overall prizes, there are continuing opportunities for the monthly and festival prizes.
The prize money comes from the entry fees that competitors submit with their entries.  The cost of each line is £10 so, to submit twelve lines, this would cost £120.  This may seem a lot but, when you consider that it will bring you lots of fun, enjoyment, excitement and anticipation for the whole length of a racing season, it is well worth the cost whether you win or lose.
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How to enter the Tote Ten To Follow
Entry instructions for the competition are published in the Racing Post, during the run-up to the start of each new competition i.e. in the months of April (Flat), and October and November (Jumps).
There are three possible ways to enter.  By post, by telephone, or online through the Tote's website.  Postal entries have traditionally been the standard way to enter.  But, as of the 2005-6 Jumps season, a new 'substitutions' rule was introduced which created a big inducement (advantage) to telephone and internet entrants.  This made it virtually essential to submit entries, for that season, by the internet (or telephone) or not at all.  This unlevel playing field drove out so many former enthusiasts that the rule was amended as of the 2006-7 Jumps season to permit substitutions to postal entries also.
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Why is the 'tentofollow' Competition so special?
The great attraction of this particular racing competition is that skill, knowledge and experience count for everything.  If you are somebody with those things, or you know somebody else who is, and you can combine those attributes with inspired judgment, then it is quite feasible that you could be a future winner.  Over the years, the big prizes have been won by all levels of racing enthusiasts, from trainers' assistants, to form students and unemployed punters.  But, most important, there have been several repeat winners, including people on our own team.  Which goes to show that skill, not just luck, is a significant factor.  In fact, one of our team has so far won over £212,000 in prizes and, later, another of our team was well on course to collect a similar amount when a heartbreaking end-of-season run of eleven seconds in eleven races robbed him of outright victory, and he had to settle for a 9th-place consolation prize of only £3,000 in the end.  That was before we started to publish our system online in 2001.  Since then, the system has produced ever increasing chances of winning for a slowly growing band of followers - but nobody managed to capitalise on the opportunities until success finally came in 2007-8.
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How many horses should you do?  What are the odds?  How to perm them?
One year, the competition was won by somebody who scribbled out just two lines covering twenty horses while sitting on the loo.  And another year by somebody who did three lines, also covering twenty horses.  However, twenty selections is not enough to provide a steady flow of runners in the critical races.  And, if you don't have runners, then boredom, followed by loss of interest, soon sets in - not to mention the increased likelihood of rapid failure.  Our early experiences of the competition showed one needs nearer 40 horses than 20 to be reasonably hopeful of having a runner in most of the critical races.  However, one also has to be aware that the chances of lining up any 10 from forty is an enormous 847 million to 1 against.  To put that in perspective, the odds of winning the UK National Lotto (6 numbers from 49) are only 14 million to 1 against (and only £1 a line, not £10!).  The compromise strategy employed by our system, between having enough runners on the one hand, while still hoping to be able to perm them on the other hand, is to limit the system's shortlist to never more than 36 horses, less when practicable (the lowest was 26 once).  The odds of lining up any 10 from 36 achieves a 70% reduction in the odds, down to 254 million to 1.  However, we further subdivide the 36 horses into five or six smaller, separately permable subgroups, which brings the odds crashing down even further.   In fact, in the first few years we were posting the system online, we succeeded in reducing the initially horrendous odds down to a much more viable 180,000 to 1 against lining up the best ten.  Unfortunately, though, later rule changes in the competition put the Flat version of our system out of action from 2004 to 2007, and also forced us to broaden the perming instructions for the Jumps version in order to still be in with some sort of reasonable expectancy of trapping a winning combination.  Consequently, the odds of perming any ten horses are 4 million to 1 for the NH version (which has five subgroups), and 2 million to 1 for the Flat version (which has six subgroups).  A lot better than the lottery, but still frighteningly high.  However, that is a worst case scenario.  In practice, the odds are likely to be considerably lower - one time, remarkably, as low as double-figures.  That happens in years when the form works out well, with the stronger fancies doing their stuff.  And/or in the years when our shortlists have contained a lot more than just ten countable, scoring horses, as in the 2005-6, 2006-7 and 2007-8 seasons, for example.  The odds against ever lining up a winning line from any sizable shortlist will always be very daunting, of course.  No point in pretending otherwise.  And, one year, our shortlist has totally blown out which doesn't help!  And, inevitably, it will do so again sooner or later.  Nevertheless, win or lose, the odds are always going to be a lot better if you use our system than if you do your own thing and try to pick your own lines of ten from the full list of 500 horses and perm them ad hoc.  The odds of you pulling that off are 245 million million million to 1 against.  Need we say more!
In practice, you can shorten the odds further by using the stronger fancies in more lines than the more speculative fancies.  For instance, some sections of the system's shortlist are built around blocks of four horses.  In fact, the first Jumps' block (which is for 2m Champion Hurdle types) always includes exactly four horses.  Sometimes a block will contain a blank space - this has to be permed in pro-rata with its position in a block and serves later as a wildcard entry.  The top (strongest) horse should typically go in twice as many lines as the bottom (weakest) horse in a block of four (or four-times as many in a block of 8).  And the horses in between, or blank space(s), pro-rata.  So, if horse A was in six of your lines, horse B might be in five lines, the blank space in four lines and horse D in three lines.  So the coverage might look something like this...
1.  Horse   A A A A A A      
2. Horse   B B B       B B  
3. Blank         w w   w   w
4. Horse             D   D D
...where 'w' can be any horse or horses picked from the same block and/or from any other block anywhere in the entire shortlist.  In this example, the 'w' could be used, say, to cover Horse A one more time (i.e. 7 times instead of 6), Horse B one more time (i.e. 6 times instead of 5) and any horse from any other block two more times (i.e. using the blank like a wildcard).  This is only a small example with only a few lines, but it shows how to weight horses and blank spaces according to their positions within a block. 
By repeating the above style of weighting for each other block in the shortlist, the theoretical odds can be significantly swung in your favour in years when the form works out as it should.  This tactic helps to make it perfectly feasible to cover 36 selections in a relatively small number of lines with a high expectation of success.  Until, that is, the competition actually gets underway, and all the wrong results start happening!
In our perming illustration above, we have used a block of two from four which, admittedly, is easy to cover fairly tightly.  Where it gets harder is in some of the other blocks in the shortlist which involve either two from eight or (Jumps) three from twelve.  There is no way those blocks can be permed tightly within themselves - let alone with the other blocks.  It would take 6 million lines to cover every possible combination.  But, whenever the stronger horses do the biz and/or an excess of countable horses occur within the eight and twelve horse blocks, which is often what occurs with our shortlists, then the chance of success is always going to be there.
If, as we have advised elsewhere, you do about twelve lines each year (cost £120), we recommend you should, in your first four lines, cover all 36 selections, using a mix in each of those lines of stronger horses with more speculative horses.  By covering every horse at least once, you will, at least, enjoy a steady flow of runners to keep your interest up, right through the season, with many of those runners in the crucial key races.  Also, by the end of December (Jumps comp), if there are ten or more winners in the shortlist, you will have every one of them at least once somewhere in one of those first four lines.  Sod's law says, of course, they'll fall 3 3 2 2 but, if they fell right for you, and it's obviously a possibility, then you could be in line to win the first bonus prize of the competition i.e. the £10K for most points in December.  And that particular prize is proving to be the easiest opportunity of winning as our shortlist provided multiple winning lines in three of the four Decembers from 2004 to 2007.  A third advantage of covering all 36 horses at least once is, come January, you will be guaranteed all of the shortlist's winners somewhere in your entry and, with the aid of two substitutions per line, you may find you at least have some lines worth aiming at the Cheltenham £10K bonus prize (Jumps comp again) if not the overall prize.
If you do a dozen lines then, after covering all 36 horses in the first four lines, you should, for the remaining lines, start applying some weighting to the horses (i.e. covering some horses more than others, maybe even leaving some out altogether).  Mix them about a bit, using 50% skilled judgment and, just as important, 50% imaginative intuition - giving it your very best shot to try to bring the eventual best-scoring ten from the shortlist together in one of your lines.
In any year when there are vacancies (blank spaces) in the shortlist they must be included pro-rata in your lines in accordance with their weighting (position) in their block.  Each vacancy serves as a wildcard as per the system's wildcard rule.  Do not bypass or ignore the vacant slots as they provide a powerful fine-tuning opportunity.  Similarly, do not abuse a wildcard opportunity by bringing in personal fancies from outside the shortlist.  It may not seem like it to you, but it will mean you are effectively trying to cover more than 36 selections.  That, of course, will dilute your entry and, ultimately, reduce, not enhance, your chances of winning.
We are occasionally asked are we not spoiling our own chances of ever winning the competition again by publishing our shortlist and rules for all-and-sundry to see.  But it's not a problem.  The more people who do the competition, especially the large syndicate entries all doing their own thing, the bigger the pot for everyone else to share.  Moreover, the chances of two different people entering identical winning lists of 10 horses from the same shortlist of 36 selections is, at £10 per line, financially non-existent.
   Which horses should you do?
Your horses have to be chosen from a master list printed in the Racing Post newspaper.  So they are actually giving you the winning list to start off with!  It is definitely in there somewhere - all you have to do is fathom out where, using knowledge and judgment!  Easier said than done, true, but perfectly feasible, and always very enjoyable just trying.  However, our own carefully prepared shortlist, published here on this website each season, is as good a starting point as you could possibly hope to find.
One big tip, when reading any articles about your fancies, is not to be sucked in by glowing reports about the stars of last year (which any fool can write).  All too often, it will turn out that it was last year you needed them, not the coming year!  The bulk of past stars regularly fail to shine again in the following season to the same degree as before.  Though the few that do are usually vital to a winning entry.  So, a balance between horses with known class and horses with potential high class, combined with an expectation for every selection to achieve 75 points on average, based on the type of race you expect it to be targeted at, is what should dictate the actual horses you should do.
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How many lines should you do?
As we said in the left hand column, the competition has been won by people doing as few as two or three lines.  But that was unusual.  Most winners have usually made a much more determined attempt to win than that.  In fact, a lot of entrants form small syndicates with friends and family in order to spread the cost of entering a reasonable number of lines.  If you were to cover up to 36 horses, as we tend to do, you need to enter at least a dozen lines, more if you can afford it, though do not go over the top.  In this respect, the competition is much like the Lotto.  Beyond a certain point, doing more lines will not increase your chances of winning - it will merely increase your chance of losing more!  Try not to lose sight of this simple law of probability.
Twelve lines at £10 a line would cost you £120.  Equal to just £4 a week for a prolonged amount of entertainment and enjoyment that lasts all season long.
In any competition there must, by definition, be a great many more losers than winners.  But this particular competition is, without doubt, as we said at the start, the "thinking man's lottery".  So, make entering it every season [Jumps only after 2003] a regular part of the rest of your life!
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Well-structured lines are so important
To give yourself a realistic chance of winning the competition, and the first prize of £100,000+, you require a well-structured entry that has been put together better than anybody else's.  This difficult structuring of the lines is another key thing our system does for you.
A well-structured entry for the Jumps is one where every line entered contains horses, in appropriate proportions, that will be contending races like the Champion Hurdle, Stayers Hurdle, Champion Chase, Arkle or R&SA novice chases, Paddy Power Gold Cup, Hennessy, King George, and Gold Cup.  Click back through the "Prvs TTFs" tabs at the top of each page if you would like to see how our structuring strategy was applied, with enormous potential, in 2007-8, 2006-7, 2005-6, 2003-4 & 2001-2.
A well-structured entry for the Flat is one where every line entered contains horses, in appropriate proportions, that will be contending all the top-class Flat races throughout the season, from sprint distances, through the Classic distances, to the Cup (staying) races.
The "Prvs TTFs" tabs at the top of each page will take you all the way back to the pages for 2003, 2002 & 2001 if you want to see how our structuring strategy was applied to the Flat in those early years online - again with astounding potential.
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Easier than ever to win on the Flat
The prophetic heading above first appeared on this page before the 2001 Flat competition started.  It was prompted by changes made to the competition rules for that season.  The changes came after a survey of entrants' opinions the year before which favoured a later closing date for entries at the end of May, not the end of April.  Our confident prophecy remained true for three years [2001, 2 & 3] after which the later closing date was, unfortunately, changed back to the earlier starting date in 2004.  That rule change put the Flat version of our system out of action. That remained the situation for four more Flat seasons until, in 2008, in an effort to stem the dwindling support for the Flat competiton, the organisers restored a later, more sensible starting date.
The reason the Flat TTF became easier for somebody to win in 2001, and fairer for absolutely everybody, was actually fourfold: (i) most important of all was that the start of the competition was deferred a month, to the beginning of June, just before the English Oaks and Derby, instead of at the beginning of May (just before the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas) - the later start meant there was some current Classic, and major trials' form to go on, (ii) the Godolphin horses that would come to Britain had previously been a dire guessing game but were now much more likely to be known, (iii) the number of horses to choose from for the Flat was halved, from 1,000 down to only 500, (iv) the number of 50-point bonus races was nearly doubled - from only 9 in 1999 to as many as 16 in 2001, with all the new ones being top-class conditions races, as opposed to handicaps, thus making the type of horse to concentrate on even simpler.
In the years prior to 2001, missing out on more than one Classic winner had been like the kiss of death for the rest of the season.  But, thanks to the later start in 2001, and the extra bonus races, the need to bias your entry around a lot of mainly unknown, underexposed 3yo milers (for the two Guineas races) was completely eliminated.  We were so confident that the changes would make it easier than ever to win the Flat competition that 2001 was the year we first posted our Ten To Follow system here on the internet for all to see.  Straightaway, the system went on to produce a line that beat the real winner's score to potentially win the first prize that year of £116,000.
The following year (2002) saw two more official rule changes.  This time, done without canvassing competitors' opinions.  One unfortunate change was the promotion of three Breeders' Cup races from 25-point races to 50-point bonus-status (idea abandoned in subsequent years).  The other unfortunate change was the doubling of the cost of entries from £5 per line to £10 per line.  These new changes sadly resulted in around 25% of people then dropping out of the Flat competition, or having to reduce their number of lines.  But the first-prize for the Flat, that year, nevertheless rose hugely, from £116,000 in 2001, to £166,000 in 2002.  A very nice touch for the winner.  [Our system managed a line potentially worth 2nd prize (£23,740) that year.]
It was another possible 1st prize for the system in 2003.  But then, in 2004, the Flat competition sadly reverted to an earlier (pre-Guineas) closing date in April.  The extra bonus races still meant, at least, that missing more than one Classic winner would not necessarily be the kiss of death it had been before.  Nevertheless, it was obvious the Flat competition was being made impossibly difficult for our systematic approach.  And so it was that, after enjoying remarkable online performances in the three Flat seasons of 2001, 2 & 3, we had to discontinue our Flat shortlists as from 2004.

What next?
As you will have gathered from the preceding item, we stopped participating in the Flat version of the competition after 2003 as the balance between skill and luck had been tipped too far the wrong way for our liking.  Fortunately, the competiton rules were modified for the 2008 season so the Flat version of our system is again viable - and has been revived.
Since 2003, we have, of course, persevered with the Jumps, despite that also having been made more difficult (as of the 2003-4 season).  But not impossibly so - as you will soon gather if you work your way through the other pages in this Racing Section.
Finally, if, at your first attempt at the competition with our system, you do not succeed, do not give up.  Come back to this website to see if there was some aspect of our system that you interpreted incorrectly, or failed to implement accurately.  It is a recognised human failing that we often read what we want to hear, not what is actually being said.  Then go back to the drawing board in good time for the following season.  And remember that just seeing your name on the leader board is a very major achievement in its own right in this competition.  To actually win some money will, frustratingly, always elude all but a tiny, fortunate few.
If you have any comments, queries or, nearer the time, some horses to suggest for possible inclusion in our next Jumps shortlist, click the Contact button below to e-mail us.  We have never knowingly failed to respond to any new, first-time e-mailers.  If you do write but do not get a reply, not even after a while, it will, unfortunately, have meant your e-mail to us, or our reply to you, will have been blocked somewhere along the line by over-zealous anti-spam filters.  So, if it happens to you, please don't bear a grudge or be put off our system because of it 'cos we're nice guys really.
Cheers everybody, and good luck.
  



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   First posting May 2001    Last amended 27.5.08 (dmy)   
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