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     System for the Tote Ten To Follow : Jumps 2008-9     
     Oct 2008:  Welcome to the 11th time our free system for the Totesport Racing Post Ten To Follow competition has appeared in full online.

Our objective is to give anyone picking their own lines of ten purely from our system's shortlist of 36 horses a sporting chance of being the next big winner.  That could certainly have been the case in nine of the ten past postings, when the system gained enough points...		    to have finished, chronologically, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 0, 1st, 4th, 11th (plus a £10K prize), 1st, 1st (plus a £10K prize) & 1st (plus 3 x £10K prizes), potentially netting over £2.1m in prize-money.  The 2008-9 Jumps comp. begins on Fri 14th Nov 2008 and ends on Grand National day, 4th April 2009.

Our 2008-9 shortlist table appears below.  The table is also available as a blank template.		     
 
   Final shortlist posted here 13.11.08 at 8.20pm    View CURRENT position @ 30.11.08   
 
   Our system - The competition's master list of 500 horses is reduced by our team down to just 36 horses max.  This shortlist is then divided into five smaller subgroups to aid perming and ensure well-structured lines.  The system rules are integral in the shortlist table below or are linked to in the table.  Precise perming instructions are denoted by brown text in column 3 of the table.   
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     Key - a key to abbreviations appears after the shortlist.      Convert Irish-race euros to £s hence points (2008)     

Sel
Nos
Categories
(Type of Jumper)		 SHORTLIST (this col) - 32 named horses
Brown text = perming instructions.
[ / ] = results in comp before / after Feb subs.
Blue highlight = best sels. currently

Other horses considered
  Col 2   Rule Col 3   Rule Col 4   Rule

1,
2,
2m Hrdlrs - Chmpn Hdl types.

4-6yo preferred age.

All ages, incl subs in Feb, show as at start of comp.		 Perming - When entering the TTF in November, for your first line of ten, start by taking any two from the four below, then proceed down to note (2)...

      No.  Form Name AgeSex Trainer
1   1050  121- Binocular 4g Hendrsn [25 / ]
2   1106  11-1 Crack Away Jack 4g Lavelle [2 / ]
3   1224  1-23 Katchit 5g King [ / ]
4   1415  110- Sizing Europe 6g Ir [12/3 injd back 2 / ]
Osana 6g Pipe
Snap Tie 6g Hobbs

3,
4,
2m Chsrs - Qn Mother Chase types.

5-8yo preferred.		 (2) ...take any 2 from the 8 below (which are numbered in suggested weighting order), then continue to note (3)...

1   1284  112- Master Minded 5g Nicholls [ / ]
2   1459  11-1 Tidal Bay 7g Hwrd Jhnsn [ / ]
3   Wildcard 1  Rule
7   1483  21-4 Voy Por Ust 7g King [ / ]

Takeroc 5g Nicholls
  2m Nov Chsrs - Arkle Trophy types.
5-8yo preferred.
5   1442  24-1 Tatenen 4g Nicholls [15 / ]
8   1153  04-1 Free World 4g Nicholls [ / ]

Ashkazar 4g Pipe
I'msingingtheblues 6g Nicholls
  3m Nov Chsrs - SunAlliance types.
5-9yo preferred.
4   1022  10/1 Aran Concerto 7g Ir [Len / ]
6   1064  0-11 Breedsbreeze 6g Nicholls [ / ]
Cooldine 6g Ir
Fiveforthree 6g Ir

5,
2½m Hcp Chsrs - Paddy Power types.

5-9yo preferred.

PPGC Rule		 (3) ...take any 1 from the 4 below, then continue down to note (4)...

1   1412  314- Silverburn 7g Nicholls [0 / ]
2   1202  114- Imperial Commander 7g T-Davies [off snc 12/07 57 / ]
3   1037  121- Barbers Shop 6g Hendrsn [12 / ]
4   1045  40-3 Bible Lord 7g Turnell [0 / ]
 

6,
7,
8,
3m Chsrs - King George VI Chase types.  Rule

5-10yo preferred.		 (4) ...take any 3 from the 12 below (numbered in suggested weighting order), then continue to note (5)...

1   1225  22-1 Kauto Star 8g Nicholls [u / ]
4   Wildcard 3 (linked with Voy Por)  Lnkd w/c Rule
7   1350  211- Our Vic 10g Pipe [ / ]
9   1136  03-2 Exotic Dancer 8g, O'Neill [3 / ]

 
  3¼m Chsrs - Chelt Gold Cup types.

5-10yo preferred.
2   1118  111- Denman 8g Nicholls [hrt op, poss rtrn early Feb, dilemma / ]
5   Wildcard 4 (linked with Kauto)  Lnkd w/c Rule
8   1314  131- Neptune Collonges 7g Nicholls [ / ]
10   1485  3/11 War Of Attrition 9g Ir [Tel / ]

 

3¼m Hcp Chsrs - Hennessy GC types.

5-10yo preferred.
3   1046  301- Big Buck's 5g Nicholls [u / ]
6   1083  P3-1 Character Building 8g Quin [nr / ]
11   1008  11-2 Air Force One 6g Mann [Len 12/ ]
12   1394  20-1 Roll Along 8g Llewellyn [nr / ]
Alberta's Run 7g O'Neill

9,
10.
Miscellaneous.

Rule

NH pref 4-6yo
SH pref 5-7yo
NC pref 5-8yo
SC pref 6-11yo		 (5) ...take any 2 from the 8 below to complete the first line of ten, then continue down to note (6)...

1   1204  113- Inglis Drever 9g SH Hwrd J [P 29/11 lm prob out / ]
2   1213  11-1 Jered 6g Ir 2mH [Tel 3 / ]
3   1326  32-1 Noland 7g 2½mC Nicholls [ / ]
4   1467  11-1 Tranquil Sea 6g 3mNC Ir [AC 0/ ]

5   1054  11-1 Blazing Bailey 6g SH King [4 / ]
6   Wildcard 5  Rule
7   1078  0-41 Catch Me 6g 2½mH Ir [JS: 25 / ]
8   1233  20-1 Kicks For Free 7g 3mNC Nicholls [2 / ]

30.11.08 - First of our reader-contributors to get off the mark is Jonathan Sutcliffe with impressive Irish winner Catch Me.  That's fitting as Mr. Sutcliffe had also been on the ball with tips last season.		 1. Other Misc hrdlrs (race-type order)

113- Zaarito 6g 2mNH ex-bmpr Ir [Len / ],
231- Won In The Dark 4g 2mH Ir sm trnr [LDP MA MP: 0 / ]
111- Punjabi 5g 2mH Hndrsn [JS: / ],
112- Whiteoak 5m 2½mH McCain [JM: / ],
2114 Kasbah Bliss 6g SH Fr [poss away till new year / ]
411- Elusive Dream 7g SH Nicholls [JS: 3 / ],
30-4 Kazal 7g SH Ir [LDP: / ]

2. Other Misc chsrs (race-type order)

0-00 Pigeon Island 5g 2mNC T-Davies [MP: 0 / ],
21-1 Tartak 5g George 2½mNC [AC: 3 / ],
321- Gwanako 5g 2½mhC Nicholls [AC: R / ],
011- An Accordian 7g Pipe SC [AC: / ]
(6) ...on completing your first line of ten, return to top of list and pick another line of ten, choosing differing numbers.  Repeat this until you have completed the number of lines you intend to enter.  We recommend, in your first four lines, that you do all 36 selections (including any blanks, pro-rata), so you have covered every horse and every blank at least once in your overall entry.  In each of those first four lines, mix stronger horses and blanks with more speculative horses and, finally, use the blanks as wildcards to fine-tune the lines.  Then, in your subsequent eight or so lines, start to whittle your lesser fancies out so as to pull more of your stronger fancies and pro-rata blanks together.  We suggest about twelve lines altogether - that's £144, which is about £6.64 a week, for a whole season's enjoyment without breaking the bank if things turn out bad this year for either our shortlist or people's choices of tens from it.
Read more on perming      Back to top of table

11,
12
Bonus Horses

8 sels rqd in Feb from which to choose various pairs

Bonus Horse Rule

GN Rule
      No.  Form Name AgeSex Trnr Target
1   1xxx
2   1xxx 
3   1xxx 
4   1xxx 
5   1xxx 
6   1xxx 
7   1xxx 
8   1xxx 
During Jan/Feb, names should be pencilled in left of horses not in the shortlist which emerge as live prospects to win at Cheltenham and/or Aintree.  Pairs of these can be added to any worthwhile lines for free in February in time to try to win £25K for most points at Cheltenham or £10K for most points in March.
     Key to abbreviations possibly used in the above table:-
[ / ] = a horse's results in the competition before and after substitution time, an example follows...
[CR: 30 25 / P] in this example, the horse was submitted by reader 'CR' , the horse was 3rd on its first run, unplaced and favourite (underlined) on its second run, 25 points winner and favourite (underlined) on its third run and, after the February additions' window, was pulled up on its final run in the competition.
7, 8 etc. = a horse's age denoted in red, whether an original horse or a February addition, was outside of the preferred age range (in November) as indicated in column 2 (also see under 'red' in this section)    C = Chaser    CH = Champion Hurdle type    col = column    d = dead    eas = on easy list    Fr = French trainer    GC = Gold Cup    H = Hurdler   inj = injury or injured    Ir = Irish Trainer    m = mare    NC = Novice Chaser    NH = Novice Hurdler    nr = non-runner in either of targeted first two bonus races     out = reportedly out for rest of season or, at least, remainder of competition    pd = put down    poss = possible or possibility    PP = Paddy Power Gold Cup    red = all remarks in red are a definite negative for the competition, though not always a bar to inclusion in our shortlist    SC = Staying Chaser    Sel = selection    SH = Staying Hurdler    sm = small    trnr = trainer    yo = years old at start of season		     

   Five of the six scoring horses from the system's shortlist (col 3 above) are as follows...   
     
   Type        Horse Points   
  2m hurdlers
(2 sels per line)		 •  Binocular 25      
  •    00      
  QM, Arkle & R&SA Chase
types (2 sels per line)		 •    00      
  •  Tatenen 15      
  Paddy Power sel (1 per line) •  Imperial Commander 57      
  3m+ chasers (3 sels per
line)		 •    00      
  •    00      
  •  Air Force One 12      
  Misc (NH, NC, SH, SC or
W/card)  (2 sels per line)		 •    00      
  •  Catch Me 25      
  Bonus Horse   After Feb     00  
  Bonus Horse   After Feb     00  
      System's total from above at 30/11   =  134  
      Real leader's score at 29/11   =   164  
  
Official Leaderboard  Jumps 2008-9
 		   
Comments in running (last one first) Back to top
30.11.08 - 134 pts - Includes 25 points from Catch Me in the Miscellaneous section, courtesy of top man Jonathan Sutcliffe from Cheltenham.  So far, 18 of the 32 horses have run and a third of those have scored points.  Of the 12 which failed to score, 7 were losing favourites.  Here we go again!
29.11.08 (2) - 109 pts - A possible total from our shortlist, after the Hennessy, was 109 from four of the five scoring horses.  This was good enough to be on the leader-board, sharing rock bottom place with millions of others on the same score.  Meanwhile, the new real leader was 55 ahead of that on 164.  This low score of 109, after the first two weeks, represents the worst-ever start for our shortlist, worse even than on the system's complete blow out in 2002-3.
25.11.08 - 97 pts - The first leaderboard appeared in the Racing Post today (Tuesday).  The real leader was on 144. One possible total from our shortlist was 97, from three winners, which was 12 points off the bottom of the first leader board.
 
   System's Rules

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