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     System for the Tote Ten To Follow : Jumps 2009-10     
   Intro, Oct 2009:  Welcome to the 12th time our free system for the Totesport/Racing Post Ten To Follow competition has appeared here in full online.

Our objective is to give anyone picking their own lines of ten purely from our system's shortlist of horses a sporting chance of being the next big winner.  That could certainly have been the case in ten of the past eleven postings, when the system gained enough...		      points to have finished, since 2001:  1st, 1st, 2nd, 0, 1st, 4th, 11th + £10K prize, 1st, 1st + £10K prize, 1st + 3 x £10K prizes and, last season, 3rd.  Altogether, potentially netting over £2.1m in prize-money.  The 2009-10 Jumps comp. begins on Fri 13th Nov 2009 and ends on Grand National day, 10th April 2010.

Our 2009-10 shortlist table appears below.  The table is also available as a blank .doc or .htm template.		   
 
   Final shortlist will be posted here 12.11.09      View current performance as at 01.12.09   
 
   Our system:  The competition's master list of 400 horses is reduced by our team down to just 36 horses or fewer.  This shortlist is then divided into five smaller subgroups which further aids perming and sensible structuring of lines.  Perming instructions are denoted by brown text in column 3 of the table below.  The system's other rules are integral in the table, or are accessed by blue links in the table.     
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7.11.09 - We are inviting a few more well-considered horses to be emailed to us, for consideration for the Misc section, on Monday 9th, i.e. after this weekend's Jumps racing.  Tips, or further tips, for horses already in col 4 are permissible, not just unlisted horses.  An update of this page next Monday evening will see the...      list taking its near-final shape.  The final version of the list will appear here on the evening of Thurs, 12th Nov, in time for internet entries before the 12 noon deadline the following day, Friday 13th.  Postal entries should use the current list shown here after next Monday as their guide. 
  
 
 
   Key - a key to abbreviations appears under the shortlist.      Convert Irish-race euros to £s hence points   

Sel
Nos
Categories
(Type of Jumper)		 SHORTLIST (this col) = 36 named horses max
Brown text = perming instructions.

Other horses being considered for col 3 only if space available
  Col 2 (See rule) Col 3 (See rule) Col 4 (See rule)

1,
2,
2m Hrdlrs - Chmpn Hdl types, 4 max, 4-6yo preferred age.

All ages, incl subs in Feb, are always shown as at start of comp in Nov.		 (1) Perming - When entering the TTF in November, for your first line of ten, start by taking any two from the first four below, then proceed down to note (2)...

     No. Form   Name AgeSex Trainer [Res]
1   1152  111-   Hurricane Fly 5g Ir/Mullins [ / ]
2   1048  113-   Binocular 5g Hendrsn [ / ]
3   1332  111-   Solwhit 5g Ir/Byrnes [ / ]
4   vacant for   now



Punjabi
Celestial Halo 5g Nicholls
 

3,
4,
2m Chsrs - Qn Mother Chase types, 4 max, 5-8yo preferred.		 (2) ...take any 2 from the 8 below (which are numbered in suggested weighting order), then continue to note (3)...

1   1210  111-   Master Minded 6g Nicholls [ / ]
2   vacant   See w/card rule
3   1047  F12-   Big Zeb 8g Ir/Murphy [ / ]
7   1173  212-   Kalahari King 8g FMurphy [ / ]


Barker
 
  2m Nov Chsrs - Arkle types, 2 max, 5-8yo preferred.
5   1326  41-1   Sizing Europe 7g Ir/Bromhd [ / ]
8   1093  254-   Crack Away Jack 5g Lavelle [ / ]
Tataniano
10-1Catch Me 7g Ir
  3m Nov Chsrs - RSA types, 2 max, 5-9yo preferred.
4   1217  111-   Mikael D'Haguenet 5g Ir/Mullins [ / ]
6   1285  122-   Punchestowns 6g Hendrsn [ / ]
Bensalem

5,
2½m Hcp Chsrs - Paddy Power types, 4 max, 5-9yo preferred.		 (3) ...take any 1 from the 4 below, then continue down to note (4)...

1   1073  1F2-   Chapoturgeon 5g Nicholls [ / ]
2   vacant   2nd fav not in comp See PPGC rule, 3rd para
3   1354  111-   Tarotino 7g King [ / ]
4   1357  F20-   Tatenen 5g Nicholls [ / ]
PPGC and Ryanair Rule

6,
7,
8,
3m Chsrs - King George VI types, 4 max, 5-10yo preferred.		 (4) ...take any 3 from the 12 below (numbered in suggested weighting order), then continue to note (5)...

1   1178  U11-   Kauto Star 9g Nicholls [ / ]
4   1200  101-   Madison du Berlais 8g Pipe [ / ]
7   1155  01P-   Imperial Commander 8g T-Davies [ / ]
9   1xxx  figs-    


13-0 Nacarat

3m+ Chasers rule
 
3¼m Chsrs - Chelt Gold Cup types, 4 max, 5-10yo preferred.
2   vacant   See Linked w/card rule (linked to Kauto)
5   1101  22F-   Denman 9g Nicholls [ / ]
8   1089  114-   Cooldine 7g Ir/Mullins [ / ]
10   1xxx  figs-    
Notre Pere
 


3¼m Hcp Chsrs - Hennessy GC types, 4 max, 5-10yo preferred.
3 1393  101- What A Friend 6g Nicholls [ / ]
6 vacant See Linked w/card rule (linked to Denman)
11 1184  P1-2 Killyglen 7g Johnson [ / ]
12 1065  11-3 Cappa Bleu 7g E Williams [ / ]
Carruthers
Gone To Lunch

9,
10.
Miscellaneous types, 8 max, preferred ages
NH 4-6yo,
SH 5-7yo,
NC 5-8yo,
SC 6-11yo.		 (5) ...take any 2 from the 8 below to complete the first line of ten, then continue down to note (6)...

1   1044  111-   Big Bucks SH 6g Nicholls [ / ]
2   1037  121-   Barker 8g 2m+C Ir/Mullins [JS (for Ir chases): / ]
3   1xxx  figs-    
4   vacant   See w/card rule
5   1399  111-   Zaynar SH 4g Hendrsn [ / ]
6   1xxx  figs-    
7   1xxx  figs-    
8   1xxx  figs-    

Voy Por Ustedes 8g 2m+C King,
Starluck 4 2mNH Fleming sm trnr [JM: /],
10-1 Dunguib 6g 2mNH Ir/Fenton [Ian: / ]
Schindlers Hunt 9 Ir [MP (for Ir chases): / ]
Barbers Shop 7g 2½mC Hndrsn [MP: / ]
Aran Concerto 8g Ir [KJ, for Ir chases: / ]
Fiveforthree SH,
Karabak SH,

Misc Rule
(6) ...on completing your first line of ten, return to top of list and pick another line of ten, choosing differing numbers.  Repeat this until you have completed the number of lines you intend to enter.  We recommend, in your first four lines, that you include all 36 selections (including all blank sels.), so you have covered every horse and every blank at least once in your overall entry.  In each of those first four lines, mix stronger horses and blanks with more speculative horses and, finally, fill in the blanks as wildcards to fine-tune the lines.  Then, in your subsequent eight or so lines, start to whittle your lesser fancies out so as to pull more of your stronger fancies and pro-rata blanks together.  We suggest about twelve lines altogether - that's £144 for postal entries, which is about £6.64 a week for a whole season's enjoyment without breaking the bank if things turn out bad this year for either our shortlist or your choices of tens from it.
Read more on perming      Back to top of table
11,
12		 Bonus Horses

8 sels rqd in Feb from which to choose various pairs per line

All ages, including bonus horses, are always shown as at start of comp in Nov.

Bonus Horse Rule

GN Rule
    No. Form   Name AgeSex Trnr (Target race)
1   1xxx  f /f    
2   1xxx  f /f    
3   1xxx  f /f    
4   1xxx  f /f    
5   1xxx  f /f    
6   1xxx  f /f    
7   1xxx  f /f    
8   1xxx  f /f    
Come the end of February, for any promising lines you have for the overall prize or just the Chelt/March £25K/£10K consolation prizes, pick pairs of bonus horses to add to each such line from any of the original 32+ names from col 3 above which are still viable and not already used in the line in question, and/or from the few new names just above.  Vary the horses you add to your lines according to the present make-up and strengths of each individual line.  In practice there is nothing to stop you bringing in other horses as subs if you so prefer, but the published performance of the system itself is tied to just the specific horses above.		 Others considered...

1xxx  f /f
1xxx  f /f]
 
f /f = form figs (to be added later). A figure after the / will indicate horse has had benefit of a pre-Cheltenham prep-race.
   Key to abbreviations...

/  = a forward slash is used to separate a horse's results in the competition before/after the Thursday/Friday of the 2nd week in January, the same time as in previous seasons (when it used to mark the old January deadline for making substitutions).  From 2009, the / serves solely to show which shortlisted horses go into Cheltenham with/without the benefit of a prep-run in the 2 months prior to the Festival.

[CR: 04f 25jf / F c- a3] = an example of a horse's results in the competition showing: the horse was submitted by a reader (with initials CR:); on its first run the horse was unplaced (0); on its second run it finished fourth (4) when also favourite for the race (f); on its third run the horse scored 25 points (25 in bold) when a joint favourite for the race (jf); then came the 2nd week in January (/); on its fourth run the horse fell (F) and was not the favourite (i.e. not Ff); the horse failed to run at Cheltenham (c-); at Aintree it finished 3rd and was not the favourite (a3).

7, 8 etc. = a horse's age denoted in red, whether an original horse or a later February addition, was outside of the preferred age range (in November) specified in column 2 (also see below under 'red' in this para)

a = in a horse's results, horse  ran at Aintree in April  :  c = in a horse's results, horse ran at Cheltenham in March  :  c- = in a horse's results, horse failed to run at Cheltenham in March  :  C = Chaser  :  CH = Champion Hurdle  :  col = column  :  d = dead  :  eas = on easy list  :  f  = favourite  :  F = Fell over, throwing rider off  :  Fr = French trainer  :  GC = Gold Cup  :  H = Hurdler  :  hc or hcp = handicap  :  inj = injury or injured  :  Ir = Irish Trainer  :  jf = joint favourite  :  K = knuckled on landing causing rider to fall off  :  m = mare  :  NC = Novice Chaser  :  NH = Novice Hurdler  :  nr = non-runner in either of targeted first two bonus races  :  out = reportedly out for rest of season or, at least, for remainder of competition  :  P = Pulled up  :  pd = put down  :  poss = possible or possibility  :  PP = Paddy Power Gold Cup  :  [Res] = results box  :  red = all remarks in red are a definite negative for the competition, though not always a bar to inclusion in our shortlist  :  S = skidded on landing causing rider to fall off  :  SC = Staying Chaser  :  Sel = selection  :  SH = Staying Hurdler  :  sm trnr = small trainer  :  U = unseated rider after a bad jump  :  vac or vacant = vacant slot (as defined in main rules)  :  yo = years old as at November of current season (ages are not changed for Jan 1st birthdays, including for bonus horses added in February).		   

   Best possible rule-compliant lines from the system's shortlist (col 3 above) are as follows...   
           
   Type        Horse   Pts   
  2m hurdlers (2 sels per line) •  Name (Trainer)      
  •  Name (Trainer)      
  QM, Arkle or RSA Chase
types (2 sels per line)		 •  Name (Trainer)      
  •  Name (Trainer)      
  Paddy Power sel •  Name (Trainer)      
  3m+ chasers (3 sels per
line)		 •  Name (Trainer)      
  •  Name (Trainer)      
  •  Name (Trainer)    
  Misc (NH, NC, SH, SC or
W/card)  (2 sels per line)		 •  Name (Trainer)      
  •  Name (Trainer)      
  Feb Bonus Horse 1*          
  Feb Bonus Horse 2*          
      System's best score   = ???  
      Real leader's score   = ???  
      View official leaderboard      

Comments in running (latest first) Back to top
xx.11.09 - xx pts - The first leader-board appeared today in Tuesday's Racing Post.  The real leader was on 1xx points.  Our shortlist's best line was on xx points.


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