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     System for the Tote Ten To Follow : Jumps 2009-10     
   Intro, Oct 2009:  Welcome to the 12th time our free system for the Totesport/Racing Post Ten To Follow competition has appeared here in full online.

Our objective is to give anyone picking their own lines of ten purely from our system's shortlist of horses a sporting chance of being the next big winner.  That could certainly have been the case in ten of the past eleven postings, when the system gained enough...		      points to have finished, since 2001:  1st, 1st, 2nd, 0, 1st, 4th, 11th + £10K prize, 1st, 1st + £10K prize, 1st + 3 x £10K prizes and, last season, 3rd.  Altogether, potentially netting over £2.1m in prize-money.  The 2009-10 Jumps comp. begins on Fri 13th Nov 2009 and ends on Grand National day, 10th April 2010.

Our 2009-10 shortlist table appears below.  The table was also available as a .doc or .htm blank template.		   
 
   Final list posted here 12.11.09 at 7.20pm      View current performance @ 20.11.09
Progress of readers' contributions 		  
 
   Our system:  The competition's master list of 400 horses is reduced by our team down to just 36 horses or fewer (32 this year).  This shortlist is then divided into five smaller subgroups which further aids perming and ensures strategic structuring of lines.  Perming instructions are denoted by brown text in column 3 of the table below.  The system's other rules are integral in the table, or are accessed by blue links in the table.     
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   Key to abbreviations - appears below the shortlist.      Convert Irish-race euros to £s hence points   
  Col 2 Col 3 Col 4

Sel
Nos
Categories
(Type of Jumper)		 SHORTLIST (this col) = 32 named horses
Brown text = November's perming instructions.
Blue = scorers to date.
[ / ] = results before/after 2nd week in Jan.

Other horses considered for col 3 but not used
  Col 2 rule Col 3 rule Col 4 rule

1,
2,
2m Hrdlrs - Chmpn Hdl types, 4 max, 4-6yo preferred age.

All ages, incl subs in Feb, are always shown as at start of comp in Nov.		 (1) Perming - When entering the TTF in November, for your first line of ten, start by taking any two from the first four below, then proceed down to note (2)...

xxx
     No. Form   Name AgeSex Trainer
1   1152  111-   Hurricane Fly 5g Ir/Mullins [3f / ]
2   1048  113-   Binocular 5g Hendrsn [ / ]
3   1072  20-1   Celestial Halo 5g Nicholls [ / ]
4   1286  312-   Punjabi 6g Hendrsn [18/11 setback / ]
 

3,
4,
2m Chsrs - Qn Mother Chase types, 4 max, 5-8yo preferred.		 (2) ...take any 2 from the 8 below (which are numbered in suggested weighting order), then continue to note (3)...

1   1210  111-   Master Minded 6g Nicholls [3f / ]
2   1047  12-1   Big Zeb 8g Ir/Murphy [ / ]
3       Wildcard - see rule
7   1173  212-   Kalahari King 8g FMurphy [ / ]
 
  2m Nov Chsrs - Arkle types, 2 max, 5-8yo preferred.
5   1093  41-1   Crack Away Jack 5g Lavelle [ / ]
8   1326  54-1   Sizing Europe 7g Ir/Bromhd [20f / ]
 
  3m Nov Chsrs - RSA types, 2 max, 5-9yo preferred.
4   1217  111-   Mikael D'Haguenet 5g Ir/Mullins [ / ]
6   1285  122-   Punchestowns 6g Hendrsn [Tel: / ]
 

5,
2½m Hcp Chsrs - Paddy Power types, 4 max, 5-9yo preferred.		 (3) ...take any 1 from the 4 below, then continue down to note (4)...

1   1375  02-1   Tranquil Sea 7g Ir/O'Grady [SS: 54f / ]
2   1073  1F2-   Chapoturgeon 5g Nicholls [F / ]
3   1034  22P-   Ballyfitz 9g Twiston-D [MO: 4/ ]
4   1357  F20-   Tatenen 5g Nicholls [U / ]

PPGC and Ryanair Rule

6,
7,
8,
3m Chsrs - King George VI types, 4 max, 5-10yo preferred.		 (4) ...take any 3 from the 12 below (numbered in suggested weighting order), then continue to note (5)...

1   1178  U11-   Kauto Star 9g Nicholls [ / ]
4   1200  101-   Madison du Berlais 8g Pipe [ / ]
7   1237  13-0   Nacarat 8g George [16/11 setback / ]
9   1155  01P-   Imperial Commander 8g T-Davies [ / ]


3m+ Chasers rule
  3¼m Chsrs - Chelt Gold Cup types, 4 max, 5-10yo preferred.
2       Wildcard linked to Kauto - see rule
5   1101  22F-   Denman 9g Nicholls [ / ]
8   1089  114-   Cooldine 7g Ir/Mullins [ / ]
10   1248  2-1F   Notre Pere 8g Ir/Dreaper [ / ]
 

3¼m Hcp Chsrs - Hennessy GC types, 4 max, 5-10yo preferred.
3       Wildcard linked to Denman - see rule
6   1393  101-   What A Friend 6g Nicholls [ / ]
11 1184  P1-2 Killyglen 7g Johnson [ / ]
12   1065  11-3   Cappa Bleu 7g Williams [PJ: / ]

Trafford Lad [MO: 17/11 injd leg / ],
Casey Jones [MO: / ],

9,
10.
Miscellaneous types, 8 max, preferred ages
NH 4-6yo,
SH 5-7yo,
NC 5-8yo,
SC 6-11yo.

Misc Rule		 (5) ...take any 2 from the 8 below to complete the first line of ten, then continue down to note (6)...

1   1044  111-   Big Buck's SH 6g Nicholls [ / ]
2   1383  121-   Voy Por Ustedes 8g 2m+C King [ / ]
3   1037  121-   Barker 8g 2m+C Ir/Mullins [JS (for Ir chases): / ]
4       Wildcard - see rule
5   1332  111-   Solwhit 5g 2m+H Ir/Byrnes [JS: 25 / ]
6   1110  10-1   Dunguib 6g 2mNH Ir/Fenton [Ian: 10f / ]
7   1310  22-2   Schindlers Hunt 9g 3m+C Ir/Hughes [MP (for Ir chases): / ]
8   1295  141-   Rare Bob 7g 3m+C Ir/Hughes [MO (for Ir chases): / ]

14.11.09 - We received five tips of PPGC/Hennessy types, not Misc types.  But we still credited them because none were in our posted groups of four when received.  So, well done Sam Symonds from Evesham for being our first reader to hit 25+ points (with Tranquil Sea).  We said of Sam last season that we needed some female intuition onboard and it's paid off handsomely.  We were also going to use her Fiveforthree too, which could have been another nice earner, but then the setback news.

15.11.09 - When Solwhit was squeezed out of col 3 in the top group by Celestial Halo's entry, reader Jonathan Sutcliffe told us to put it back in, in the Misc section.  JS was our top contributor the last two seasons and, with 25 points already from Solwhit, it looks like he's on the rampage again.		 Results below for readers' tips will be updated periodically.

Other Misc hrdlrs considered (in race-type order)

43-1 Starluck 4g 2mNH Fleming sm trnr [JM: /],
2211 Jumbo Rio 4g 2m+H Ir/O'Grady [JC: (2) / ],
00-2 Red Maloney 5g NhH Johnson [SS: / ],
111- Fiveforthree 7g SH Ir/Mullins 10/11 eas, 12/11 out [SS: -/-]

Other Misc chsrs considered (in race-type order)

21-3 Copper Bleu 7g 2m+NC Hobbs [SS: / ],
U02- Cousin Vinny 6g Ir/Mullins [MO (for 2m+NCs in Ir): / ],
11-1 Master Medic 8g 2¼mhC Alner [LS: / ],
33-1 Planet of Sound 7g 2-2½mhC Hobbs [SS: / ],
P11- Gauvain 7g 2½mhC Mann [LS: / ],
210- Barbers Shop 7g 2½m+C Hndrsn [MP: / ],
04P- Dear Villez 7g 3m+hC Nichols [MO: / ],
1-32 Joncol 6g 3m+C Ir/Nolan [JS: / ],
/11- Aran Concerto 8g 3m+C Ir/Meade [KJ (for Ir chases): / ],
(6) ...on completing your first line of ten, return to top of list and pick another line of ten, choosing differing numbers.  Repeat this until you have completed the number of lines you intend to enter.  We recommend, in your first four lines, that you include all 36 selections (including all blank sels.), so you have covered every horse and every blank at least once in your overall entry.  In each of those first four lines, mix stronger horses and blanks with more speculative horses and, finally, fill in the blanks as wildcards to fine-tune the lines.  Then, in your subsequent eight or so lines, start to whittle your lesser fancies out so as to pull more of your stronger fancies and pro-rata blanks together.  We suggest about twelve lines altogether - that's £144 for postal entries, which is about £6.64 a week for a whole season's enjoyment without breaking the bank if things turn out bad this year for either our shortlist or your choices of tens from it.
Read more on perming      Back to top of table
11,
12		 Bonus Horses

8 sels rqd in Feb from which to choose various pairs per line

All ages, including bonus horses, are always shown as at start of comp in Nov.

Bonus Horse Rule

GN Rule
    No. Form   Name AgeSex Trnr (Target race)
1   1xxx  f /f    
2   1xxx  f /f    
3   1xxx  f /f    
4   1xxx  f /f    
5   1xxx  f /f    
6   1xxx  f /f    
7   1xxx  f /f    
8   1xxx  f /f    
Come the end of February, for any promising lines you have for the overall prize or just the Chelt/March £25K/£10K consolation prizes, pick pairs of bonus horses to add to each such line from any of the original 32+ names from col 3 above which are still viable and not already used in the line in question, and/or from the few new names just above.  Vary the horses you add to your lines according to the present make-up and strengths of each individual line.  In practice there is nothing to stop you bringing in other horses as subs if you so prefer, but the published performance of the system itself is tied to just the specific horses above.		 Others considered...

1xxx  f /f
1xxx  f /f]
 
f /f = form figs (to be added later). A figure after the / will indicate horse has had benefit of a pre-Cheltenham prep-race.
   Key to abbreviations...

/  = a forward slash is used to separate a horse's results in the competition before/after the Thursday/Friday of the 2nd week in January. This / was used in competitions prior to 2009 to show results before/after the January substitution time.  In competitions from 2009 (when substitutions take place later, at the end of February), the forward slash serves as an indicator of which horses will be going into Cheltenham with/without the benefit of a prep-run in the 2 months prior to the Festival.

[CR: 04f 25jf (2) / F c- a3] = a horse's results in the competition, in this example showing: the horse was submitted by a reader i.e. initials CR; on its first run the horse was unplaced i.e. 0; on its second run it finished fourth i.e. 4 - when also favourite for the race i.e. f; on its third run the horse scored 25 points i.e. 25 in bold - when a joint favourite for the race i.e. jf; on its 4th run the horse ran second in a foreign or other race which did not qualify for the competition i.e. (2); then came the 2nd week in January i.e. /; on its fifth run the horse fell i.e. F - and was not the favourite i.e. not Ff; the horse failed to run at Cheltenham i.e. c-; finally, at Aintree, it finished 3rd and was not the favourite i.e. a3.

7, 8 etc. = a horse's age denoted in red, whether an original horse or a later February addition, was outside of the preferred age range (in November) specified in column 2 (also see below under 'red' in this para)

a = in a horse's results, horse  ran at Aintree in April  :  c = in a horse's results, horse ran at Cheltenham in March  :  c- = in a horse's results, horse failed to run at Cheltenham in March  :  C = Chaser  :  CH = Champion Hurdle  :  col = column  :  d = dead  :  eas = on easy list  :  f  = favourite  :  F = Fell over, throwing rider off  :  Fr = French trainer  :  GC = Gold Cup  :  H = Hurdler  :  h, hc or hcp = handicap  :  inj = injury or injured  :  Ir = Irish Trainer  :  jf = joint favourite  :  K = knuckled on landing causing rider to fall off  :  m = mare  :  NC = Novice Chaser  :  NH = Novice Hurdler  :  nr = non-runner in either of targeted first two bonus races  :  out = reportedly out for rest of season or, at least, for remainder of competition  :  P = Pulled up  :  pd = put down  :  poss = possible or possibility  :  PP = Paddy Power Gold Cup  :  [Res] = results box  :  red = all remarks in red are a definite negative for the competition, though not always a bar to inclusion in our shortlist  :  S = skidded on landing causing rider to fall off  :  SC = Staying Chaser  :  Sel = selection  :  SH = Staying Hurdler  :  sm trnr = small trainer  :  U = unseated rider after a bad jump  :  vac or vacant = vacant slot (as defined in main rules)  :  yo = years old as at November of current season (ages are not changed for Jan 1st birthdays, including for bonus horses added in February).		   

   Best possible rule-compliant line from the system's shortlist (col 3 above) is as follows...   
           
   Type        Horse   Pts   
  2m hurdlers (2 sels per line) •  Hurricane Fly (Ir)   0  
  •  Binocular (Hndrsn)   0  
  QM, Arkle or RSA Chase
types (2 sels per line)		 •  Master Minded (Nichols)   0  
  •  Sizing Europe (Ir)   20  
  Paddy Power sel •  Tranquil Sea (Ir)   54  
  3m+ chasers (3 sels per
line)		 •  Kauto Star (Nichols)   0  
  •  Wildcard   0  
  •  Denman (Nicholls)   0
  Misc (NH, NC, SH, SC or
W/card)  (2 sels per line)		 •  Solwhit (Ir)   25  
  •  Dunguib (Ir)   10  
  Feb Bonus Horse 1*          
  Feb Bonus Horse 2*          
      System's best score   = 109  
      Real leader's score   = 134  
      View official leaderboard      

Comments in running (latest first) Back to top
20.11.09 - 109 pts - The first leader-board appeared today in Friday's Racing Post, earlier than ever this year.  The real leader was on 134.  There was a possible total from our shortlist of 109, from four scoring horses, which was equivalent to co-29th place.  We recognised a couple of our readers' teams' names on that mark.  No such luck for ourselves, but it's still early days.
15.11.09 - 109 pts - After the first three days, the shortlist had had runners in five races, resulting in four winners but two ignominious odds-on losing favourites.


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